sorry, that's 2 bad ones in a single thread

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Just look at their bios. Flanagan started two games as a freshman in 2023 and five as a sophomore in 2024. Washington's numbers, of course, include his time at Arkansas.

All of those guys were unproven until they weren't. So, it's a matter of trusting the scouting. And with more highly rated guys, the hit rate of replacement level production goes up.

Rather, I think Fields is a great case study for why we can expect others to pick up production.

It's kind of crazy to me that Fields was so productive previously and still got outproduced by a guy who was a part-time LAX player. I think part of this is because of our offense, but a good chunk is because (I think) CJ was good enough to spread the ball around.

Is Fitzgerald, Greathouse, Porter, Bettis, Buress, Graham, Williams, or Gilbert the equivalent of Fields? Likely not. But I do think the combination of them can fill the void of one guy especially realizing he was a 600-yard guy.

And on Raridon. Totally agree. But similarly, we are throwing Flanagan, Flanigan, Washington, and Premer out there to replace one guy.

So, the bottom line is that I think the depth of the numbers, even if not as good singularly as the original, can piece together some of that production if not more. Because we don't need one guy to fill the void. We have multiple, qualified, if unproven, guys to carry the load. Adding to that, I think the QB is better than last year.

His reception percentage was basically identical to his two seasons at UVA (58.0 to 58.5 to 58.1) but he only saw 62 targets instead of 100 and 94, and even with those, Carr was nearly a Marcel Reed-level of inaccurate on deep throws to him. I would love if we have a boundary receiver on the roster who will have one drop all season and go in the Top 75 of the draft in April, but we'll have to see. And I love the options at tight end, but Raridon was a Day Two guy who might have gone first round with a clean bill of health, plus Will Pauling was a steady slot option (two drops all season). Plus having the safety valve of maybe the best tailback in school history (27 catches) and also another first round back.

"Get your skill position players sorted out by Oct. 17" isn't an overly difficult task, but it's still a task Denbrock and Carr need to complete.

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I probably have a higher level of skepticism than most about the WR group. I just think we haven’t been very good there and need to see it before I believe. Every year for example we hear that Gilbert looks great and then, he doesn’t. For the past few years, we keep hearing oh, this WR group is so improved and then they are meh.

But I think your take is totally reasonable. And I hope we do see a couple of breakout players in the WR group! We are due. I think Carr will elevate their play and I think Denbrock will do a great job with scheme and I suspect they will improve as the year goes on.

Every year in college football, unproven players emerge and have success. CJ Carr was unproven, so was Tae Johnson, Gurbey Lambert. All unproven players that did well for us last year. So I totally agree, someone could emerge at the WR position and do really well. Definitely opportunity there. But there would be more confidence if we had a few more guys that have some production at the position

By contrast, one of the reasons I am so excited about the defense is the number of players that have had proven success. Moore, Shuler, Johnson, Gray, Bowen, Ausberry, KVA, Traore, Brewu just to name a few have all played at a high level. And we’ve even seen young players like Golden, Farrimo (so?) show real flashes in limited time.

I think Faison at 640 yards last year is “close” to the level of production of a Fields. And Greathouse has proven he can show up big. So, of course, there is reason to say “wait and see,” I am reminded of players like EQ who went from one catch to almost 60 in one year. I am sure there are other examples.

I agree you can have a good QB and a not so good WR corps. But I think most of us believe that this may be the last season we get to enjoy CJ. For that to happen the group has to have some production. The NFL isn't going to draft CJ with worse numbers, or at least in the 1st round.

My point is that I think the experience and previous production is overblown. Fields was a proven commodity but he had his lowest production in 3 years last season.

I think CJ improves upon last year, where he was unproven and inexperienced. I just think we have too many numbers (with complimentary credentials) to get at least 2 others besides Faison to hit. And that includes the unaccomplished riches of talent at TE. Is it unproven and worthy of question? Sure. Is it a concern? That's where I disagree because history has shown us that guys step up in a program that develops kids.

There are many examples of a QB bring very good and the receivers not being very good. It is certainly possible that CJ is a really good player but the cast around him isn’t as good and lets him down. That’s exactly the concern.

