That "Dr Saturday" article is really off

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 12:05 (6267 days ago)
edited by Jeff (BGS), Sunday, March 29, 2009, 12:18

I don't think is is worth a post, but his an analysis epitomizes the "Figures lie and liars figure" expression. I won't repost the link, because I don't want to give it any hits, but here are some of the errors (other than the Nevada/SD State error, which was apparently fixed).

Some noteables:
In his 2008 numbers, he includes Hawaii as a team without a winning record. While technically this is true, they did have a winning record not counting their game against the Irish. He makes a similar mistake in 2007, as Georgia Tech and Michigan State and UCLA were all team that finished .500 not counting their game vs the Irish.

Even given his calculations the way they are, he also fails to mention that the quality of competition improved dramatically from 2007 to 2008 when you look solely at teams with a winning record. The teams with winning records in 2007 sported a combined record of 60-32 (.652), while the 2008 teams boasted a record of 55-24 (.696). You'd have to add in Clausen's numbers against a 5-8 team in '08 to get to the same totals as "his" 07 winning opponents. The fact is that even though the overall schedule was weaker, the winning teams on the schedule were tougher opponents in 2008 than in 2007.

Finally, it is a little unfair to count Clausen's numbers in games were he didn't play much. Attributing the 2007 Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Purdue losses to Clausen is hard for me to swallow, as Clausen attempted only 6 of the 22 passes throw against GT, 20 of the 49 vs BC, and half of the passes against Purdue. I should add that Dr. Saturday does correctly omit the Navy & Southern Cal data from his analysis, however.

I linked it in the BGS NewsWire

by Pat, Monday, March 30, 2009, 08:10 (6266 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)

because I thought it was an interesting "outsider" view on Clausen. I agree that in his work to cover all of college football, he frequently misses the point, especially on things Notre Dame. But I figured some ND fans might be interested to see what non-ND fans think of Jimmy.

The stats aren't completely accurate as you note, but I do think there is a kernel of truth that Jimmy's next needed step in his evolution as starting QB is to start beating better teams. Of course, not every loss along the way has been entirely his fault.

I was gearing up for a retort to it...

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 18:43 (6267 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)

but I've reached my limit. I'd rather not give him more hits. Never get into a slap-fight with a guy with a lot of free time on his hands and all that.

--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

what's your opinion of SMQ in general?

by Jay, San Diego, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 19:07 (6267 days ago) @ domer.mq

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He's trying...

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 19:13 (6267 days ago) @ Jay

but he does have an axe to grind with ND and Weis in particular. It tends to undermine his efforts.

I do enjoy a lot of his stuff, but just as Jeff pointed out, as SMQ digs deeper into the numbers, things can get missed or tossed aside. If you're reading his work on teams other than ND, you may not as readily recognize the "damned stats" from the good stats.

Sometimes he makes me wish I'd been a liberal arts major, though. Wouldn't mind being more capable of drawing parallels between a football team's short yardage defense and classic lit.

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

I've said this to Pat before

by Jay, San Diego, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 19:17 (6267 days ago) @ domer.mq

The guy needs an editor. I think his stuff on Yahoo has been more concise and to the point; I think he may have some editorial review there. His stuff on SMQ is often dense and unreadable. He's obviously got a lot of retention power but oftentimes he just disgorges it onto the page instead of cleaning it up and making it legible.

the worst part of the new site

by Pat, Monday, March 30, 2009, 08:15 (6266 days ago) @ Jay

is that he added a few other writers including Holly, who also helps Spencer over on EDSBS. She tries just a bit too hard and really, really hates ND and Charlie. Most of the anti-ND/Charlie stuff that pops up on both sites is her work. Hinton at least claims to be one of the few bloggers that doesn't really care either way about ND.

did Holly have her own blog before?

by Jay, San Diego, Monday, March 30, 2009, 08:35 (6266 days ago) @ Pat

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I can't help but picture her as that "big boned" girl...

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Monday, March 30, 2009, 12:04 (6266 days ago) @ Jay

who always seems to hang with the group of guys every Saturday night but never seems to end up hooking up with them. She probably refers to Matt and Spencer as "her boys."

This is mean. I'm mean.

