If you remove the three years when Rodriguez had Slaton and White, his overall coaching record is rather Willinghamesque.

Rodriguez's record with Slaton/White (2005-2007): 32-5.

His record without Slaton/White (2001-2004, 2008): 31-30, with at least 4 losses in every season.

Given that history and UM's cupcake-laden 2009 schedule, I think their fan base would be as receptive to 6-6 this year as we were last year -- i.e., not at all. And I think they'd be every bit as justified in feeling that way as we were.

suppose Rodriguez gets Michigan to 6-6 in the regular season next year and then the Wolverines kill some team in a small bowl game. What will be the consensus as to Michigan's future on Rodriguez? My guess is that most ND fans would think that he has a reasonable chance to succeed.

It points out the difficulty of being objective about one's team. Because of emotional investment, it's easy to swing one way or the other depending upon particular games.

That said, I'd be breathing much easier about Weis if ND had finished 8-5 or 9-4 last year. I still fear that some of Weis's bad tendencies towards hubris will kill him again if things start to improve.

This is one reason why I was alright with Weis getting another year, and why I'm not sure that looking at the raw win/loss numbers is the correct way to ascertain the future of a Coach in a situation that Rodriguez is in this year (and Charlie found himself last year).

Watching the 2008 season, despite the fact that we lost some games that we shouldn't have (UNC, MSU, SU, Pitt), I believe any rational observer could compare the two and realize that our 2008 team overall looked nothing like the 2007 team. At times they were inept, and the lack of a run game was disturbing, but our offense was far more dynamic than it was in 2007 and we were much more of a threat than we had been the year before. We can bemoan the narrow losses, but the 2007 team wouldn't have been in most of them at the end.

UM, on the other hand, by looking at their schedule, could possibly end up 6-6 while still looking almost as bad as their 2008 counterparts. Home wins over Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan (Southern Michigan must not have been available), Indiana, Delaware State, and Purdue, while snagging a game from either Iowa, Wisconsin, or Illinois while not being competitive against PSU, OSU, ND, and the remainder of the Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois would probably put UM on only the barest of upward trajectories.

That being said, it's also possible that UM wins those 6 games by quite a bit, and is competitive in their remaining 6. That would put them on a distinct upward trajectory. As for the likelihood of this occurring? Honestly -- I have a problem finding that 6th win in the UM football schedule. I don't think their team is on par with any of Iowa, Wisconsin, or Illinois. Luckily for Rodriguez, they should be able to beat last years win total solely on the strength of the Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Delaware State gauntlet they have to run.

The first two years were the best by any coach at ND since Ara. Wins, winning percentage, degree of improvement over the last two years of the prior regime, scoring differential, etc.

The next two years were, all told, one of the very worst stretches in ND history.

ND, after all was said and done, was one of the most improved teams in the country in 2008. We were +3.5 in wins and +181 in points. That's on par with the gains made by UNC and Pitt and slightly below what Alabama accomplished. But you can't look at that and fail to comment on the fact that ND was coming off a 3-9 sh*tfest.

For me, the thing that was most encouraging about the Hawaii Bowl was the fact that the team was able to lock in and play well, and respond to the coaching staff, despite the way the regular season ended. For lack of a better term, the got up off the mat.

I ran the numbers on all 44 BCS conference/affiliated bowl teams (which I will post back here this week) and what that showed is that ND was the youngest of all those teams. We managed to make, and win, a bowl game despite the fact that true freshmen started more games than 5th year seniors. That's almost unheard of in college football.

But again, that must be tempered by that fact that the two other youngest teams were Georgia Tech and Florida. Now, Florida is just scary. But Georgia Tech is another story. Lost in the shuffle, it seems, is the fact that that program won 16 games over Gailey's last two seasons and always seemd to pull off at least one upset. Also, Georgia Tech played not one but two IAA teams. When they played a refocused LSU team they got throttled.

As I've said many times, on paper last years team bore a striking resemblance to the 2004 team. And in the end that is what they ended up showing on the field. THe key diffference being that we won our bowl game convincingly and add a Top 20ish recruiting class that has several projected impact players.

It follows that on paper the 2009 team is going to look a great deal like the group from 2005. Only on paper the 2009 team is going to be more experienced and more talented.