If you are right, and he throws for over 3000 yards and 30 TD’s of course the WR group will have done well! However, I think it’s reasonable to be concerned going into the 2026 season that the WR group isn’t at the same level as the QB. While a QB can certainly elevate the play of the WR (and vice versa), there’s only so much a QB can do alone.

As for Fields, he was a third round pick and had two 800 plus receiving yard years before coming to ND we certainly don’t have any WR on the team with that sort of proven production coming into the season.

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Re the TE’s, I think it is highly likely the blocking will be better from that group. Just not sure they will be able to produce much catching the ball. As you know a TEwho can block and catch is pretty nice to have.

I actually think the 2 best receivers on the team currently might be Faison and A Williams (the RB) hopefully some unproven WR step up

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I don’t think the TE’s have as many starts as you have in your post. For context, Cooper Flanagan has 5 career receptions, James has zero receptions. Ty Washington had 5 receptions last year.

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I get it. It's not the most proven group in CFB but 2 things can't be true.

We can't have a sure fire (or damn near) Heisman trophy candidate and 1st round pick and a corps that ends up questionable.

Inexperienced and unproven CJ Carr threw for over 2,700 yards last year, completing 67% of his passes, for 24 TDs.

He gets his leading receiver back but he loses Fields and Raridon.

I understand the concerns about Gilbert, Graham, Fitzgerald, Premer, Williams, Greathouse. But do we really think there isn't replacement level production on the roster (even considering the inexperience)? Were Fields' stats so compelling that we feel constricted about having someone match production?!?!? Really?

I think CJ is a 3,000 yard passer this year, with 30 TDs or more. He can't do that if we think we have a substandard WR group. Having questions about inexperience can't equate to concerns...if we think CJ is the real deal. Now if we have to rely on a back up then all bets are off.

with this group of receivers -- unproven as some of them may be -- and all of the presnap motion he runs to create advantages. Particularly with a prodigy-level QB who has learned and now starting to master the concepts and can leverage such things in real time. It should be a lot of fun to watch.

it's worth pointing out that Nabers and Brian Thomas went from 700 combined yards the year before Denbrock got there, to 1,400 combined yards in Denbrock's first year, to 2,800 yards in his second year with them (and Daniels). There is definitely something to be said for a unit growing into itself, especially when there is good and consistent culture-setting leadership

especially when compared to last season, when the schedule was the absolute killer.

All three tough opponents in '26 are in the back half of the season. @BYU is game seven, then a bye before Navy, followed by Miami, BC, and SMU at home. There should be plenty of time to figure out the offense as well as build up experience for some of the inexperienced guys.

I want to punch myself in the face for being overly optimistic, but I really think the biggest risk to this team is overconfidence. The game at BYU could be a "first time ND is punched in the mouth" type of game, but the team should be ready for it from an experience and scheme perspective.

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At night, the ice weasels come.

sorry Larz - good post

Especially against elite opponents.

History says the offense has to be able to get 30+ on the board against an elite D.

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with visible light at the end of the tunnel!

We've often been in a position at this time of year where we have said "Well, if X can step up or Y develops, we will be good."

In most of those years, the only options to step up were X or Y.

Now, we need a boundary receiver. OK. Gilbert might have first crack at it. But if he doesn't work out, Greathouse might get a look. Or Porter. Or Devin Fitzgerald. Or Cam Williams. In prior years, we needed to bat 1.000. This year, we need to bat like .300 (we need one lead guy and a good backup).

I have zero doubt that Cooper Flanigan will be an improvement as a blocker. But I don't know that "starting fights" translates into "chain-moving weapon." Well, he will have James Flanagan and probably Premer pushing him hard in his receiving skills and taking some of those opportunities.

Obviously, having a QB like Carr is a giant help on this front. He's a guy who can make his receivers better.

And then throw in Denbrock, a proven top five (at least) OC. And moreover, one who isn't a one-trick pony schematically. He has succeeded with multiple styles, and been able to adjust to match the strengths of his personnel.

