that Gladwell/Bissinger debate was the first
by Jay, San Diego, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 16:24 (5142 days ago)
"Intelligence Squared" program I'd seen. Since then I downloaded some of their podcasts and listened to one so far (the proposition: is the Internet making us more partisan) and it was great.
I was thinking about this in terms of ND football. This offseason I think direction of the program under Brian Kelly would provide a entertaining debate, but I need a concise "motion" to frame it. Any ideas? They are usually written in the form of an assertion, such that the teams argue for or against the motion. How would you frame a BK debate?
I think the metric for Kelly is annual improvement
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 06:26 (5141 days ago) @ Jay
And, I do believe that ND was better in 2011 than 2010. Unfortunately, 2012 might turn in a second consecutive where the team is better than its record indicates, and at some point wins matter. The other problem is that this approach requires quite a bit of patience. But, 9-4 next season followed by 10-3 in 2013 would probably quiet most of the critics and then allow us to turn the debate to Kelly's ceiling. Ar that point, the program would almost certainly be in better shape than it's been in more than a decade.
"At some point wins matter" but when is that?
by Chris (HCC)
, Paradise, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 06:42 (5141 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
I posit that wins won't matter more than "Is the team better" until at least 2013. I'm really encouraged by the progress that I've seen thus far. If the offense can make similar strides to what the defense made (with the D staying consistent), I'll take it this year.
Wins are data. Not the only data. Not always the best data.
by LaFortune Teller
, South Bend, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 19:10 (5141 days ago) @ Chris (HCC)
I agree that it is wise to consider the question "Is the team better?", but it's probably worth trying to identify metrics that can answer that question rather than just have it be a feeling. I think there are many ways in which ND was measurably better in 2011 than 2010, and there are some in which it was measurably worse.
Year-to-year, wins aren't worthless, but they are a very clunky way to measure success in small time spans. What other data points position us for wins?
"Clunky" is a great word for it
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, May 14, 2012, 08:07 (5140 days ago) @ LaFortune Teller
Certainly, a team with a lot of close losses is likely better than a team who gets blown out all the time. But, there is an "it" factor to winning. A coach that loses to the #1 team in the country by one point probably has a great team. A coach that loses to the #1 team in the country five times in a row probably is missing something, and will always be good, but never great (I propose we call this "Michigan Syndrome").
Texas A&M 2011: Discuss.
by Ken Fowler, Monday, May 14, 2012, 12:56 (5140 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
- No text -
and
by Jay, San Diego, Monday, May 14, 2012, 16:12 (5140 days ago) @ Ken Fowler
all the teams who were 8-5 in 2011
Auburn
FIU
Georgia Tech
Louisiana Tech
Missouri
North Carolina St.
Notre Dame
San Diego St.
SMU
Texas
Tulsa
Utah
Virginia
Wyoming
ranked by MOV
+121 Missouri
+111 Notre Dame
+107 Georgia Tech
+90 Louisiana Tech
+76 Texas
+75 Tulsa
+72 FIU
+62 Utah
+62 San Diego St.
+46 North Carolina St.
+36 SMU
-8 Virginia
-22 Wyoming
-42 Auburn
ranked by SOS
5 Texas
13 Missouri
14 Auburn
25 Notre Dame
45 Tulsa
49 Utah
70 SMU
71 Virginia
74 Louisiana Tech
76 Georgia Tech
83 North Carolina St.
92 Wyoming
95 San Diego St.
127 FIU
ranked by offense
21 Georgia Tech
29 Tulsa
30 Missouri
42 Louisiana Tech
46 San Diego St.
49 Notre Dame
54 North Carolina St.
55 Texas
67 Wyoming
69 SMU
70 Auburn
74 FIU
74 Utah
86 Virginia
ranked by defense
14 FIU
19 Utah
24 Notre Dame
33 Texas
40 SMU
41 Louisiana Tech
44 Missouri
46 Virginia
54 North Carolina St.
57 San Diego St.
60 Georgia Tech
64 Tulsa
67 Wyoming
79 Auburn
etc and so forth
But at some point, the pedal has to hit the metal.
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Monday, May 14, 2012, 19:26 (5140 days ago) @ Jay
Records matter. Sure, its easy to look at the record for a specific year and understand that there was 'weirdness' that might make a less than desirable record palatable. It's pretty easy to look at 2011 and come to that conclusion. But at some point in time, those types of excuses wear thin. The bottom line is that Kelly needs to do better, winning games he should be winning, not blowing late-game leads and winning games along the margin now and then.
