Some Observations

by Joe I , Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 11:59 (12 days ago) @ BPH
edited by Joe I, Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 12:36

Caveat: Politics are all about "in-the-moment".

Almost everything Trump and the GOP are saying and doing now indicate a likely blue wave come November, but there is high expectation of GOP attempts to disrupt the election results via numerous mechanisms. Leading into and beyond November, the Dems need to develop a plan to return voters into the Dem fold, by actually listening and enacting measures that will impact their lives.

1) MI Senate - Not a Michigander, but: Before the McMorrow revelations, she was the frontrunner. While Stevens has been the most vocal about the McMorrow revelations, El-Sayed has clearly benefited the most and is now in the lead. El-Sayed is running as a progressive, McMorrow more as a Midwest centrist, and Stevens as the Establishment candidate. It appears that many of McMorrow's scrubbed posts indicated she was more progressive in the past, so she's trying to broaden her appeal. Each candidate has some positive aspects, whether it be powerful connections (Stevens), playing off historical MI values (McMorrow), or running on the Progressive zeitgeist (El-Sayed). Since the MI primary isn't until August 4, we've got a long way to go. Yes, the race in November appears close at the moment, but I suspect it will trend Dem once the primary is over.

2) ME Senate - Yes, Platner can beat Collins in ME, and has been trending significantly lately, now that Mills has dropped out. A possibility of him losing in November is likely tied to whether there are any material revelations about his character forthcoming. Platner is endorsed by both Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, so he's gaining significant New England bonafides. The GOP will need to pour a ton of money into this race for any chance.

3) NE Senate - Osborn definitely has a shot, but the Dem candidate clearly won't. The race has been moving closer to a Toss-Up recently. There are rumors the NE Dem party is working to assist Osborn in the race, so that's interesting. I'm skeptical that Osborn will consistently vote with Dems (I hope to be pleasantly surprised), but Osborn would clearly be better than Ricketts.

Other Senate races to watch:

- TX Senate - This race is currently a Toss-Up. There will be so much money and visibility on this race between Talarico and TBD (GOP runoff is May 26 between Paxton and Cornyn), and it will be a critical get if the Dems want to take the Senate.

- IA Senate - Of far less visible prominence is the IA Senate race, between Ashley Hinson (R) and the Dem winner of the June 2 primary (Turek vs. Wahls). This race used to be a Likely R seat, but has been trending closer and closer to a Toss-Up. The key to all this will be the Governor's race, between a really strong Dem candidate in Rob Sand and likely opponent Randy Feenstra (R). Sand is a charismatic and extremely well-liked politician in IA, and strong coattails on his part may well push the Dem Senate candidate to victory. As with TX, IA is a critical get for Dems to take the Senate.