Pre-Pre-Season Musings

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 06:36 (14 days ago)

1. Our biggest weakness last year was 3rd/4th and short. We had 12 1st downs on 27 3rd and short attempts last year (44%), an awful figure. IN 2024 we were at 57%. I can't parse for 4th and short but in 2024 we were 7th in 4th down conversion percentage, and fell 50 spots last year to 57th. I don't think it's just a mobile QB question for Denbrock (in 2023 our rushing conversion percentage on 3rd and short was 60%).

Still, none of these figures represent rarefied air. Indiana last year, a good but by no means legendary rushing attack, picked up 80% of their 3rd and short rushing attempts. We were specifically in that zone when we used Riley Leonard (76% conversions on 3rd/4th and short attempts). Our best RB in such situations recently has been 2023 Gi'Bran Payne (65%), who did most of his damage from a Wildcat package. For comparison, Audric Estime was 4 for 12 on 3rd and short that year (ouch!). JD Price was 4 of 10. Even Jeremiyah Love was only 6 of 12 last year (and at least 2 or 3 or those conversions came from the Wildcat.

Long story short: Denbrock needs to figure out a +1 solution in the run game on 3rd/4th and short. I don't know if it's Hebert, or one of the RBs, or something else, but we are looking at a brightly painted Achilles Heel here and need to get ahead of it.

On the flipside: Aneyas Williams, for what it's worth, is 6 for 7 (86%) in 3rd/4th and short conversions in his career. If he can exceed Love/Price in just this one area, it can be transformative to the ceiling of the team.


2. I'm very interested to see how the passing attack shapes up. Faison sure seems to pass the eye test, but he also failed to rank among the Top 100 receivers nationally in any statistical category. Denbrock has a pretty good history of matriculating receivers upward in production, though: Nabers and Thomas doubled their production from 2021 to 2022 at LSU, and then again from 2022 to 2023. Alec Pierce and Tyler Scott quadrupled their production at Cincinnati between 2020 and 2021.

I think the best case scenario would be Faison taking a jump up toward the 1,200 yard range, and then either Greathouse or Gilbert or Graham or someone coming in with a cool 800 yards or so; seems like that would create plenty of space for a full-field attack, especially if we can stay on the field (see #1)

3. Defensively my biggest concern is probably depth at DE when it comes to defending the run/setting the edge. Traore and Young are both really good at this, but it looks like behind them will be Keeley (talented guy who has had trouble staying on the field - not a great bode) and Dunham (freshman, run defense a concern until proven otherwise). Like with short yardage on offense, this is a potentially tragic flaw in an otherwise extremely sound defense. It hurts doubly that KVA will be out to start the year, because he's our best linebacker in this regard as well. IF your edge setting is suspect it can become very hard to get off the field. I think I'd add as a concern that having a new DL coach will entail new teaching points, techniques, etc. so add transition costs onto this already discomfiting area of concern.

The fix for #1

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 17:11 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
edited by KGB, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 17:21

is having an OL who just straight-up fucking murders people on the regular. Rudolph has been building toward this for a couple of years now, with an inordinate number of serious injuries slowing the process. There is no slowing shit now, bc we have established a level of depth to overcome this.

The 1a fix is called Aneyas Williams + Kedren Young, plus a dash of Nolan James. I'm not concerned about short yardage.

Regarding #2, there's no freaking way that Faison will approach 1200 yards, but he'll likely be in the 800-900 range and super productive. I don't know why this wouldn't register in whatever you were looking at statistically, but the man converted an insane number of first downs on his catches in 2025, percentage-wise. His efficiency rate on conversions could not have been matched by too many other receivers nationally.

Regarding #3, Rodney Dunham is going to be a superstar sooner rather than later. Also, who on this schedule is even capable of exposing whatever weakness in depth one has to strain to see at DE? Our opponents up til the trip to Provo will be lucky to rush for 100 yards. They're all going to get fucking smushed. It would be more of a concern if we had last year's schedule, but this is clearly not that.

I hope that Faison playing spring football

by omahadomer, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 15:54 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

will pay dividends. He's one of the best athletes (maybe the best) on the team. Developing better chemistry with Carr would help. Faison only had 50 yards receiving in the first two games (though obviously the quality of the opponent factors into it) and 590 in the remaining 10 games. I hope we have a reliable big-bodied receiver who can force teams in match-up problems. Fields did pretty well in that respect last year but I'm hoping for better this year.