Finally, there hasn't been as much discussion about leadership on offense. That's been in short supply the last few years, at least outside of the OL. I mean, Pauling walked in the door and became a captain. Obviously, Carr as a returning starting QB, sets the tone -- and it sounds like he has strong leadership qualities. There's Knapp and Craig on the OL. But now, there's a guy like Flanigan at TE, who is going to be a tone-setter, if not a vocal leader. By all accounts, Faison has emerged as a very strong leader. And it sure seems like Ayneas has a lot of leadership qualities, too. Ultimately, the offense will need to be greater than the sum of its parts. And that's more likely to happen with strong leadership.

in his second year at LSU with Daniels. I'm not saying we have Nabers and Brian Thomas at receiver, but there's a bunch of raw material for the OC and QB to wreak major havoc.

is that this will be the first time in six (6!) years that ND's offense will have the benefit of a returning starter at quarterback. That is not normal! Particularly for a successful, high-level program, even in this portal-crazy era. We have been living year-to-year so long with breaking in the next guy, often combined with a new OC, that I think we've lost lock on just how much value there is in having OC/QB alignment from one season to the next.

IMO that is the biggest reason to be excited about the offense in 2026.

2020 - Ian Book
2021 - Jack Coan
2022 - Tyler Buchner/Drew Pyne
2023 - Sam Hartman
2024 - Riley Leonard
2025 - CJ Carr
2026 - CJ Carr (!)

is significant and sufficient to dampen the enthusiasm. I also agree that several of the O-line players/pieces will be at new positions. Another significant question is if perhaps the most talented OL (Jagusah) will even play this season.

All the above being stated, there are 6 players on the O-line (including Jagusah) with starting experience. The total # of previous starts is 64. Perhaps more importantly, there are approximately, 4,000 career snaps returning on the o-line. That's significant. Similarly, there are 3 TEs returning with previous playing experience. FlanAgan has played in 26 games, has 6 career starts and over 400 career snaps; Wash has played in 33 games, 14 previous starts and approx. 250 career snaps; FlanIgan played in 4 games last year and has over 50 career snaps. The total returning snaps at TE is > 700. Again, that's significant.

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Because they came in the red zone and against top competition. I think he's up to the task, will be fun to see.

I agree we are losing some superior players from last year's squad: Love, Price, Fields, Pauling, and Raridon were all really great players.

My feeling on 2025 was that we had a big play offense that played off the strengths of those big time players. However, it bogged down because Denbrock and company struggled to assemble schemes and concepts with natural constraints. My hope is that in 2026 we'll have a lot more confidence in the QB to execute those types of things and despite perhaps reduced overall talent, we'll have a more productive offense particularly in "gotta have it" type situations.

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

CHOO CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

I am really looking forward to watching the OL. I think we could see that group really grow over the course of the season. As for Black, I think he is Canadian, so we have that going for us :) certainly hoping he continues the tradition of great LT play we’ve enjoyed for many years.

In terms of Greathouse, I hope you are right, nothing against him, I hope he’s healthy this year and has an excellent season. I’m just not sure he has the physical gifts to be an elite receiver. But, no doubt the coaching staff thinks highly of him and they know a lot more than I do!

Adon Shuler and Cooper Flanagan. That suggests Flanagan’s competitive fire is high..

I expect a much more authoritative OL and TE this year. Fewer explosives, but a lot more consistent running game.

Pair that with multiple receivers who are solid and a Carr with a year of running the offense under his belt and I have high expectations.

Point taken about the defensive setups Carr will face. I have faith in his ability to dissect whatever is thrown at him. For all some of the talking heads bemoan Carr’s occasional risky play, his TD/INT was 24/6.

I agree with all the concerns posted and you guys know more football than me. I just look at the breadth of options available to Carr in 2026 and they are almost assuredly broader than 2025. That bodes well for our QB known for his playbook depth.

Just a super fun read first thing in the morning.

(2) I agree on the defense. Ive moved my chips all in for this year’s defense. They will be either great or legendary. And with the chips on their shoulders they should be playing with … (after how the Big Ten and the SEC F’d ND) … they should bring the lumber straight out of the gate. Im still pissed and Im not even on the team. If I were on the team … my rage would be maniacally focused on getting better.

