Good points....
and well stated.
I'm going to make the argument...
that with the exception of tOSU, the other two are symptoms of a tougher schedule than USC gets.
USC schedules better than anyone (better than us) but those teams just keep sucking (including us) and their conference doesn't do them any favors either.
In addition, their reward each year is to play the 2nd best Big10 team if tOSU does well or the best Big10 team if tOSU sucks that year.
Texas and Florida play real bowl games and they play real conference championship games in addition to a tougher schedule to begin with. I'd have no problem with 3 losses 2 years after a NC.
Carroll's record is remarkable but the facts will show that while Carroll's been coach at USC...
tOSU has a BCS championship and 2 appearances
Texas has a title
Florida has 2 titles
USC has a title and a runner-up...but gets the edge because of their AP title.
Of note- since Carroll's been a Trojan there's been 8 BCS games
only 8 teams have participated.
You know what, if we include the year before Petey gets to USC Oklahoma probably wins.
1 title, 4 runner-ups. That's pretty consistent as well.
I've decided, Stoops wins this fight.
That secondary is insanely talented and deep
- No text -
Only significant losses
Offense
Aldridge (but should be easily replaced with our depth)
Duncan (potential starting LT)
Olsen (starting LG)
Young (starting RT)
Defense
Te'o (potential mission)
McCarthy (starting SS)
McNeil (starting CB, unless Blanton beats him out)
Walls (starting CB, but could return for a fifth)
Brown (nickel back)
Looking at this, the main questions for 2010 are at OT (can Romine play LT? who will replace Young?) and the secondary (will Walls return? who will play safety besides Hayseed?)
No one reloads as well as SC.
Sure, those team are still very, very good at it. But SC hasn't lost more than 2 games in a year since 2001.
tOSU lost 4 in 2004 and 3 in 2008.
Florida lost 4 the year between their two NCs.
Texas lost 3 games each of the two years after they won the NC.
I think tOSU reloads that easily
And I also think Florida in the future and Texas right now fit the bill too.
Shocking that the best program in California, Texas, Florida, and Ohio manage to do it when no one else can.
Oh that's right...10 automatic 4-5 stars every year. Nevermind, I think I figured it out.
They're good coaches too...but sometimes I wish ND was in Southern California.
I agree with all of that.
- No text -
The best aspect of Carroll's coaching...
is his ability to take "reloading" to a literal meaning.
Sure, he still hasn't put together a "best team of the millennium" since his last "best team of the millennium," but quite a few programs over time (even ND) have been said to be able to "just reload" and not really do it with the efficiency of SoCal in the 85-man limit era. All because he seeks to make practice harder than most of the games the team will play. Makes it so their red-shirt sophs are like tested juniors.
(Of course, he's still dealing with that "lose one you shouldn't" problem. Not that I wouldn't mind that single problem these days.)
I fully agree with the "it's time" motto for 2009. But it's time for a few reasons beyond what's on paper. In particular, it's time because Weis sort of dug himself a hole the last 2 years and needs to make good on some debt now.
--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.
No question.
That O-line is scarry good. We'll need to play our best game in 4 years to do it. Seeing what they lose at critical positions then I think we can do it and it will be our best chance since 05.
they're lucky Mays came back
and that Pinkard got his 6th year, because without those two returnees they'd really be up shit creek on defense.
Mays would have been a surefire first-rounder.
What surprised me about SC....
was their relative youth along the DL. 4 of their top 8 are sophomores. I'd say that was a byproduct of having to move guys like Butch Lewis, Alex Parsons and Derek Simmons over to OL.
I'm interested in seeing the kind of progress that Griffen and Spicer can make. Griffen looked like Tarzan but played like Jane against Oregon State. He was getting worked by Samie Stroughter on those wham blocks. He didn't start again the rest of the season. Spicer just played like and idiot - he had something like 4 PI's in the first few games, two against Oregon State.
Also, both Galippo and Luther Brown have had back problems over the last few years. That's one of the reasons why they wanted Teo so badly.
their OL is still scary as hell
- No text -
I'd guess we will have roughly 17 starters back in 2010.
Clausen
Allen
Kamara
Tate
Floyd
Rudolph
Wenger
Stewart
Romine if he beats out Duncan
Johnson
Williams
Neal
LewisMoore
Teo (maybe)
B. Smith
Filer
Blanton
H. Smith
What will we lose between '09 and '10?
I highly doubt we're there yet. I'm hoping we can get them in '10 but I suppose home field means something too...theoretically.
I agree.
Their QB is either going to be Corp, Mustain, or a true Freshman. None of those scare me too much. If we contain their ground game we can win. Of course that's easier said then done.
On Rivals....
They don't have a set number of 5 stars in a given year.
Scout gives each Top 50 player a 5 star ranking. But Scout (read, Allen Wallace) has an uber-boner for West Coast players and is to SC recruits what Lemming is to ND recruits.
Ethan Johnson was only a 4 Star?
- No text -
ND Football 2009 - "It's Time"
I expect us to take a very signficant step forward. If we don't the only reason will be coaching failure.
This team, on paper at least, is a better mix of raw talent and experience than the 2005 team.
this would be the year to catch them
They're breaking in a new quarterback on offense, and losing most of that defense. And we finally return a fairly stocked two-deep.
ND and USC - Spring Two Deeps
I used the rankings (and SC's spring depth chart) from Rivals
Ok, here the breakdowns. Returning starters are in ALL CAPS.
