TOP tends to be the result of a good team,
by nedhead 
, Tuesday, July 27, 2010, 03:22 (5798 days ago) @ APND02
not the cause. Offhand, I can't think of a more pointless stat in any sport that people actually use than TOP. Even total plays seems better to me than TOP. The correlation between total plays and winning should be worse than the correlation between TOP and winning, but that doesn't make TOP a worse metric - the correlation is worse because a team that is winning in the 4th quarter runs the ball more than the losing team, so TOP increases.
Essentially, if you want to know which team won, you could look at TOP, but you'd be better off looking at the score, which turns out to be perfectly correlated with winning. The TOP doesn't provide any information in addition to the score that is not better evaluated with a different stat.
Complete thread:
- [original post] some thoughts on TOP and game pacing -
HumanRobot,
2010-07-26, 14:17
![[*]](themes/default/images/complete_thread.png "Open whole thread")
- what do you think of this? -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 18:45
- The defensive variables are more significant -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 21:42
- that's the intent of the proof -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:54
- Also, TOP and tempo don't necessarily go hand in hand. -
LaFortune Teller,
2010-07-26, 22:10
- Interesting.
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APND02,
2010-07-27, 05:07
- Interesting.
- Also, TOP and tempo don't necessarily go hand in hand. -
LaFortune Teller,
2010-07-26, 22:10
- that's the intent of the proof -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:54
- I didn't look at the data, but is it -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:02
- it seems to show defense > offense - Jay, 2010-07-26, 21:33
- The defensive variables are more significant -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 21:42
- Very interesting -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 16:28
- TOP is overrated -
MHB (Rakes of Mallow),
2010-07-26, 19:19
- It may be overrated as a measure of team success, but -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:05
- TOP tends to be the result of a good team, -
nedhead,
2010-07-27, 03:22
- I think this is the correct answer. Well put. -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:56
- I think this is the correct answer. Well put.
- this dovetails nicely -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:37
- Jay, did you look at whether or not a heavy dose of run -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:55
- I haven't -
Jay,
2010-07-27, 08:53
- I didn't find it to be a critical factor, mostly because - APND02, 2010-07-27, 11:02
- I haven't -
Jay,
2010-07-27, 08:53
- This could absolutely be it. Although I wouldn't say they - APND02, 2010-07-27, 05:02
- Jay, did you look at whether or not a heavy dose of run -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:55
- TOP tends to be the result of a good team, -
nedhead,
2010-07-27, 03:22
- It may be overrated as a measure of team success, but -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:05
- also -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 17:12
- I absolutely agree with you Jay. -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 17:20
- I think TOP matters more in the NFL - Geoff, 2010-07-27, 03:09
- I absolutely agree with you Jay. -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 17:20
- TOP is overrated -
MHB (Rakes of Mallow),
2010-07-26, 19:19
- good stuff -
Pat,
2010-07-26, 14:40
- what do you think of this? -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 18:45