it's also about desperation. Creed Humphrey made 18m last year and he was the leagues highest paid Center.

The Raiders just signed Tyler Linderbaum (Ravens FA Center) to a 3yr 81m dollar deal with essentially all the money guaranteed.

The Raiders made Linderbaum the highest paid player at his position by 9m dollars (27m annually).

Holy Hell!

handed out by ESPN's free-agency analyst.

++++++++++++

Dolphins sign QB Malik Willis
Terms: Three years, $67.5 million, with $45 million fully guaranteed

Grade: A

Sometimes all the dot-connecting before free agency does foretell a signing. Ever since the Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan -- both from the Packers -- as their coach and general manager, they have been linked to Willis given their experience with him and Miami's need at quarterback.

And Willis represents exactly what the Dolphins need: quarterbacking upside.

Let's get the negatives out of the way. Miami is betting on a tiny sample -- only three starts as a Packer. Those starts came with an elite offensive designer in Matt LaFleur. Willis didn't even throw that much in those starts, and his first two seasons in Tennessee didn't go well. Despite all that, I find Willis to be an incredibly compelling option.

His numbers were outrageous in Green Bay -- an 86.3 QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback and a plus-7% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those stats would all rank first over the past two seasons among QBR qualifiers if Willis kept up that hot pace in a bigger sample.

And Willis also looked incredible in his Week 17 start against the Ravens, showing off his ability to throw with anticipation and on the run, change his arm angles and, of course, display his exceptional speed.

It is very hard to find a franchise quarterback in free agency, and I'm not saying that's what Willis is, or even likely to be. But if it were to happen, it'd be a lot like this: a quarterback with draft status who took time to develop, then showed enough flashes in a sample that was small enough to get him to free agency. There's a real chance here. And the Willis signing doesn't even cost that much.

At $22.5 million per year, the contract is a bargain considering what Willis could become. But even more than for most deals, the most important part of this contract is the $45 million that's fully guaranteed at signing. Because if Willis fails, that's how much Miami will have to pay. And if he succeeds, they'll end up needing to sign him to a new contract right away anyway.

Even with that guarantee, this is an incredible result relative to the alternatives. There is only one Fernando Mendoza in the draft, and the Dolphins are not going to get him. Instead of trotting out a veteran bridge quarterback, it makes sense to play for the upside. And Willis has tons of it.

the Jets will be too dumb to draft him.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is somewhat related to the relative decline in passing numbers. Total passing yards have dropped by like 20% from the early 2020s peaks, and are now the lowest in a few decades. I've seen various theories on that, whether it's defensive schemes/coaching catching up, QBs who aren't ready (or aren't as good) at processing what they're seeing, and/or generational talent drop off.

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