Or the petal hit the medal
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 06:11 (5139 days ago) @ Bill
- No text -
the way I look at it
by Jay, San Diego, Monday, May 14, 2012, 19:47 (5140 days ago) @ Bill
edited by Jay, Monday, May 14, 2012, 20:02
He needs to get the team to the point where they have a shot at running the table all the way through the championship game. That involves bringing to bear a surfeit of experience and talent across all positions on the team, and then playing well (with many players having 'career' years), and then a bit of luck. The ultimate goal isn't to win "a lot" over many seasons but to get ALL the wins in a single season. Consequently in years where running the table simply isn't going to happen you need to discount losses accordingly and measure the progress in other ways. I realize this is heresy to many but it is the only way to accept Saban's loss to Louisiana-Monroe and still retain him as the leader of your program.
When will we get there? Is it realistic to think it will happen this year?
That's a valid point.
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Monday, May 14, 2012, 20:23 (5140 days ago) @ Jay
I agree that winning [and I'd add competing for] a national championship is the goal and everything else should be a prelude to winning [or competing for] one. From that perspective, a 10-3 season is not really any better than an 8-5 season as you're neither competing nor in the position to win the title. So we're in agreement there.
But I think the hole in that argument is in terms of establishing program reputation and credibility. 'Rebuilding' is perfectly acceptable on occasion, once your program has reached a peak. Therefore, it was fine for Lou to have rebuilding years post-1988 because we understood where the 'peak' was. We don't have that yet with Kelly, but once we do, I think he would/should be afforded the same rebuilding years that Lou was granted.
Losing games we should have won (USF, Michigan, Florida State) as we did last year, to me, is not 'rebuilding' and are not the type of games that a quality program should be losing. If Kelly can put an end to those types of losses, we'll be in good shape in building towards a national championship. But I don't think continuing with those types of losses can be part of a winning program.
In general, I agree. But...
by Greg, seemingly ranch, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 11:14 (5139 days ago) @ Bill
'Rebuilding' is perfectly acceptable on occasion, once your program has reached a peak. Therefore, it was fine for Lou to have rebuilding years post-1988 because we understood where the 'peak' was.
When was it "fine" for Holtz to have a rebuilding year after '88? He went 12-1, 9-3, 10-3, 10-1-1, and 11-1 in the five seasons right after '88. In '89, people were decrying his poor defense that gave up 3rd and 43. In '90, they disliked the inexplicable loss to Stanford. In '91, it was Cheerios time. In '92, he "played for the tie" against Michigan. In '93, he blew the shot at the title by "not having the team ready" for BC (and by blowing BC out in '92 instead of being more "gentlemanly").
Then came '94, the only real "rebuilding" year in his post-'88 tenure. And that year, it was all about "the game has passed him by" and the momentum that allowed the administration to ease him out was provided by this guy and his ilk:
![[image]](http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/821596/angry-old-man_medium.jpg)
I was actually talking about sane people.
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 11:26 (5139 days ago) @ Greg
There's no accounting for the other kind.
Ah. Gotcha.
by Greg, seemingly ranch, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 11:38 (5139 days ago) @ Bill
But being on campus in 1994, I'll tell you that there were a heck of a lot of alums in for games (as well as students on campus) who were doubting Lou at that point and using the "game has passed him by" line in doing so. Even if that does not represent sanity, it does represent a significant portion of our fanbase and one that way prexists Al Gore's wondrous creation.
I think credibility plays out in recruiting
by Jay, San Diego, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 10:57 (5139 days ago) @ Bill
edited by Jay, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 11:00
But I don't think you're going to get sustainable credibility (where you can weather a down year) until you rip off one of those title-contending seasons -- or at least get close enough to be considered in the handful of contenders.
Any credibility he has now is built largely on faith that we're moving towards a season like that.
Chicken and egg question
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 18:43 (5139 days ago) @ Jay
10+ win seasons are certainly more helpful in recruiting than 8 win seasons. But, better recruits aren't necessarily required to win multiple national championships, are they? They just make it more likely.