(3) Right now the prediction markets have ND winning vs Wisconsin 34-14 with an 87% chance of a win. I agree w KGB. ND has time to gel before the BYU game. Before that, I only worry about stumbling in their opening game vs Wisconsin, but when I see those numbers … I dont think a veteran QB like CJ Carr will let ND stumble. And w ND’s defense, I think Wisconsin may struggle to get to 14.

(4) Who’s got it better than ND? Every team has questions, ND has far less than their opponents.

Anyways, great post Larz. Lots of fun to read and very level headed/ non-hype infused perspective. I also think there’s some well thought out counter arguments here. Fall practices cant start soon enough.

offensive success. Tommy Tremble, for instance, was one of the top 3 most valuable guys on that 2020 offense, even if he only caught 19 passes

If you listen to Freeman and Denbock, they gush over Cooper Flanagan’s blocking and competitive fire. I think he was badly missed last year in short yardage. Could have been the difference in one of the first two games, even. He will move the chains as a receiver.

I’m repeating myself but A. Williams is as good or better than Price and a better receiver out of the backfield.
The WR needs to produce a consistent player outside of Faison but, like Coop, there have been raves about Graham. The boundary guy remains in doubt.

but the shape of the schedule works in that unit's favor this season, and Denbrock has a long history of figuring things out in situations where he was almost never working with the same set of chess pieces.

The OL in particular is an interesting case, bc as you noted, "returning starts" is somewhat deceiving when two of your most experienced players are shifting to new roles. Feels like a "one step back to take three forward" situation. A lot hinges on just how much of a prodigy Will Black actually proves to be at LT. The speed & decisiveness with which Rudolph moved a multi-year starter off that spot in the spring suggests Alt-level potential. And based on how his first season played out (true frosh vs. redshirt for Black, it should be noted), I don't anticipate immediate dominance. But I do think we'll be locked in and really moving people by the time the team travels to Provo in October.

At receiver, I have to push back on Greathouse bc a lot of his inconsistency in '24 boiled down to QB play and how slowly Denbrock brought Leonard along as the season unfolded. If you look back at Greathouse's numbers, a strong case could be made that he was woefully underutilized within the offense. His contested catch rate was stellar -- over 80%, one of the highest of any receiver nationally -- and he dropped only one pass all season. He was limited by lack of need due to the dominance of the defense, but when ND fell behind multiple times in the playoffs against better competition and the offense suddenly had to get more aggressive, Greathouse stepped up in a major way. If healthy (significant qualifier, I know), he's looking at a bounceback very similar to the one enjoyed by Faison in 2025, who also was slept on coming off a season largely lost to injury.

At TE, Cooper Flanagan is in the Greathouse boat of being somewhat overlooked now, but he got a lot of high-value snaps during the long championship run of 2024. He won't make anyone forget Mike Mayer in the receiving game, but I think that his absence last season as a stallworth (h/t Diaco) on the blocking front was underrated even among those who follow the team closely.

There are two other points I want to make in support of the offense, which interlock to a certain extent. On the recruiting front, ND has clearly leveled up in a way that makes comparing the current situation to recent history dubious, IMO. We can say that there's not a TE on the roster who has yet proven the ability to get open, but we can also say that ND has not had unproven players at the position quite like Ian Premer. Even James Flanigan is of a higher caliber than basically anyone we've landed over the last decade outside of Mayer. The potential for one of them to carve out a significant role as a first-year player with a QB as gifted as Carr is favorable. At that position and the rest, the talent that Freeman has accumulated across the roster since his arrival implicitly demands a higher level of play from everyone who takes the field, one snap at a time.

The other point is the old saw about iron sharpening iron. If everyone agrees that our defense will land somewhere between great and flat-out dominant, then the unit which has already battled them in the spring and will continue going H2H throughout the fall will ultimately benefit from facing that caliber of play at all three levels every week. It is highly doubtful that anyone in the offensive group will match off against better players outside their own roster until the CFP, with the possible exception of Miami (and only then at certain spots). This sort of stress testing will serve both to expose any weaknesses and force the players and sub-units on offense to raise their level of play to meet that standard of competition.

