I know it's ridiculously early but...

right now the two favorites to play for it all next year should be Florida and Texas. And, in my opinion, it's not even close.

Including kickers, Florida has 19 of 24 starters coming back and Texas has 17. That's the highest two totals among teams that finished in the Top Ten last year. And both teams return their QB.

I guess an argument can be made for Oklahoma but they lost four starting OL and their top three WRs. And their defense doesn't seem good enough to carry the load.

Alabama's defense might be good enough - they only lost 2 starters. But they lost their QB and an additional 6 starters on offense, including 3 OL. Their offense was pedestrian last season and one need look no further than last years LSU team to see what instability at QB can do to a team that is otherwise loaded.

SC will always be in the discussion but that defense for the ages that they had lost 8 starters. And while they have their entire OL back the question mark at QB makes me think they will continue the pattern or dropping at least one game that they shouldn't.

Virginia Tech could be a darkhorse.

I think Penn State as a top ten team next season is a suckers bet. They lost 14 starters including 3 OL, their 3 starting WR, both DEs and their entire secondary.

Ohio State? I don't see it.

Oregon? Maybe I'm just stupid but they lost 13 starters including 4 starting OL. The idea that they will be challenging SC seems like quite a stretch to me. The Trojans beat them down almost as bad as they worked us.

LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia won't be good enough to make it through the SEC without 2 losses.

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We really should be a contender this year. I think you're right in your prediction, but there is no reason we can't make a run at the title.

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is we have a year like the one that Alabama just had.

On paper there are a lot of similarities between ND in 2009 and Alabama in 2008.

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Both teams finished 7-6 the prior season.

Both teams struggled mightily over the course of the second half of the prior season. Alabama lost it's last four regular season games. ND lost four of their last 5. Both teams suffered a rather humiliating defeat at home during that stretch. Alabama to ULM and ND to Syracuse.

Both teams rebounded with a win in their bowl game. Alabama beat Colorado in the Independance Bowl and a lot of the players credited the win, and the bowl prep, as a springboard into 2008. Alabama had finished +20 against D1 teams. ND was +33.

Both teams returned a QB with two years of starting experience as well a veteran, highly experienced offensive line.

Both teams had more to replace on the defensive side of the ball. Alabama actually started a true freshmen at 1 LB spot, Donta Hightower. Many ND fans expect that we will start a true freshmen at one of the spots.

There are also a bunch of statistical similarties that I jotted down but don't have in front of me. The teams are very close in terms of where they finished statistically the year before.

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Pretty uncanny.

  Irish 2008  Alabama 2007 
Category  Rank Actual Rank Actual
Rushing Offense  100 109.69 60 149.23
Passing Offense  34 245.38 59 224.54
Total Offense  65 355.08 75 373.77
Scoring Offense  67 24.69 64 27.08
Rushing Defense  45 134.15 28 124.15
Pass Efficiency D 22 109.73 38 117.21
Total Defense  39 329.85 31 345.46
Scoring Defense  42 22.15 27 22
Net Punting  59 35.05 85 33.49
Punt Returns  60 8.92 11 13.7
Kickoff Returns  53 21.56 62 21.13
Turnover Margin  73 -0.23 T-34 0.31
Pass Defense  43 195.69 48 221.31
Passing Efficiency  42 131.4 86 115.85
Sacks   50 2.08 T-73 1.85
Tackles For Loss  106 4.62 T-34 6.92
Sacks Allowed  45 1.69 T-51 1.92

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Come on, Frank, work your magic!

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We were -.23 per game, they were +.31. That's significant I think.

Other than that, it's amazing how these teams line up:

* Both Total O and Total D within 20 yards of each other.

* Offensive Scoring within 3 points.

* Defensive scoring only .15 points apart.

I'm predicting 12-2 record with a loss to Florida in the SEC championship followed by a de-pantsing by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

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We all rightfully discuss the lack of running attack but in terms of yardage we were a better team than UNC, MSU, and Pitt. Those teams just managed to not play hot potato with the ball, especially in the red zone. EDIT - Pitt did too but they had a better defense than we did.

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Sagarin SOS.

Bama 2007: 74.37 (30th)

ND 2008: 71.61 (50th)

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said about last season that the biggest difference-maker for them was the very senior OL. Said that even they were surprised at the changes both physically and mentally from just the previous year, even though the previous OL was relatively senior. Lots of talk of "light switches" in the offseason.

--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

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Shipley, Ohrenberger, and Cadogan were all returning starters. Landolt had played a bunch, too. The only relative newcomer was Wiesniewski.

But a common characteristic of successful teams, even ones that don't necessarily have a dynamic offense, is a very experienced and senior OL. I think Ivan Maisel had an article last year about how 75 career starts is something of a magic number in terms of OL experience:

Oklahoma was at the top with 130 career starts.

33 of the 41 teams that started the year with 75 starts of OL experience played in bowl games.

9 of the top 15 teams had that much experience. Most of the ones that didnt (USC, Texas, Georgia) are recruiting superpowers that either had a very experienced upper class QB and/or a top defense. The other two (TCU and Boise St) are non-BCS conference teams and TCU had the #1 defense in the country.

Also notable:

Ball State had 129. They went from 7-6 to 12-2.
Ole Miss had 99. They went from 3-9 to 9-4.
Alabama had 94. They went from 7-6 to 12-2.
Penn State had 88. They went from 9-4 to 11-2.
Utah had 83. They went from 9-4 to 13-0.
Florida had 76. They went from 9-4 to 13-1.

Notre Dame had 60 starts.
We're projected to have 100 in 2009.

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the Polo Grounds

I know it's ridiculously early but...

Looking at that.

Best Case Scenario..

Now I'm curious to know what they are

Well....

stats comparison

Rushing O is the biggest difference I see

turnovers too

Turnovers...

SOS

Thanks, very interesting

The PSU coaching staff...

It was basically a lot the same guys.