We're 13th
Ahead of undefeateds BYU and Memphis, and 8 slots ahead of Texas, the only other ranked 2-loss team.
USC is #20.
Updated scoreboard/playoff watching
by Jeff (BGS) 
, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, October 12, 2025, 20:10 (1 day, 11 hours, 1 min. ago) @ IrishGuard
edited by Jeff (BGS), Monday, October 13, 2025, 19:10
If you buy that any P2 team is alive at 10-2 and out at 9-3, this weekend saw a little movement:
The B1G saw three teams get eliminated and three more lost their margin for error
On the path (6): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Southern Cal, Nebraska, Washington
No margin for error (6): Michigan*, Maryland*, Illinois*, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa
Out (6): Penn State*, Michigan State*, Rutgers*, UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue
The SEC is still shaking itself out, but there are a lot of games between the top teams over the rest of the season
On the path (9): LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, Vanderbilt
No margin for error (2): Texas, Mississippi State
Out (5): South Carolina*, Auburn*, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
Over the rest of October, I suspect we'll see 4-6 teams per week slide down the scale, with a couple of teams eliminate each week.
The ACC and Big XII are a little more nebulous, but NC State, FSU, Kansas, and UCF all notched their third loss, while Arizona, Arizona State, Iowa State, and TCU all lost their second game. The ACC might end up a 2-bid conference, but its looking like the Big XII will need an upset in their championship game to get two teams in.
* represents a change
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At night, the ice weasels come.
this is awesome stuff
by HumanRobot , Cybertron, Monday, October 13, 2025, 05:32 (1 day, 1 hours, 40 min. ago) @ Jeff (BGS)
I have some full datasets now of schedule and FPI data. Send me a note if I can help you with anything.
I did the Monte Carlo thing. Here's the ones with better than 50/50 odds of 2 or fewer losses:
team 0-loss 1-loss 2-loss Indiana 8292 10000 10000 Ohio State 7799 9863 10000 Miami 6941 9611 9989 Texas Tech 4666 8842 9899 Oregon 0 4111 8617 Ole Miss 832 3996 7758 Alabama 0 3339 7572 Texas A&M 759 3537 7339 Virginia 0 2722 7196 Georgia 0 2574 7114 BYU 533 2857 6424 Utah 0 2027 6110 Georgia Tech 194 2199 6032
My feeling is the rules are going to end up being "2 loss for B1G/SEC, 1 loss for B12/ACC".
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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian
Shockingly high on Indiana
In 10,000 sims, they get to two losses zero times?
it's all about remainind schedule
by HumanRobot , Cybertron, Monday, October 13, 2025, 11:25 (19 hours, 46 minutes ago) @ Aaron (Shakespeare)
FPI has them at 22.7.
Michigan State is -1.669
Wisconsin is 0.11
Purdue is -2.398
PSU is 13.092
UCLA is 0.023
Maryland is 4.418
The "100%" win prob kicks in at 16 points. For context, UNLV and UTSA straddle the 0.0 mark.
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Freeman's got so much riz they need to call him Aura Parseghian
Thanks. I think you are right on the rules
by Jeff (BGS) , A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, October 13, 2025, 06:45 (1 day, 0 hours, 26 min. ago) @ HumanRobot
I like doing the analysis behind these as well.
There may be a couple of ACC teams being OK with 2 losses: Miami, FSU, Clemson (two of which are already out). Plus, I wouldn't count out all of the 3-loss SEC teams, but again, that would probably be limited to name brands. Missouri, Mississippi State, and Vandy wont make it in with three losses. I kind of doubt LSU would this season as well.
The more interesting thing to me is the games that immediately matter and don't matter each week.
In the B1G (plus ND), there are three 5-1/4-2 games guaranteed to push someone down the ladder this week:
- 5-1 Nebraska at 4-2 Minnesota
- 5-1 Southern Cal at 4-2 Notre Dame
- 5-1 Washington at 4-2 Michigan
everything else significant would be an upset
The SEC is more convoluted since some big games don't immediately matter.
- 5-1 LSU at 5-1 Vanderbilt doesn't kick anyone out
- neither does 5-1 Tennessee at 5-1 Alabama
- same for 6-0 Mississippi at 5-1 Georgia
like the B1G, everything else significant would be an upset, although 3-3 Auburn is favored over 5-1 Missouri, and 2-4 Florida is fairly heavily favored over 4-2 Mississippi State.
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At night, the ice weasels come.
I know you have to keep them in --
but Nebraska, Michigan, and Minnesota have less of a chance of making it than I do being elected Pope.
I’d put a few Jaybucks on Nebraska, with odds, of course
by Jeff (BGS) , A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, October 13, 2025, 10:59 (20 hours, 13 minutes ago) @ omahadomer
With Minnesota’s schedule, they have no shot. Michigan’s is a little easier, and they seem to have Ohio State’s number, but the odds are definitely against them.
I’m not sure 10-2 Nebraska would make the playoffs, but they are currently ranked and their schedule isn’t horrible to get to 11-1. But, you know them WAAAAAY better than I do, of course. My uneducated guess would be something like 100:1.
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At night, the ice weasels come.
Navy is 30th
by Jeff (BGS) , A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, October 12, 2025, 15:50 (1 day, 15 hours, 21 min. ago) @ IrishGuard
Still no love for Pitt
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At night, the ice weasels come.
Next to USC, Pitt is the most dangerous game --
it's at their place. They're wildly inconsistent but the good team always seems to show up against ND.
Yep the game with the Yinzers scares me the mostest
by KelleyCook , Sunday, October 12, 2025, 19:02 (1 day, 12 hours, 9 min. ago) @ omahadomer
In regard to ND, Purdue refers to themselves the Spoilermakers, but its Pitt which has had our number forever.