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

yeah

by Pat, Monday, March 30, 2009, 09:04 (6266 days ago) @ Jay

"snarktastic" or something like that.

she's like "celebrity blogger" Mikaela Watkins on SNL

by Jay, San Diego, Monday, March 30, 2009, 14:15 (6266 days ago) @ Pat

"Bitch...PLEEAZEEE..."

Didn't she also do some sports blog with all female writers?

by Samari, Bahston, Monday, March 30, 2009, 11:46 (6266 days ago) @ Pat

the name escapes me at the moment.

Yeah, but I can't remember that one either.

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Monday, March 30, 2009, 12:04 (6266 days ago) @ Samari

- No text -

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

"Ladies ..."

by Samari, Bahston, Tuesday, March 31, 2009, 13:33 (6265 days ago) @ domer.mq

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Yeah. I'd agree.

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 19:21 (6267 days ago) @ Jay

He seems to scoff at bullet points, bold text, and the use of indentation at times as well. Probably his desire to "tell a story" that takes over. I will give him kudos, however, for putting in real effort and at times (more back in the SMQ days than the Dr. Sat days) being quite creative with the angles he uses to look at a story.

--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

where can I find it?

by Spesh ⌂ @, Los Angeles, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 13:30 (6267 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)

I have no idea what you're talking about, and I would like to read it.

I think this is it

by Jay, San Diego, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 13:48 (6267 days ago) @ Spesh
edited by Jay, Sunday, March 29, 2009, 13:53

This is from Hinton's blog on Yahoo ("Dr. Saturday")

No, really, Jimmy Clausen's job is safe (but the heat is still on)

By Matt Hinton

Unless he's injured -- and I imagine he walks around with both personal body guards and a custom foam bodysuit as preventative measures -- the odds of Jimmy Clausen not starting Notre Dame's season opener against Nevada are somewhere around zero. Clausen was all but anointed the moment he signed on with Charlie Weis, he's entrenched two seasons in and he's coming off the best effort of his career, having finally shown the promise in the bowl win over Hawaii that made him the most hyped quarterback recruit in the country two years ago.

But, just for the sake of argument, as long as we're navigating the dire straits of March, Weis would like to remind the other five-star slinger on his roster, sophomore-to-be Dayne Crist, that the door remains open:

Crist is right with Irish coach Charlie Weis' thoughts as the team moves through its first week of spring drills: Weis wants Crist to push starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen -- even if Clausen is fairly entrenched at the spot -- and Crist intends to do just that.
[...]
"It's an obstacle. Jimmy has paid his dues and he's done great. But I can't let that stop me from being who I am ... Whether it be tomorrow or in a week or a year, I'm not going to stop until I get what I want. And what I want is being out on the field and winning games for Notre Dame."

Weis personally backs up the "competition" angle, which is very big of him, but I think the language here is appropriate: Crist pushing Clausen is still mainly about Clausen's progress into becoming the kind of quarterback he was recruited to be.

On that front, Year Three should be the "Leap Year," when substance replaces potential, which is presumably what Weis and Clausen (and Crist, in his way) are striving for. Taken as a whole, Clausen's numbers show him right on schedule to take that next step up:

[image]

That's a strong improvement across the board, with the notable exception of interceptions, but the accompanying leap in the average gain and especially in touchdowns still led to a fairly dramatic improvement in the most important categories: efficiency rating, scoring and, of course, winning. This is exactly the schedule you'd expect for a young passer growing into his role.

Look a little deeper, though, and suddenly that rate of progress nearly disappears when you cut away the chaffe:

[image]

The improvement is still there, but nowhere does it even remotely match the huge strides Clausen made against inferior defenses (of which he saw twice as many in '08 as in '07); in most respects, especially when it comes to touchdowns and overall efficiency -- and, yes, to his offense's and his team's overall success -- sophomore Clausen wasn't discernibly better than freshman Clausen against the best teams on the schedule.

This would be the next logical step in Jimmy's career trajectory: Competence against competent defenses. If Weis can't get that at this point in the story -- and assuming he's still around to make decisions, which isn't a very likely combination -- then Crist might be worth a serious look. But not until then.

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