First off, generally agree that the picture on offense actually feels quite murky.

The bulk of that feeling is driven by the unknowns at WR along with what you point out as a new paradigm for Carr. The rightful terror defenses had of the RBs along with athletic excellence of Fields (and to a lesser extent Rairdon) helped create some very straightforward reads for Carr. He would be choosing between either single coverage on quite athletic receivers (or a really fair technical guy like Pauling) or, reading a three-deep scheme (which, to be fair, he did a great job of with regularity), or being able to hand the ball off to a 1st Round RB against a two high shell

USC had a terrible game plan against us, but they did stymie Carr by constantly making him navigate 6 and 7 man coverages (in fairness it was raining). Those 6/7 man back ends are going to be the norm, now, and certainly with a less reliable/predictable defense against Faison in particular -- way fewer of those 10-12 yard free access pitches and catches to be had when the defense can actually put a safety on each hash. It's going to be a lot tougher on CJ this year

Further, given the backup QB situation, Carr is going to have to be very judicious about when he runs the ball. There just aren't going to be very many layups.

One area where I'd say I'm way more optimistic than you are, though, would be TE. I felt like Cooper Flanagan showed out really well as a blocker in 2024, especially against some good teams like Texas A&M, UGA, Louisville, etc. I'd have to go back but I think he may have been our best blocking TE in 2023 as well. Much, much better and more versatile blocker than Rairdon. To me, he's maybe the X factor of the entire offense aside from "#2 Receiver X." If you can't regularly even up numbers on the ground by running your QB (especially in critical situations), you need to be have a TE who really wins as a blocker, otherwise defenses can live in 2-high on every down and your life offensively is going to be very frustrating. Price and Love negated a lot of this problem via their explosiveness (and the threats thereof) but the irrational pit I would get in my stomach when we got to 2nd and 2? That was driven in no small part by the mismatch between Rairdon's skill set and our ability to run Carr.

Additionally, for as explosive as we were, there was a lot of less than ideal stuff going on last year when it came to our run blocking options. I remember us running counter or split zone with, like, Will Pauling coming across the formation. Flanagan's ability to both target as well as move people will create a lot of options for better play setups. Additionally, I think with Knapp moving inside you get opportunities for stuff like Power or Down G concepts that can create easier blocks for everyone else while taking advantage of Knapp's athleticism and power in the run game. We didn't really have a go to guy in the run game like that last year, and I think it showed at times

We just desperately need WR to not be a mess for the 6th year out of the last 7 or whatever. If we can find a really good #2 and #3, we have the pieces to be a complete offense by the time the playoffs roll around. In some ways an even more complete (if not as explosive) as what we had last year

Yes, I know we've had early season disasters, though they came after huge games.

We don't have to open with a rookie QB, on the road, against what turned out to be the national runner-up. So we'll presumably have more of a chance to assess personnel.

Carr was the right choice at QB, but I honestly think we might have beaten Miami with Minchey. They had the training wheels on Carr and Minchey could've made more off-schedule plays. So it goes.

QB: Yes, we need a true back-up and a true third-string guy. Somebody has to take reps with the 2nd team and somebody has to run the scout team. Fair enough.

OL: It's not like we have five returning starters, but in the portal era nobody of significance has 5 returning starters. I think we're deep enough and have enough position flexibility that the line will probably be a bit better than last year. Maybe a lot better. Get a rash of injuries, then maybe not as good.

RB: It's a fair point when you lose two first round picks. But I'm a big fan of Williams and watching that PSU game again I get to be a bigger fan. At least one of those guys behind him might be the next Love. But that's a legitimate concern.

TE: We haven't really had a TE who was a huge weapon since Mayer. Raridon was a good player. If we get major production out of that position it will be an upgrade.