Agreed
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 11:26 (5139 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
I think there is another goal than winning the championship
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, May 14, 2012, 22:35 (5139 days ago) @ Bill
Certainly, I would trade several bad seasons for one NC, but there is something to be said for stringing together 10+ win seasons. Namely, playing in a major bowl. In the past, this meant qualifying for the BCS, but in the future, it might mean making achieving a higher threshold and making the Final Four.
That's why I included [and competing for]
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 05:55 (5139 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
- No text -
That's the $64,000 question
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 10:29 (5141 days ago) @ Chris (HCC)
I think year four is a reasonable time frame, especially with an "outlier" schedule in year three. At that point, the coach has a team consisting primarily of his own recruits. Although, I might buy an argument that says its even longer. With only 13 games per year, there really aren't that many oportunities to overcome bad luck if you get a few bad bounces early on.
Kelly was wise to address the lines in his first recruiting classes, however. They were not only positions of need for the program, but also the positions at which age and experience matter most. Without transfers, it's probably not truly a coach's line until year 5 or 6, when the offensive line could consist of 4th and 5th year top recruits schooled in the coach's technique.
Brian Kelly is making us more partisan.
by domer.mq
, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 18:21 (5142 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.
Resolved: Kelly is building the foundation for an NC at ND
by Jeff (BGS)
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 17:27 (5142 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
Not sure what 'proof' there is to claim there
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 18:27 (5142 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
Personally, I think a more interesting topic was whether Kelly inherited a 'program' or a 'piece of shit'. I'm not sure what the "resolved" statement is there, but it would seem that there are probably facts that can be brought to bear on each side of the argument that would be more interesting than conjecture.
cosign
by HumanRobot
, Cybertron, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 08:31 (5141 days ago) @ Bill
- No text -
good one
by Jay, San Diego, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 17:37 (5142 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
How about:
"Brian Kelly is the right coach to be leading Notre Dame"
"Notre Dame needs Brian Kelly right now"
by Mike (bart), Saturday, May 12, 2012, 21:17 (5141 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
That one is interesting
by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 18:13 (5142 days ago) @ Jay
I'm pretty sure I've heard/seen every argument for the "con" side. But I'm quite certain there are creative arguments out there on the "pro" side that haven't even been seriously considered/thrown around.
I thought of adding the modifier "today"
by Jay, San Diego, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 18:30 (5142 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)
Trying to get away from the more insipid arguments like "Brian Kelly is a good coach."
Intelligence Squared is very fun
by NDSF, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 17:09 (5142 days ago) @ Jay
They had a great debate a while back, the resolution being something like "Resolved, the Catholic Church is a force for good in the world" They had various clerics and professional Catholics arguing for the resolution and Christopher Hitchens and Stephen Fry arguing against. Might not be everybody's cup of tea, but they are two of my favorites and I found it incredibly entertaining, I think it is still on youtube.
I can just imagine
by bpeters07
, Sack Lake City, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 05:52 (5141 days ago) @ NDSF
At one point in the debate...
Team Hitchens: For example, consider Mother Teresa
Team Catholics: For example, consider Mother Teresa
You mean "lying, thieving Albanian dwarf"
by NDSF, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 09:06 (5141 days ago) @ bpeters07
I miss Hitchens.
It was "thieving, fanatical Albanian dwarf."
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 21:13 (5140 days ago) @ NDSF
I remember because it was in the same sentence as "simpering Bambi narcissist," his description of Princess Diana.
At any rate, Hitchens was a brutally honest but rarely unfair critic of theism in general and Catholicism in particular. The same cannot be said of Fry, whose performance in that debate calls to mind this sentence from Hitchens about a film adaptation of Brideshead Revisited: "I do not consider myself a sympathiser with Roman Catholicism, but this film seems motivated by the cheaper sort of malice against it."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/sep/27/evelynwaugh.fiction
EDIT: By the way, the bit you did with The Great Gatsby on that other site was top shelf.
Fry is no Hitchens
by NDSF, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 21:23 (5140 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
but I did not have the violent reaction to him that you did, but to each his own. By the way I assume you read Hitchens deathbed essay on Chesterton?
I did.
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 21:30 (5140 days ago) @ NDSF
edited by Slainte Joe, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 21:37
And it was customary Hitchens on Catholics he respected. Just treatment, but ultimately the dagger.
His death is a great loss.
On Fry, we are likely just coming to the topic from different perspectives. The Catholic Church has certainly opened itself to innumerable just attacks, but I cannot take seriously a polemic based largely on the assertion that the Church has no use for the poor. That's just not a remotely serious idea. At any rate, I don't mean to overstate the point or to sound angry toward Fry. He's a talent, and I've enjoyed a good bit of his work.
