Dave Wasserman has seen enough

He’s calling the race for Talarico.

Paxton and Cornyn will be in a runoff.

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She is a brilliant communicator, a good lawyer, a hard worker, and a fearless fighter against the excesses and corruption of the MAGA billionaire class. She has served her constituents in downtown Dallas (where I reside) and her entire district very well as a Member of Congress. She won my vote (by mail, I did not fall victim to the Dallas County GOP polling place chicanery) last night.

I will certainly vote for and enthusiastically support Talarico in November. His ability to message the New Testament as supportive of progressive government, particularly as a call to halt the disgraceful inequality of wealth in America, is inspiring. He has a chance to succeed in November.

But I will lament the racism and misogyny laced through "common wisdom" commentary, whether true or not, that Jasmine Crockett was "unelectable."

If I ever need a trial lawyer in Dallas County Texas to represent me, Jasmine Crockett would be my first call (Dallasdomer would be a close second)

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racism and sexism to the electability, I think the reason many view Talarico as more electable is how he rose in fame. He went and talked on Fox News regularly, went on Rogan frequently. He was reaching out to audiences outside the current Dem tent. Reminded me of Mayor Pete in that way. Those are votes needed to win in Texas. Basically any Dem Senate candidate will need to win some portion of votes that will vote for Abbott.

Maybe Crockett could have done it as well, but some of her history (Governor Hot Wheels, MTG fights) indicated she was more of a "drive the base" type of candidate. And the base, even super-charged, won't win in Texas any time soon.

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Pritzker? Fat Cat Billionaire
Shapiro? Jewish
Harris? Blasian Female
Buttigieg? Gay
Newsom? Hollywood Pretty Boy
Sanders? Old White Hippie
Moore? Black
Mamdani? Muslim
AOC? Latino Female
Klobuchar? Female

Whose left?

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How did he win in 2008 in a landslide without the endorsement of the Cheney family?

I think most of those potential candidates’ problems are that they are mediocre politicians with uninspiring messages.

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I mean, yes, he's a fat cat billionaire. But he comes off scrappier. Not a Wall St, Epstein-class type. It may be an issue with the deep Dem base, but my sense is the general swing votes out there care more about slickness than actual wealth. So I think it's more likely to harm Newsom than Pritzker. But maybe the IL folks have a more informed view.

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My political leanings are in line with most here, and I think he's done an admirable job in Illinois. The people in my orbit here who lean further right (and particularly those who lean MUCH further right) think he's a complete disaster.

Since everyone on the right can only associate Illinois with Chicago, and can only see Chicago as a crime-ridden hive of Democratic corruption, I expect they would be more than happy to run/campaign against him.

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Unless the Democrats nominate little Marco, the nominee will be seen as an extreme leftist.

The democrats can decide whether to be extreme centrists, ie, trying to attract votes without any actual positions (Harris's campaign and StarmerAI would excite the Lawfare profs!), or they can actually develop and defend a platform for improvements that they'd like to make.

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Centrist democrat who won in deep red country?

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worked for Al Gore but for less than a thousand votes.

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left office and was 3 when Carter left office. Could you be thinking of his dad?

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Being a centrist Democrat from a deep red state worked for Carter and Clinton.

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It's been really interesting for me to read that the primary response to Talarico's win is that "Texas Democrats chose electability". It's its own dog whistle.

You can't ignore the wider range of opportunities for a white man than a black woman in America, but if you hold that such discrimination is wrong, then I think you have to actively acknowledge the harm of its existence in any circumstance when you bend to it or you risk simply perpetuating it.

I'm also surprised at the electability narrative because I just think Talarico is great. He's Bernie but 50 years younger and has a story for evangelical Christians. I mean, wow, what a great candidate.

It's a litmus test, but Crockett's hugging of Israel tells me enough about her distance from the still failing Dem establishment. Let's go Talarico!

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It's clear a lot of the "unelectable" label is about her color. And that's gross. And makes a lot of progressives uncomfortable, because we don't wish it so. But she's running statewide in Texas. Do we ignore the reality of entrenched racism there? Racism isn't Voldemort. You don't need to say its name for it to be there.

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but I do think it's notable that the national narrative about Talarico is focused on "electability". It implies "I'm racist" or "I assume more than half of voters in Texas are unredeemably racist", which is maybe a fair assumption, with which something like 47% of D primary voters in Texas would seem to disagree.

I think Talarico is a really interesting candidate who won majorities in Lefty Austin and among border Latinos. Perhaps because he's creating a progressive narrative about class solidarity informed by old time Christian values. Or perhaps the non-black Texans couldn't vote for a black woman. Probably both, but one is more fun for me to talk about.

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all seem to just skim the surface, mentioning "hey here's a Democrat not afraid to talk about religion!" when in fact he's a hardcore social justice progressive, and possibly even to the left of Crockett on policy in some areas. None of these thumbnails seem to drill down on just how different he is. They seem to take him as just a religious guy wearing a 'D' instead of an 'R'.

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Both of them would be country miles better than Cornyn and light years better than Paxton. Hell, they hardly disagree with each other on anything as it is.

Nominate who can win. If that's only because of style, well, welcome to politics.

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Being “unelectable”, if you unpack it, probably involves some measure as being seen as an uppity black woman. That anyone prefers Paxton over her shows what’s allowable for some in our society and not for others.

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but curious what the issues with Crockett are. I know she is fairly vocal.

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But I didn't think she could win a statewide race in Texas. Far too confrontational in a place that needs an expanded tent. She's great at what she does - and I hope she continues to have an important role - but I think Talarico gives Dems the best shot.

