Interestingly enough, I think "the book"

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 06:43 (5965 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
edited by JRT, Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 06:51

the conventional wisdom regarding decisions in both football and baseball-was essentially correct when "written" despite the lack of sabermetrics, computers, etc.

When George Wright and Wilbert Robinson and John McGraw and all those early managers figured out basic strategies (corner infielders guard the line in late innings with a lead to prevent a double, bunting a runner over to second, etc.) I think they were all just about right.

The same with the "book" that Knute Rockne and Pop Warner and others developed about when to punt, when to take a field goal, etc.

Really, I think what's going on now is just updating those "books" to the changing game. In a game where top hitters hit home runs every 20 or so at bats (and all the other changes in the game, like error rates, etc.), that changes the relative value of an out and advancing a base.

In football, if you have a passing offense that can complete two-thirds of its passes with almost no interceptions, you have to re-evaluate your success rate on fourth down and whether to go for it.

I think a lot of the benefit of sabermetrics has been updating strategy to changed circumstances that the games have been slow to recognize, as opposed to proving those original decisions, when made, were wrong.

[For whatever reason, I don't think basketball has ever quite gotten "the book" down. Like fouling when up by three points at the end of a game.]