I put that one on the queue
by Jay, San Diego, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 17:36 (5142 days ago) @ NDSF
I think Emily and I are going to watch it later tonight. Thanks for the rec!
(I recognize Hitchens and Fry of course, but I have no idea who Ann Widdecombe or Archbishop Okayenien are. That probably bodes ill for the Church in this debate).
The Church gets precisely what it deserves
by NDSF, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 17:38 (5142 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
Fry is certainly charming ...
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 18:35 (5142 days ago) @ NDSF
and I both respect and enjoy his work as an actor.
But I was dismayed by his speech in that debate. Straw men. Untruth. Anachronisms. It was performance art. Not argument.
watched it last night
by Jay, San Diego, Monday, May 14, 2012, 11:34 (5140 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
I thought Fry was on point with his AIDS in Africa commentary, especially with his firsthand observations in Uganda. He also, unlike Hitchens, was charitable towards the "rank and file" Catholics and was respectful of individual spirituality.
Overall I thought the Q&A took the debate way off track, with the participants getting into theological arcana instead of sticking with the question at hand. But the questioners led them there.
Hitchens is fun to listen to.
Even there, I prefer Hitchens's full frontal ...
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Monday, May 14, 2012, 18:52 (5140 days ago) @ Jay
... er ... assault.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/06/08/christopher-hitchens-how-weiner-and-edwa...
When you consider Christianity a load of rubbish that effects more evil than good, it's cloying if not disingenuous then to mutter about respecting the private piety of its adherents.
Hitch
by NDSF, Monday, May 14, 2012, 19:34 (5140 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
was often very solicitous of people of faith and was close friends with many including Andrew Sullivan. Hitchens also has been pretty clear about JPII's virtues along with his vices. Hitchens attacked the Catholic Church with such persistence and focus out of a sort of paradoxical respect. He realized that from an intellectual viewpoint, the Catholic Church is the most developed, serious and internally consistent of the major faith traditions. He admitted as much. As someone with long Trotskyist training, he knew that you needed to attack the strongest citadel to disprove the whole construct and he did so with zeal.
Since we keep circling to Fry, I think the money thing is a weaker but still colorable point. His point re More is unpleasant but true and I say this as a fan of More, who is a more complex and difficult case (and therefore far more interesting) than the plaster saint version. I recommend the novel Wolf Hall to which Fry refers. It is a fun take on the English Reformation from the Protestant side. As far as the Church's situation with regard to the abuse scandals and its deflecting, hypocritical treatment of gay people, I think he and Hitchens simply scorched the other side. I also note his reference to Ratzinger's conduct re Maciel, which was criminal. Finally, I think he is dead-on re the Church's politics on contraception in Africa.
On Maciel ...
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Monday, May 14, 2012, 19:56 (5140 days ago) @ NDSF
JPII is much, much more culpable than Ratzinger for keeping Maciel in the Vatican's graces. In fact, Ratzinger was never at ease with the Legionaries, and Benedict is the one who pulled Maciel from active ministry.
Same with the abuse scandal. To the extent that the Church can claim reforms on sexual abuse of children, and I think that it can, Ratzinger/Benedict deserves a good bit of credit. Frankly, JPII deserves much more of the blame.
Hitchens was simply unhinged on the subject of Ratzinger. In a rare departure from his usual grace, he made absolutely no attempt to understand the man.
At any rate, most of these topics would be good for a long dinner and a few bottles of wine.
I would enjoy that
by NDSF, Monday, May 14, 2012, 20:25 (5140 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
Let me know what games you will be at.
Sounds good.
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Monday, May 14, 2012, 20:59 (5139 days ago) @ NDSF
That's still up in the air right now, but I'll let you know.
He was horrid.
by Buck Mulligan, Martello Tower, Saturday, May 12, 2012, 19:49 (5142 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
I lost all respect for him.
He can't carry Hitchens' AEnglish jockstrap, or whatever it is they use.
Cheesecloth of some sort, I imagine.
The experience of debating Hitchens ...
by Slainte Joe
, Raleigh, Sunday, May 13, 2012, 05:06 (5141 days ago) @ Buck Mulligan
must be the intellectual equivalent of being bludgeoned.
I miss that man.