I just voted for something I don’t want.

Which was to allow gerrymandering in Virginia.
It feels like I’m voting to allow cheating.
Since my opponents are cheating, I have to cheat back.
What a crazy time we’re living through.
I feel like I need a shower.

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they decided 5-4 in Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) that refereeing political gerrymandering was a "political question" and there weren't "judicially manageable standards" to enforce. The maps were grotesque and one from a red state and one from a blue state (Maryland was the blue state and N.C. the red state).

The maps were ridiculous. Although N.C. has been very close in terms of total votes cast for each party in congressional elections, they managed to squeeze out a map that split it 10-3 in favor of the GOP. Kagan in dissent said essentially "I know it when I see it." She pointed out that of 300 randomly generated maps, none produced a 10-3 split.

Texas may come to regret the map it drew. They had to water down a lot of really safe GOP seats to come up with 5 more that are supposedly going to be red. But the way things are going a lot of those R+10 to R+6 seats that they thought were safe are looking to be mighty competitive, especially where the Dems have recruited good candidates.

NE-2, which has been in GOP hands for all but 2 of the last 20 years looks likely to switch blue. The Dems have a bunch of good candidates in a primary and the certain GOP nominee is full MAGA. Retiring Rep. Don Bacon walked a very fine line and managed to hang on in extremely close elections as the overall district got more blue. (Biden and Harris both carried it.) I'm not donating in the Dem primary but I will definitely support the Democratic nominee in the general.

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"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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particular, I believe.

They made the mistake of thinking the Hispanic vote shift towards Trump in 2024 was permanent. The 2025 elections in New Jersey and Virginia showed it snapped right back. Yes, I know the Hispanic vote is not monolithic but polling shows in Texas the same thing is happening.

Both parties seem to miss constantly that it's just about the most "fluid" voting group in the country. Trump in 2024 didn't do any better than George W. Bush in 2004, and that didn't last in the next election either.

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by state. Texas politics are complicated and I'm not an expert but I imagine that the counties that border Mexico where Trump did well are likely heavily populated with 2nd and 3rd generation Mexican immigrants.

There's a "drawbridge" mentality to most immigrant groups, which is "I'm here legally and you're not" so tightening the southern border might've seemed like a good idea. But when it got to yanking anyone with brown skin (citizen or not) out of their cars and homes and detaining them then not so great.

Their votes are far removed from Cuban-Americans in Florida. Cuban exiles get vastly preferable immigration treatment and the GOP hardline stance on Cuba appeals to them. It will get interesting if something big actually happens with regard to Cuba. I was hoping Obama would end the embargo on his way out but it obviously didn't happen.

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"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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Talarico won a lot of Hispanic votes against Crockett in part because of historical voting divisions in Texas between black and Hispanic voters.
The biggest issue with the Hispanic vote is that they just don’t turn out in the same numbers as black voters. And when they do turn out they are often motivated by social issues because many are conservative Catholics.
But if the Hispanic vote turns generally against the GOP that will be very welcome news.

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there's also (I suspect) a strong religious strain in high propensity Black voters, hence the efforts in Georgia to get rid of "Souls to the Polls." While Talarico might have a harder time convincing younger Blacks who turned out for Crockett to get to the polls I doubt he'll have any trouble with church-going Blacks.

I suspect (you'd know better) that he has a better chance against Paxton than Conryn. There's a decent segment of Trump voters who are sometimes called "MAGA adjacent." There's a lot about Trump they don't like, but they saw him as better on economic issues (and voting for a Black woman was a bridge too far) and tolerated his horrid behavior. Paxton probably would fire up the true MAGA base but the hard core of it is melting and is maybe 30% nationally of voters. The MAGA adjacent voters might view Conryn as tolerable but Paxton as disgusting. Whether they'd stay home or actually vote for Talarico is hard to know.

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too far. If Texas flips, the Senate is going to turn very blue. But to turn it blue, Ossoff has to hang on in Georgia, Brown has to win, etc. Those all seem much more in reach than turning a huge state where Trump won by almost 14 points in 2024. Biden came closer in 2020 but it was still 5.5 points, which is a lot of raw votes in Texas. Clinton lost it by 9 points. I guess we can safely say that a white man probably has the best odds.

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"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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because Paxton has no fans outside of MAGA core. Conventional wisdom for sure - but also conforms to gut feel - I think barring an unforced error, Tallarico takes it going away against Paxton, but probably loses in a squeaker against Cornyn. There are enough right-leaning independents in the state that will see relatively anodyne and predictable Cornyn as still preferable to a democrat, and if Paxton wins, there are a good number of republicans who will be pissed at Paxton for threatening a "safe" seat and may just stay home or vote out of spite.

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I don't want to say he doesn't care anymore but he's acting like it. From a political standpoint, he's burning his second term to the ground. The war, the tariffs, the random spending cuts, the shutdowns -- none of it is popular. He knows he's going to lose the House and he might not care whether he loses the Senate, but he should re appointments and the like.

I just don't think he can bring himself to endorse against Paxton. He said he was going to endorse and expected the other one to drop out, but TACO.

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"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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I live in a gerrymandered state and hate the very concept. The shape of my district is ridiculous. But until Trump is out of office (at least), you have to fight fire with fire. He did this.

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I took a lot of pride in the fact that, for such a partisan state, the congressional districting was still done by an independent council.

But you have fight the fight that's in front of you.

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I looked at it once and there are about 10 of them and the only red one is Idaho (I think) and it barely matters there as the state is so red.

It won't happen, but I think Congress would have the power to pass a statute that required that no district have more than 55% (or whatever) registered voters of the same party, unless it's impossible (as in single district states).

Ironic that the same people who argue for term limits create super-safe districts where the incumbent raises money only to give it away to other candidates to increase his or her power.

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"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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is a democratically voted on change to allow a temporary redistricting of the state. This is in stark contrast to what has occurred in TX, NC, and MO, which were passed by state legislatures and Governor, with no voter input.

Yes, it's all ugly and distasteful, but at least one side lets the voters have the final say in it.

Good job NDinVA!

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It removes a district in Kansas City that has likely been Democratic since the days of Harry Truman.

If the 12 or so Republicans in the Indiana Senate hadn't quashed it, the same thing would have been done in Indianapolis and Gary.

The best anti-gerrymandering law I've read about is in Iowa, where congressional districts can't cross county lines. More populated states with big cities can't do that, but there have to be other ways.

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part of what's brought us to this place.

I hate it. It's unworthy of this country. But this is battlefield medicine right now.

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1. They will only enforce the new maps if the Rs do it in other states.
2. If they do switch to the new maps, they will automatically revert to the old maps in 2031 after the next census.
This all assumes that this amendment actually passes.
It’s so confusing I think a lot of people will accidentally vote the wrong way.

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the Polo Grounds

I just voted for something I don’t want.

The Supreme Court could've slowed this down --

They're going to regret redrawing the Latino districts in

I suspect that the Hispanic vote is more consistent

Well said

Talarico probably can speak to them better then --

I'm pretty surprised Trump hasn't yet gone all in for Cornyn

Trump isn't very strategic --

Yep. Gerrymandering is a plague

Felt the same when I voted for it in CA

Unfortunately, almost all independent-comm'n states are blue

Adding to this. What is occurring in VA (similar to CA)

The one in Missouri is about as bad as it can get

Yeah. It's gross. But "When they go low, we go high" is

The 2 redeeming factors are