Unfortunately for me, I wasn't a math/econ major.

by ReginaldVelJohnson , Thursday, February 12, 2009, 19:07 (6088 days ago) @ Spesh

A lot of the concepts he uses go over my head, despite having read the paper a number of times. It's my basic understanding though that his model assumes coaches should call plays that maximize their net yardage and minimize their risk. He doesn't take into account the situations, but rather assumes that the coach has a fairly good idea what his net pass/run yardage vs. risk is, and calls an appropriate play. Obviously, this is a certain point of weakness in his theory. There are times where maximum yardage isn't really your concern--for instance when you are up at the end of the game and you are just trying to grind the clock.

I should also note that one of his conclusions is that teams don't run enough. That falls in line what we often say about rushing being so important. The interesting twist, I think, is that these kinds of analysis try to pinpoit exactly what that percentage is. You can't just say "we should rush 60% of the time", as it likely varies with many factors that are unique to the specific team.