I expect ND to be a BCS caliber team in 2009. That's not a rah rah, pie in the sky expectation. That's a perfectly reasonable expectation.

It's true that ND has been, in all likelihood, the youngest major conference team the last two years. But that's in the past.

We have the talent, we have the experience, we have the maturity, we have the playmakers. Do we have an overall coaching staff that can put it all together? If I was a betting man I would bet on yes.

As an opposing fan, I am concerned Forcier will step in, pick up the offense (the spread isn't that complex -- you can either run it or you can't), and they'll be a dangerous team this year. I do think ND will beat them, in large part because we're playing them early.

I still think he'll succeed. They may not beat OSU for awhile, because OSU has cleaned up on the recruiting trail the past few years, but he's recruiting speed and quickness on offense and tough defensive lines. His class this year was a pretty good fit for him, and they'll give the Big Ten defenses fits.

But if ND were in their shoes, I'd be fixating on their inexperience at QB, their losses at RB, their corp of midget WRs, and their porous secondary. Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I think the bigger driver is how much we know about our own team. After all, some SEC fan running through a Phil Steele guide might see our welter of four-star linemen and backs and guess that we'd have a potent running game.

I had to go back and look at the losses. I'm going to blame that on selective memory and not some sort of memory loss brought on by an exceptionally poor diet.

Anyway, say ND went 8-4, but the 4 losses still occurred against 4 of the teams ND really did lose to in 2008, and those losses still happened the way they actually did in 2008.

Pick 4 and see if we are still breathing that much easier while keeping in mind the goal is a National Championship, and all debates about Weis really boil down to, "Is he equipped to win a NC?"

L to MSU: Offense was inept until Weis said, "F it. Let's throw the ball and bail on the inept running game." Sure, ND "had a chance" in the end, but it was a chance that counted on more "ifs" than is really reasonable enough to make it feel like a "good loss" if there is such a thing. ND's running game looked like we were telling MSU exactly what play was about to be run and then not bothering to try to block that play.

L to UNC: ND looks like they can lock this one up, and then the INT happens, because, as Butch Davis knows, college kids are stupid, and if you keep jumping routes, you're gonna pick a pass off eventually. Then the Irish let a lead melt away, play defense as defensively as possible against a QB who was only starting because the starter was hurt, and only have a chance at last minute heroics because of some iffy officiating. Didn't ND need a roughing the kicker call to "respond" to a score in this one as well?

L to Pitt: "Hey, everyone!" said the Pitt coaching staff, "They can't stop the run!" Oh, and there were some real head-scratchers in this one by Weis. Ultimately, no matter what, you lost to the 'Stache. And you did it by giving up a game.

L to BC: Shut out. 66 yards rushing. Jimmy goes 26-46 with 4 INTs.

L to Syracuse: Looking to put a spark in the offense or something, ND employs the little-known "don't block the NT" scheme. Also, it's a loss to Syracuse.

L to SoCal: 38-0. ND fans start taking prop bets in the 2nd half just to make it sort of funny as they try to drink themselves into Monday. 91 total yards. Weis runs out of ways to tell Carroll that they really kicked our asses after the game.

See, I just can't pick 4 or even just 3 losses and then have a serious discussion trying to convince anyone that Weis is the guy that can win ND a NC. Though I can dig into 2005/06 and start throwing about volleys on how he turned ND into an offense so lethal that they beat most teams by more points than any of those teams' other opponents in those seasons. But in the context of 2008, I just can't find much to hang my hat on.

--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

Is it a "good" 6-6 or a "bad" 6-6. I haven't looked at the rest of the Big 10 for next year, but I imagine it isn't going to be a juggernaut. Do they win 6 games, with maybe a surprise in there, and keep the losses close? Or are they beating the 6 worst teams on the schedule, with drubbings against the better teams?

It's also going to depend what the QB situation turns out to be. I agree with everyone below, that Forcier is likely going to be the starter by the end of the season. If he shows promise, that would be a good thing. But if they limp to victories through defense/good fortune, it wouldn't bode well.

Last year was terrible for us, in that we lost games we shouldn't have or were winning but let them slip away. We got blown out by USC and looked dismal against BC. That being said, few outside observers would look at our team and say we don't have the players to be decent. Clausen with Tate/Floyd and some of the young guys on D should be enough to have a pretty good year.