NOTRE DAME OFFENSE
RETURNING STARTERS: 10
UNDERCLASSMEN: 6
FIVE STARS: 5
FOUR STARS: 13
THREE STARS: 4
TOP 50: 7
TOP 100: 11
TOP 250: 17
QUARTERBACK
CLAUSEN - Jr, 5 stars, Top 50
Crist - So, 5 stars, Top 50
TAILBACK
ALLEN - Jr, 4 stars, Top 100
Hughes - Jr, 4 stars, Top 100
RECEIVER
KAMARA - Jr, 4 stars, Top 50
Parris - Sr, 3 stars
RECEIVER
FLOYD - So, 5 stars, Top 50
Walker - So, 4 stars, Top 250
RECEIVER
TATE - Jr, 4 stars, Top 250
West - Sr, 3 stars
TIGHT END
RUDOLPH - So, 5 stars, Top 50
Ragone - Jr, 4 stars, Top 100
LEFT TACKLE
Duncan - 5th, 3 stars
Romine - Jr, 4 stars, Top 100
LEFT GUARD
OLSEN - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
Nuss - Jr, 4 stars
CENTER
WENGER - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
Cave - So, 4 stars, Top 250
RIGHT GUARD
STEWART - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
Robinson - So, 4 stars, Top 50
RIGHT TACKLE
YOUNG - Sr, 5 stars, Top 50
Dever - Jr, 3 stars
SOUTHERN CAL OFFENSE
RETURNING STARTERS: 9
UNDERCLASSMEN: 0
FIVE STARS: 7
FOUR STARS: 10
THREE STARS: 4
TOP 50: 9
TOP 100: 12
TOP 250: 16
SOUTHERN CAL OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Corp - Jr, 4 stars, Top 50
Mustain - Sr, 5 stars, Top 50
TAILBACK
GABLE - Sr, 5 stars, Top 50
Johnson - Sr, 5 stars, Top 50
FULLBACK
HAVILI - Sr, 4 stars
Goodman - Sr, former walkon
RECEIVER
D. WILLIAMS - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
Ausberry - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
RECEIVER
R. Johnson - Jr, 5 stars, Top 50
Patterson - Jr, 3 stars
TIGHT END
MCCOY - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
R. Ellison - Jr, 3 stars
LEFT TACKLE
C. BROWN - 5th, 3 stars
T. Smith - So, 5 stars
LEFT GUARD
BYERS - 6th, 5 stars, Top 50
Simmons - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
CENTER
O'DOWD - Jr, 5 stars, Top 50
Reardon - Jr, 4 stars, Top 250
RIGHT GUARD
PARSONS - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
Heberer - Sr, 4 stars, Top 250
RIGHT TACKLE
B. LEWIS - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
Howell - 5th, 3 stars
NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
RETURNING STARTERS: 6
UNDERCLASSMEN: 8
FIVE STARS: 0
FOUR STARS: 12
THREE STARS: 10
TOP 50: 1
TOP 100: 4
TOP 250: 8
DEFENSIVE END
NEAL - Jr, 4 stars
Fleming - So, 4 stars, Top 100
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
WILLIAMS - Jr, 3 stars
Mullen - Sr, 3 stars
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Johnson - So, 4 stars, Top 50
Nwankwo - Jr, 3 stars
DEFENSIVE END
LewisMoore - So, 4 stars
Richardson - Sr, 3 stars
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
B. SMITH - Jr, 4 stars
Posluszny - So, 3 stars
MIDDLE LINEBACKER
T. Smith - Sr, 3 stars
McDonald - So, 4 stars, Top 250
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Filer - So, 4 stars, Top 250
S.Smith - 5th, 3 stars
CORNERBACK
MCNEAL - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
Slaughter - So, 4 stars, Top 250
STRONG SAFETY
K. McCARTHY - 5th, 3 stars
Herring - 5th, 3 stars
FREE SAFETY
H. SMITH - Jr, 4 stars, Top 250
Brown - Sr, 3 stars
CORNERBACK
Blanton - So, 4 stars
Walls - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
SOUTHERN CAL DEFENSE
RETURNING STARTERS: 3
UNDERCLASSMEN: 6
FIVE STARS: 3
FOUR STARS: 15
THREE STARS: 3
TOP 50: 9
TOP 100: 14
TOP 250: 16
DEFENSIVE END
Griffen - Jr, 5 stars, Top 50
Perry - So, 4 stars, Top 100
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
TUPOU - Jr, 4 stars
Spicer - 5th, 4 stars, Top 100
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Armstead - So, 4 stars, Top 50
Henderson - Jr, 3 stars
DEFENSIVE END
Jackson - So, 4 stars
Horton - So, 4 stars, Top 50
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
M. SMith - Jr, 4 stars, Top 250
Campbell - Jr, 4 stars, Top 250
MIDDLE LINEBACKER
Galippo - Jr, 5 stars, Top 50
L. Brown - 5th, 4 stars, Top 100
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Morgan - Sr, 4 stars, Top 100
Garratt - Sr, former walkon
CORNERBACK
S. Wright - Sr, 4 stars, Top 50
Bryant - So, 4 stars, Top 100
FREE SAFETY
K. Thomas - 5th, 4 stars, Top 100
M. Jones - Jr, 4 stars, Top 100
STRONG SAFETY
MAYS - Sr, 5 stars, Top 50
Harris - 5th, 4 stars, Top 100
CORNERBACK
PINKARD - 6th, 3 stars
Bauchum - So, 3 stars