what do you think of this?
I did a quick correlation calc between TOP and Offensive ypp/ypg, and Defensive ypp/ypg.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aqu7YH9xlSk0dDFIb1BnSDQyVmxER2hRR3R0UVJzcUE&...
I ran this for four years' worth of data (2006-09).
It really looks like better defenses (by these measures) are much more strongly correlated to TOP than better offenses. (In the case of Yards Per Game, the difference is pretty stark, I think).
TOP Correlation to Yards Per Play
0.078 Offense YPP
0.120 Defense YPP (+.042 better correlation)
TOP Correlation to Yards Per Game
0.138 Offense YPG
0.354 Defense YPG (+.216 better correlation)
You guys can check my math; I might be all wet on this or I forgot something significant. I threw this together in about 20 minutes, but the results surprised me. I figured it would be a lot closer to even.
This seems to show us that defense is a stronger determinant of a team's TOP than offense.
Complete thread:
- [original post] some thoughts on TOP and game pacing -
HumanRobot,
2010-07-26, 14:17
![[*]](themes/default/images/complete_thread.png "Open whole thread")
- what do you think of this? -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 18:45
- The defensive variables are more significant -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 21:42
- that's the intent of the proof -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:54
- Also, TOP and tempo don't necessarily go hand in hand. -
LaFortune Teller,
2010-07-26, 22:10
- Interesting.
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APND02,
2010-07-27, 05:07
- Interesting.
- Also, TOP and tempo don't necessarily go hand in hand. -
LaFortune Teller,
2010-07-26, 22:10
- that's the intent of the proof -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:54
- I didn't look at the data, but is it -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:02
- it seems to show defense > offense - Jay, 2010-07-26, 21:33
- The defensive variables are more significant -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 21:42
- Very interesting -
suave_andrew,
2010-07-26, 16:28
- TOP is overrated -
MHB (Rakes of Mallow),
2010-07-26, 19:19
- It may be overrated as a measure of team success, but -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:05
- TOP tends to be the result of a good team, -
nedhead,
2010-07-27, 03:22
- I think this is the correct answer. Well put. -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:56
- I think this is the correct answer. Well put.
- this dovetails nicely -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 21:37
- Jay, did you look at whether or not a heavy dose of run -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:55
- I haven't -
Jay,
2010-07-27, 08:53
- I didn't find it to be a critical factor, mostly because - APND02, 2010-07-27, 11:02
- I haven't -
Jay,
2010-07-27, 08:53
- This could absolutely be it. Although I wouldn't say they - APND02, 2010-07-27, 05:02
- Jay, did you look at whether or not a heavy dose of run -
APND02,
2010-07-27, 06:55
- TOP tends to be the result of a good team, -
nedhead,
2010-07-27, 03:22
- It may be overrated as a measure of team success, but -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 20:05
- also -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 17:12
- I absolutely agree with you Jay. -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 17:20
- I think TOP matters more in the NFL - Geoff, 2010-07-27, 03:09
- I absolutely agree with you Jay. -
APND02,
2010-07-26, 17:20
- TOP is overrated -
MHB (Rakes of Mallow),
2010-07-26, 19:19
- good stuff -
Pat,
2010-07-26, 14:40
- what do you think of this? -
Jay,
2010-07-26, 18:45