I'm not sure what the right answer is on 3rd and 4th and short. In 2024 it was easy -- have Leonard run the ball. Last year, I was among those moaning about the Wildcat. Teams always seemed to find the right gap to plug. I don't know if we telegraphed it or what. I also didn't understand leaving Carr on the field as a WR. It seemed to me to defeat the idea of getting a +1.

If you basically tell the other team that the play is going to be a give to a TB it's pretty hard to gain two yards between the tackles assuming you have an opponent of major conference quality. One advantage Leonard (or any running QB) had or has is that he's standing up when he gets the ball so he can more easily see where the creases are. There was one play in a playoff game where the play was designed to go to the left but a crease opened the right and Leonard galloped for about 25 yards.

I'm really high on Williams. Rewatching the highlights of the PSU game, we would not have won that game but for him. He came up large both in the passing and the running game. I'm glad he stuck around after basically not playing last year. I'm sure he had big NIL offers elsewhere.

I really hope we identify a QB2 and get him some meaningful action early on. If Carr gets dinged we need someone who can run more than 20% of the playbook.

--
"Somewhere in Middle America"

This was bursting to come out with all the soccer talk, huh?

by cdawg, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 15:29 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

I speak both, so ...

Let's simplify and say that if Craig is healthy and Knapp is truly a "people mover" at guard, then even basic inside concepts should work well in short yardage. Add to that Lambert and a healthy Flanagan next to one another and off tackle/outside are in play, so there's enough variability to keep defenses off balance even when playing for run. RG will be a bit if a question mark but as long as it isn't a weakness, we should be good.

If we decide to throw against a loaded box then a healthy Faison will almost always be open. He's too quick to cover 1 on 1. Graham is an x factor here if he lives up to Spring hype, so that 2 guys that are uncoverable. Anything else is overthinking it, IMO.

On your 3) I think our defense will be dominant if healthy. We can't lose a safety and need KVA at 85%+. As you know, he is a massive variable and paired with Moore and Tae, it's too much for an offense to avoid all 3. The new DTs/SDE just need to be solid against the run and, as you note, in short yardage, where we were horrible last year.

TE blocking is another factor.

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 17:26 (13 days ago) @ cdawg

It's going from mid-ish in 2025 to "6th OL" territory this fall. Having better options at receiver also allows Denbrock to get a more block-forward tight end on the field without feeling bad about it.

That's a really good point

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 17:53 (13 days ago) @ KGB

Going from 1.5 playable TEs (and a big WR at that) to 3 will be a big upgrade

Do we have any outside runs aside from the odd toss?

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 17:15 (13 days ago) @ cdawg

I can't remember us running anything outside of mid zone or counter. I feel like Denbrock looks at flat passes as the outside threat. He does call a nice end around every so often, and has the cojones to call them in huge moments

On #1

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 11:15 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

What was going on with our blocking/schemes? It clearly wasn't a talent at RB situation. And I don't have data on this, but goal-to-go situations seemed bad too.

Shit, there were times that our RBs bailed out our line. Recall Love's miraculous Navy TD where he was stopped in the backfield but spun out of the tackle for a TD.

We have what would be objectively considered a very talented offensive line but for whatever reason our run blocking in short yardage leaves a lot to be desired. It baffled me how the defenses get so much penetration on us.

HR kinda mailed it below

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 11:41 (13 days ago) @ Domer99

We became very basic in short yardage, decided we were over trying to be creative, and weren't dominant at any of the things you need to be dominant at in order to pick up conversions on vanilla mode. Teams also sold out at any chance to get our otherwise quite dangerous offense off the field

But that still doesn't register with me

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 15:17 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

I'd think being basic would mean that there are a lot of 1-on-1 battles. I'd expect that we could win those. We failed at a pretty high rate.

here's how I see it

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Thursday, July 09, 2026, 07:18 (13 days ago) @ Domer99

If it's 3rd and short, you basically do one of three things

1) You stay in your identity -- "it's just a normal down and our normal offense is good enough to get one yard"
2) You stay in identity but add a wrinkle -- "show them what they expect and punish for overplaying it"
3) Change the problem entirely -- come out in something different from the normal offense.

