True or False

If we start out 1-1, we're 90+% likely in the playoffs.

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I'm a bad take machine!

Error bars for weird scores in any direction, also don't overlook either opponents ability to turn an early Signature Win into dust by November

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I'm a bad take machine!

Depending on where the weaknesses are on the team, it changes the %s on all the other games, and you have to think you have to run the table to be in the discussion with 1-loss. 2-losses still very likely but you're going to need help from the schedule.

1-1 I'd feel fine saying it's still 45-55% likely, but steadily improving if they get through Arkansas and other early games

2-0 I'm feeling a lot better that they can handle the rest of the schedule but you still think you're at 70-80% until at least Halloween

I imagine whatever would cause us to drop one to Miami or Texas A&M would also entertain us dropping 2 more games over the course of the season. These are good teams but much closer to 2024 Indiana than 2024 Georgia

is "first year QB". As we get up the learning curve we should be much better in November than in September.

It's a shame our schedule is so front-loaded. This is the kind of team that would benefit from an easy opener.

I think they tend to come onto the scene well and have a handful of starts where they really seem to grow quickly. Generally, it's the period in which the plan of the OC to spoon feed the player has not yet been figured out fully and the blind spot's in the QBs game are not readily apparent.

Then, there's a trough from somewhere between starts 8-10 to start 12-16. The book on how to defend the kid becomes clear much more rapidly than the player is able to grow through his deficiencies.

In short, I think Carr or Minchey (barring meltdown) would be more likely to hurt us in the playoffs than they would be to cost us one of these early games.

Incidentally this principle should help us against Reed from A&M in Week 3

someone like Carr, who has been with the team since December 2023 when, I think, he participated in Sun Bowl preparations. And all of spring last year, last season (with the injury limiting him from practice) and then the playoff run, then this spring and the upcoming August. If he wins the job, he will be a first time starter who will have had a lot of practice reps. So he will have seen a lot, but no other team will have seen a lot of him.

and create a bigger "menu" of things Denbrock can build around him in the early going. Still, there are a bunch of operational things that don't overtly cost the team but add up to disadvantage once you get figured out.

Here's an example on his nice fadeaway deep ball early in the spring game:

https://bluegraysky.com/forum/index.php?id=557885

While it looked like Carr made a great throw on the RPO (and, in fairness, he did) you could look at this as a DC and realize he doesn't see his give cues well, which means you can cheat against the RPO look, bait him into stuff, etc.

Going into A&M last year, all the talk was "Elko will know a lot about Leonard and be able to shut him down"

Lost in all that, I thought, was two things:

1) Leonard will be playing in a different offense with an experienced coordinator with a track record of exploiting mobile QBs to the fullest. So the Leonard we saw at Duke was likely to be a little different playing for us.

2) You know the flip side of that argument? Know who knows Elko's defense better than anybody? Riley Leonard.

Enough of that turned out to be true to win the game.

Carr, I think, has one huge advantage in your theory: he's a coaching pedigree kid. I would assume from background, and everything I've read tends to confirm this, that he has a knowledge of football uncommon for his age because of that. It won't be as good as Leonard had actually playing against that D in practice for years. But it will be a lot better than your typical first time QB starter.

And this is the main reason that I think Minchey, while underappreciated by the national media, will end up not winning the job. Carr's consistency and reading defenses and progressing through reads is his trump card, even though Minchey may be a better runner and might have better arm strength and has a year on Carr.

But it's also the reason I don't think Miami is going to have much of a chance, particularly if Beck is not 100% (as was rumored due to elbow injury). A&M, we'll see. Glad that one's at home, and I think our defense will be good enough to get after A&M and limit their QB run game.

Recall he stayed for his senior year to play as opposed to “reclassifying” and coming to ND earlier. And the “football family” stuff counts for something. I don’t think it’s an accident that all the beats have been swooning over the guy for awhile now—it’s not just what they have seen in limited opportunities—basically two spring games—but that kind of positive attitude typically also emanates from things they are hearing from the coaches. I don’t want to get too excited but it sure seems like Carr could be a really good player unlike anyone we have had in awhile.

had a really good natural command of the huddle and the operation. I think there's a lot to what you guys are saying about the football pedigree. He'll know what to focus on. We are also kind of past the era, though, of a new starter coming in and being awesome. Defenses have gotten too good at disguising coverages

I think we'll get to the playoffs, and probably win a game.

