More anecdotal than what you're looking for
by CW (Rakes) 
, Harlan County, Sunday, June 13, 2010, 14:07 (5841 days ago) @ suave_andrew
...but it does confirm what your data is showing.
BGS, Dr. Saturday and MGo all did pieces where they went back over Top 100's from four or five years ago and looked at the success rate. More often than not the ranking services were very accurate in their projections, especially if you factor out things that would be more difficult to account for than just talent (injury, academics, headcases). Some quick Googling has yielded me nothing, but I'll keep poking around.
Complete thread:
- Ongoing recruiting project -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 12:04
![[*]](themes/default/images/complete_thread.png "Open whole thread")
- cool chart -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 15:25
- Cincinnati was in Conference USA until recently -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 15:41
- oh, forgot about that -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 15:56
- relative recruiting rankings since 2005 -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 17:40
- I did a similar analysis after Kelly was hired - BPH, 2010-06-13, 18:06
- relative recruiting rankings since 2005 -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 17:40
- oh, forgot about that -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 15:56
- Cincinnati was in Conference USA until recently -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 15:41
- Very interesting. - Jim (fisherj08), 2010-06-13, 14:43
- More anecdotal than what you're looking for -
CW (Rakes),
2010-06-13, 14:07
- I recall the ones posted on BGS -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 14:30
- BGS links - Jay, 2010-06-13, 14:47
- It may be useful to look at the record against top 30 teams -
Mobster,
2010-06-13, 14:38
- Scheduling always throws a monkey wrench into this -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 14:46
- I like to use power ratings - Jeff (BGS), 2010-06-13, 16:42
- Scheduling always throws a monkey wrench into this -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 14:46
- I recall the ones posted on BGS -
suave_andrew,
2010-06-13, 14:30
- cool chart -
HumanRobot,
2010-06-13, 15:25