Pre-Pre-Season Musings

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 06:36 (14 days ago)

1. Our biggest weakness last year was 3rd/4th and short. We had 12 1st downs on 27 3rd and short attempts last year (44%), an awful figure. IN 2024 we were at 57%. I can't parse for 4th and short but in 2024 we were 7th in 4th down conversion percentage, and fell 50 spots last year to 57th. I don't think it's just a mobile QB question for Denbrock (in 2023 our rushing conversion percentage on 3rd and short was 60%).

Still, none of these figures represent rarefied air. Indiana last year, a good but by no means legendary rushing attack, picked up 80% of their 3rd and short rushing attempts. We were specifically in that zone when we used Riley Leonard (76% conversions on 3rd/4th and short attempts). Our best RB in such situations recently has been 2023 Gi'Bran Payne (65%), who did most of his damage from a Wildcat package. For comparison, Audric Estime was 4 for 12 on 3rd and short that year (ouch!). JD Price was 4 of 10. Even Jeremiyah Love was only 6 of 12 last year (and at least 2 or 3 or those conversions came from the Wildcat.

Long story short: Denbrock needs to figure out a +1 solution in the run game on 3rd/4th and short. I don't know if it's Hebert, or one of the RBs, or something else, but we are looking at a brightly painted Achilles Heel here and need to get ahead of it.

On the flipside: Aneyas Williams, for what it's worth, is 6 for 7 (86%) in 3rd/4th and short conversions in his career. If he can exceed Love/Price in just this one area, it can be transformative to the ceiling of the team.

2. I'm very interested to see how the passing attack shapes up. Faison sure seems to pass the eye test, but he also failed to rank among the Top 100 receivers nationally in any statistical category. Denbrock has a pretty good history of matriculating receivers upward in production, though: Nabers and Thomas doubled their production from 2021 to 2022 at LSU, and then again from 2022 to 2023. Alec Pierce and Tyler Scott quadrupled their production at Cincinnati between 2020 and 2021.

I think the best case scenario would be Faison taking a jump up toward the 1,200 yard range, and then either Greathouse or Gilbert or Graham or someone coming in with a cool 800 yards or so; seems like that would create plenty of space for a full-field attack, especially if we can stay on the field (see #1)

3. Defensively my biggest concern is probably depth at DE when it comes to defending the run/setting the edge. Traore and Young are both really good at this, but it looks like behind them will be Keeley (talented guy who has had trouble staying on the field - not a great bode) and Dunham (freshman, run defense a concern until proven otherwise). Like with short yardage on offense, this is a potentially tragic flaw in an otherwise extremely sound defense. It hurts doubly that KVA will be out to start the year, because he's our best linebacker in this regard as well. IF your edge setting is suspect it can become very hard to get off the field. I think I'd add as a concern that having a new DL coach will entail new teaching points, techniques, etc. so add transition costs onto this already discomfiting area of concern.