My feeling is that Denbrock tried 2&3 early on, with RPOs and wildcat. They seemed to spend a bunch of camp building those concepts but they all got scrapped after TAMU. So then they went with #1. Unfortunately, the "normal offense" was more of a big play offense than a consistent grind-it-out affair. They were definitely keeping things easy for Carr early on which led to safeties getting crept up. Ironically, we were sometimes at our best converting short yardage by throwing it deep and counting on Fields or a receiver to beat single coverage deep.

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

HR is always mailing it (in)

by Jay, San Diego, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 11:49 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

- No text -

on #1

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 07:09 (14 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

The way things played out, scraping RPOs after Miami was a fatal flaw. Turns out that Miami was absurdly good at defense and this took a critical club out of our bag for situational football.

This all was exacerbated by what our collection of skill talent was really best at. Fields was great at downfield but couldn't catch a slant to save his life. Teams could double up or play tight on Faison/Pauling and bring safeties down for extra help against the run. For obvious reasons they didn't want Carr running as much as Leonard. We were also telegraphing something in our screen game so that wasn't a good outlet either.

As you point out, Williams brings a really nice receiving skillset to combine with what appears to be a good between-the-tackles running ability. There's a lot to build off with that.

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

I think Denbrock and Rudolph have joint responsibility here

by San Pedro @, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 16:14 (13 days ago) @ HumanRobot

I’m repeating myself but this is the year for Rudolph to produce a truly great OL in sum.

Denbrock was also slow to give up on the wildcat

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 09:15 (14 days ago) @ HumanRobot

I don't know when it finally worked its way out of the playbook, but I do remember a lot of angst early in the season with repeated fails on wildcat plays.

I'm not sure how those skew the success rate from last year, and with the front loaded schedule, it may not be able to tease out wildcat failures, but if I don't see the wildcat at all in '26, it won't bother me.

--
At night, the ice weasels come.

I was always fine with it but we seemed to have 1 play.

by Chris, Raleigh, NC, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 09:20 (14 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)

Or at least fine with the idea of it.

--
"F--- everyone who isn't us."
#Team128

They should have kept it

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 09:53 (14 days ago) @ Chris

We obviously had a plan going into the season and we discarded it after two games. Then, we just just kinda ran stuff and sucked at short yardage the rest of the way.

100%. Terrible overreaction by Denbrock

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 07:53 (14 days ago) @ HumanRobot

And the Fields/slant thing obviously caught them by surprise.

One thing I think that might be worth looking at would be a 2RB set on short yardage. Say you have either Young and Williams or a Flanigan and Williams and you suddenly have credible threats up the middle with a dive or lead, to the outside with a toss or PA, or a short pass. It's surprising we never really got to see something like that with Love and Price, especially because Love was such a lethal lead blocker. It would work with this personnel grouping though - Williams especially tracks the ball very well in the short area

I'm not a huge fan of 2RB

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 11:01 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

My feelings on the matter are that you really have to commit to 2RB for it be effective and at that point you're basically running option/misdirection concepts to make 2RB work.

I guess you could have used Price or Love as a lead blocker but at that point you're exposing a 1st round talent to additional injury risk.

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

As a context specific package

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 12:03 (13 days ago) @ HumanRobot

You're (last year excepted) rolling with a boutique package of short yardage stuff anyway. Not too different from 3 TE or whatever. Hell, you could do it with 12 personnel so long as you rep the move TE on taking the odd handoff

more heresy

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 12:55 (13 days ago) @ Mike (bart)

I think Rees did a really good job in 2022 with coming up with just such a package. Mitchapalooza was a gimmick but it really worked nicely because he drew up a couple counters off that look. The Gator Bowl was a master class.

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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian

Agreed. It's definitely a Denbrock weak spot

by Mike (bart), Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 13:06 (13 days ago) @ HumanRobot

Seems like a narrow bag of tricks intended to be executed well (a la Leonard with Love as a lead blocker). Once he got out of that last year we were kinda sunk

wash your mouth out

by Jay, San Diego, Wednesday, July 08, 2026, 11:51 (13 days ago) @ HumanRobot

You know the lack of 2RB in a ND offense is abject heresy

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