WR: This is widely considered the weakest group on the offense but it was last year too. Fields and Pauling were nice players and Fields gave us a big bodied guy of the kind I like who can keep the chains moving. I think we'll get an upgrade here mostly because we're starting from a relatively low level and Carr can throw guys open like nobody probably since Clausen (and Carr has a much stronger arm).

I suspect we'll probably score at least as much as last year, in part due to the schedule. I think we'll see what we've really got when we play BYU and Miami.

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"Somewhere in Middle America"

The defense should be so good that it just needs the offense not to mess up. Despite how good we think CJ Carr will be.

Like all of you, I'm excited about the upcoming ND football season! ND has been generating a lot of positive buzz this offseason and there are good reasons for that. We have a potentially elite defense, a returning starter at QB, a talented roster, a reasonable schedule and a coaching staff that seems to be humming on many, if not all cylinders.

Although there are plenty of reasons to be excited, I do think the conversation (on social media, the traditional media and the ND beats) around the offense has been a little too optimistic. While it is exciting to have a very talented starting QB coming back and many key members of the coaching staff returning, there are significant questions to be answered at each of level of the offense. In my experience the more questions you have going into the season, the more difficult it is to have sustained success during the season. In my view, here are a few of the key questions:

QB - The obvious one, who is going to be the backup? Hopefully this never actually becomes an important question. I think the under the radar question is: how long will it take for CJ Carr to adjust to having to do more to move the offense?

OL - There is a tendency to assume the ND OL will be good coming into every season because we've had a lot of success at the position and typically recruit well. This year is no exception to that. I think there is reason to be optimistic, but I think we need to wait and see. When you step back and look at it, there is actually very little experience on this Oline. While Knapp has a lot of starts, none of them are at guard, I believe Lambert has the second most starts but none of them at tackle. All the other projected starters have limited starts and experience (A. Craig's return could change this). I think it is really good that coming out of spring, most of the OL is in place for the upcoming year as they need as many reps as possible to come together as a unit. Given the lack of experience and position changes on the line, I think the key question for this group is: how long will it take them to gel as a unit?

TE - Outside of Washington, there is very limited playing experience in this group and thus far Washington has struggled as both a blocker and a receiver, which is less than ideal for a TE. The biggest question is who is going to catch the ball from his group? To date, no one on the roster has shown the ability to consistently get open and catch the ball at the P4 level.

RB - Pretty obvious here, we lost two first round RB's. While Williams has shown promise, there are a lot of unproven players here and they have done little to nothing as college football RB's.

WR - I think the biggest questions on offense and the entire team reside with the WR group. For the record, I hope they do well, but I am skeptical. I hope they can turn into a productive group, I'm just not convinced at this time and need to see it before I believe it. We can reasonably expect Jordan Faison will have good year (and maybe even a very good year), he's been a productive player consistently at this level for the past few years. After that, there is no one even close. I know people will say Greathouse, but in my view he hasn't produced consistently, even when healthy. From there, no one has produced at this level of football. In 2025 we had at least three players who had already been productive college WRs (Faison, Fields, Pauling - you could include Greathouse, but I wouldn't). This year we have 1.Unless he turns into Curt Henning overnight (obscure reference alert), CJ Carr is going to need someone to throw the ball to as he can't throw it to himself. I think there should be far more concern about this group. I hope they end up doing well and if they do you can post this later and say, see Larz you didn't have a clue! I think there is an assumption right now that we will have a productive, explosive group of WR's. I would caution buying into that narrative until we see what they do on the field. On a bit of a side note, I think Graham has more work to do before he meets the expectations people currently have for him. I'll save the reasons why for another post if anyone is interested, I would just say in spring he looked to me like he has a lot of work to do to refine his game.

I'm still excited about the season, I think the defense could be exceptional and I think the offense really has the potential to grow. Fortunately, the schedule will provide some time for the offense to gel and I think we have a really good offensive coaching staff. But man there are a lot of questions that need to be answered on that side of the ball. I know we will have some answers, just not sure how many answers we will have and how long it will take for those answers to emerge.

Regardless, looking forward to the season and despite this little bit of pessimism, hope everyone enjoys the excitement that comes with a new season of college football. Go Irish!