To sort of meld with Jeff's Sagarin/Rivals post...
by domer.mq 
, Tuesday, March 03, 2009, 18:26 (6238 days ago)
I took a look before 2008 at correlation at ND over the last 30 years between success on the field in a given season for a given squad and the number of draftees that squad ended up yielding the following year.
http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2008/07/10/success-on-the-field-and-in-the-draft-which...
This past week, I took another look at those stats along with 2008 season results + expected performance of that squad in the 2009 NFL draft (I don't expect anyone other than Bruton to get drafted).
http://www.herloyalsons.com/blog/2009/02/28/nd-needs-to-get-a-bit-more-draftee/
I try not to fall into looking for causation here, but there is a correlation (I know, "duh"). And given that, it all leads me to wonder how many 2009 Irish will be picked up in the 2010 NFL draft. The average ratio of season wins to draftees in the next draft is 1.75. If Weis gets 10 wins in 2009 (as most "expect/demand"), then what will that ratio look like? I suspect at best, even with a "big" season of 10+ wins, the number of 2010 draftees would be 2 or 3, leaving a ratio of 5-3.33 (supposing just 10 wins). 5 would be the 2nd highest ratio in the 31 years we looked at (7 is the highest, held by Davie in 1997 with 7 wins, one draftee (I expect Weis to match it in April)). 3.33 is still well above the average. If we suppose there is a real correlation, then what will cause the split between the 2 numbers in 2009? Or am I under appreciating the likely 2010 ND NFL Draft class?
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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.
good work - is there a way...
by Spesh , Los Angeles, Wednesday, March 04, 2009, 06:01 (6238 days ago) @ domer.mq
to calculate the % of underclassmen starters? Or some other relative statistic that would give you a sense of how many available starters were drafted/not drafted?
When I think of the 1993 team, so many starters seemed to be seniors or juniors who could jump to the NFL. Obviously last year's team was quite young. When I think of next year's team, there aren't a lot of senior starters to begin with, and the number of juniors who could jump to the NFL seems limited (Tate, ?).
Along those lines
by Jeff (BGS) , A starter home in suburban Tempe, Wednesday, March 04, 2009, 12:53 (6237 days ago) @ Spesh
I'd love to be able to compare performance to the average star rating of the team's starters, regardless of experience.
That's a good idea. I'll explore that.
by domer.mq , Wednesday, March 04, 2009, 08:03 (6237 days ago) @ Spesh
I've been swamped with real work lately, but once I free up a little, I'll dig into it. I think I've seen some material from FunkDoc on just that sort of thing that I could mash with this.
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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.