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(IMO) Bernie and Warren are extremely well suited for the Senate but not the presidency. Some politicians need to remember to play to their strengths. Others have more upward mobility.

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To win in Texas, you need to have a big tent - her campaign was hyper focused on bringing out certain racial/ethnic groups. I don't think that's a winning strategy. I'd call her more than vocal - her exchange with MTG was unprofessional and immature. We should expect more from Senate candidates than getting sucked into an insult fest with the bottom feeders of the GOP. Just my $.02, I'm by no means a Texas election guru.

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the HOR. Should it be? No. But it certainly has been.

But we should expect more from the Senate. And for most of our history, we've gotten it.

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Calling Abbott “governor hot wheels” should have been a career ender.

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actions I've seen/heard over the past decade. So...nah. Them first.

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But she had a very narrow appeal. Harris endorsed her late which says something about her political savvy.

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that anyone would vote for Ken Paxton. That guy belongs in jail.

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He owns a rental property not too far from me that he (allegedly) had renovated for free by a (allegedly) corrupt real estate developer who also employed Ken’s mistress. The RE developer was way in over his head and Ken, as AG, put a moratorium on certain auction proceedings during COVID to buy this guy some time. The men who were trying to buy these properties at auction are also (allegedly) a serial arsonist and cocaine dealer (in a very loose sense of the word), respectively. One of them (the alleged arsonist who also owns the local Mercedes dealership) strongly backed George P Bush against Paxton for the last AG race only to get smacked down. I don’t know why more of this isn’t made locally… it’s like scandals just don’t matter anymore.

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conference. I was stopped in my tracks when I saw the Cornyn presser (and presumably the rest of his campaign festivities) was taking place at my hotel.

And then my immediate thought was one of disgust, because it could be so much worse.

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Let us know if you need food recommendations. God forbid you have to eat at the hotel restaurant.

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But I’d rather have Cornyn even as that lessens Talarico’s chances than the prospect of Ken Paxton as Senator.

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I actually assumed Paxton would be close to the 50% threshold given his unparalleled MAGA credentials. But Cornyn did better than expected so I assume some non-zero number of republicans cannot vote for Paxton. I just don't know who gets the 13% that voted for Hunt. And I think Trump has resisted getting involved because his advisors are telling him that Cornyn is safer but he of course likes Paxton better because of his unwavering MAGAness. If the advisors around Trump convince him to endorse Cornyn, then I think he can win. IF he stays neutral or endorses Paxton, Paxton will win. I think Trump never wants to endorse a LOSER though so I am not sure he trusts that Cornyn will win even if he did support him.

And I agree with you, I remember hearing in 2016 how Dems should want Trump because he'd be easier to beat. Problem is when you don't beat those awful candidates, you get stuck with them. At least one way or another Paxton won't be our AG anymore and that is a good thing.

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Will a significant number of Paxton voters not vote in the general?

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Which makes sense…

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Is that his early career support was based on strength among GOP women as his wife was a state senator. Everyone thought the adultery tinged divorce would kill him but it hasn’t. He’s a Texas Trump.

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About 1.6 million in the Dem primary and 1.5 in the GOP primary and both sides had plenty to vote for. It seems like electability was the big issue on the Democratic side. Paxton is a dangerous nut on the GOP side.

--
"Somewhere in Middle America"

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I had thought it would be Crockett based on historical norms, especially with a black female candidate. I was wrong and gladly so. Now, we need Paxton to win the runoff, which seems likely, but I am out of the prediction business.
What Talarico did wearing his faith on his sleeve doesn’t excite me personally but much will be written about how that approach will be a a winner for Dems in red and purple areas. That, and military service are powerful tonics to the GOP’s claim of “radical left.”

How he describes his candidacy would have been unimaginable in the state of my youth.

“2,000 years ago, when the powerful few rigged the system, that barefoot rabbi walked into the seat of power and flipped over the tables of injustice. To those who love our country, to those who love our neighbors:

It’s time to start flipping tables.”

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the Polo Grounds

Dave Wasserman has seen enough

Good for Dems. Crockett is not a threat to GOP.

Jasmine Crockett is my Member of Congress

While I agree there's definitely components there of both

Looking ahead to '28, what Democrat isn't "unelecteble"?

What made Obama electable?

Yes

Mamdani was born in Uganda.

That’s OK.Obama was born in Kenya.

Pritzker may be able to avoid that tag

He'd be an interesting case on a national level

Isn't that what they'd say about everyone?

Andy Beshear?

Worked for Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, and would have

Confused, I think he was 20 years old when Clinton

I think he's referring to the strategy

I'm clearly slow, makes sense

Yes, thanks for saying this.

Is acknowledging racism a racist stance?

Texas was one of the nastiest slaveocracies at one point.

I don’t think it is. A bit surprised at the response I got

I didn't mean anything as a personal attack

the shorthand profiles of Talarico as a "Dem Christian"

Might be how to win in Texas. More power to him

I’m glad you brought this up

I haven't followed this race much

I'm a fan of hers.

Exactly. She has a great skillset for the HOR. Just like

I don't think she's a coalition builder

That type of rhetoric is kind of part of the tradition of

The MTG exchange was one thing

It doesn't even rate in the top 1000 of 'career-ender'

Agreed.

She has branded herself a “fighter”

I find it amazing

Some people want to watch the world burn…

I'm actually in Austin. My company is putting on a

Hope you’re enjoying the weather…

It ain’t over yet…

I can't tell how that one ends

There’s another question if Cornyn wins the runoff

Trump expected to endorse Cornyn…

Even more amazing

More total votes in Dem primary thus far --

Texas Dems voted for electability