Everything beyond that, I expect our first year QB might catch up with us. But it's a long season. A year's experience will help at least, though I agree it might not be enough.

but then again, see: N. Illinois 2024.

are we 1000% confident that Freeman has dropped the bad habit he exhibited in the first 3 years of just delivering an absolute clunker of a performance at some point in the season?

Year 1: Marshall, Stanford losses.
Year 2: Clemson was a real stinker, Louisville less objectionable but not super competitive.
Year 3: Welp.

The good news is Freeman is a young first-timer, so we have more reason to think he has more room to grow and improve as a coach than some crusty old-timer. And Freeman clearly built the NIU loss into a foundational part of last year's narrative, as opposed to trying to shove it into a dusty shoebox and forgetting about it. So reason to believe he's thought long and hard about how that happened, making it less likely to happen again.

But, we still need to see it. And this year's schedule is arguably ripe for such a performance, since it's loaded with teams that aren't superb, but are certainly capable of pulling upsets.

and retributive motivation needed for the 2024 championship run, then maybe it's (still) an open question as to whether MF can take a front running, favorite team just as far.

we were +1.3 ypp and it was at their place. We just had an awful showing from a few key guys (Hartman, Tyree dropping a punt off his facemask, DJ Brown). Clemson was pretty short handed as I recall but it was up there as a Calamity Game rather than weapons grade garbage like losing to Marshall, Stanford or NIU

Never say never, I guess, but Freeman by all accounts really rethought his process after Northern Illinois. They now have structure in place to address the potential for upsets by lesser teams.

Plus, culturally, I just think TGS got very real for the team in 2024 and that it will now carry through the program.

There may come a day after ND finally brings home a championship or two where the team's urgency declines and he'll have to learn new lessons. Not this year though.

I'm not all that sure there's one.

10-2 I think will get ND in with their schedule this year.

The teams that didn't make it at 10-2 last year:
Miami
BYU
Memphis

ND's schedule and record would be better than any of those three.

Maybe still better than .500 chance?

Makes sense, since we either make it or we don't.

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I'm a bad take machine!

90% assumes we run the table and finish 11-1, and that's just very hard to guarantee. As others mentioned, even with 2 losses we'd have a shot, but you never know how other teams' seasons are going to play out.

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The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope

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At night, the ice weasels come.

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The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope

Gives us very little margin for error with a new QB who may be prone to serving up some tasty turnovers. I would love to be 2-0 and I think we will be.

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Ward to Beck is almost certainly a drop-off and they're replacing 2 OL, their top 5 pass catchers, and their starting running back. They gave up 30+ points in 5/8 ACC games last year but replaced their DC.

A major issue is that they continue to be coached by Mario Cristobal.

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I thought he had hurt his elbow in the spring and was not 100% going to be available for Miami.

Too many 12-ounce curls with the Miami WBB team, no doubt.

I haven't seen anything about a reinjury, but perhaps that's off the radar?

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And sort of wondering what the recovery time is going to be.

Not just physically - playbook. Riley was clearly behind on playbook/timing after missing spring ball. Beck may have the same issue.

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the Polo Grounds - 20250422

Depends on scores

fair, let's assume both scores within 10 points

I think 1-1 makes priors very interesting rest of season

False

Not if "whatever caused the loss"

I have a theory about first year QBs, actually

Maybe bake into the theory

I think it certainly will help

Reminds me a bit of Riley Leonard

Carr has played a lot of football

I was at the spring game two years ago and Carr

Playoffs are another story.

you would think

So on that point,

if the N. Illinois loss produced the rocket fuel

the Clemson game was more maddening than a classic stinker

I'm pretty confident on this, actually.

True, because there aren't two more losses on the schedule

90% is pretty high

at 1-1 you're saying a 50% chance to make the playoffs?

just a random guess

I'd give it 32.33

Repeating, of course

At least we have chicken

False.

FYI, right now we are 3.5 favorites over Miami

they lost a ton

Is Beck healthy?

he missed most of spring with his recovery

No, I'm just recalling that injury

he's worse off than Leonard imo