gunning for the playoffs - the Polo Grounds

Chatting with various ND friends over the last week it seems like the consensus opinion on playoff hopes is to avoid at all costs and go for a NY6 game.

Most years with a good-not-great team I'd be on board but I think this season is stacking up differently.

IG makes the point below about how nice it would be to have last year's team this year, and KGB opines that this is a perfect year for a 12-team playoff.

If you agree with those perspectives (and I do) and you think there's only 1 dominant squad and then a group of about 8-10 interchangeables, then why not abandon the "settle for NY6" mentality and go for a playoff spot instead? Maybe we get matched with UGA but maybe not. Maybe we get one of those other matchups instead, and finally win a playoff game.

On a related note, this is why I feel the Navy game was a letdown. If we are gunning for the playoffs -- and I believe we should be -- then this should have been Style Points time. I was expecting (hoping) for a 50-spot and we couldn't get it done.

against a shitty Navy team. We're getting in based on sheer attrition if the chaos above us continues down the stretch. I also think that more important than style points against bad teams is for a few of the opponents we've already beaten to keep winning to give us multiple wins against ranked teams. Lack of quality wins is what's holding us back more than anything.

Just win all the games. If you get in its a lucky break and make the most of it.

If we're on the bubble come selection time we need to have big wins down the stretch. UVA just gave up 66 to BYU, Ga Tech gave up 52 to Pitt and 48 to UVA, Stanford gave up 52 to Utah. If we fart around in these games we're not putting ourselves in the best position to be picked.

In general though I think this is more about ND fan mentality than playoff reality. I'm mostly questioning why almost everyone I know is preferring a NY6 bid, when we really should be reaching for more.

We know well the many flaws of this team and we know that better Kelly teams have suffered epic beatings at the hands of opponents that have come to be regarded as among the most dominant of this era. We're talking about three different occasions here. I think what most of this boils down to is a well-justified fear of Georgia. They're likely to finish No. 1 and we're unlikely to rise above No. 4 if we get in at all. If you could somehow guarantee position No. 3, the tenor of the conversation might be different.

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If we make it, it's because there are only four 0 or 1 loss teams not named UTSA.

Which is very possible.

Because of course you are correct and making the playoff is better. What a cool recruiting pitch to say "Look, we've been in the playoff three of the last four years and we're so so close and we just need you and your two most talented friends to join up and get us over the hump." I'm sure the people saying "ND getting in and losing by a lot would be bad for future prospects!" were also saying that last year and if the Irish were to get in again that would clearly not be the case.

I actually don't think ND needs much in the way of style points. They have to look good, but nothing too fancy. The path is pretty clear:

* UGA takes care of Bama in semi-comfortable fashion. It would also depend if Bama looks like Bama against Arkansas and Bo Nix or shitty like they have against questionable Florida and LSU teams.
* Cincy loses a game. (Committee will drop them like a rock and say "Well the Irish team that played them hadn't figured out their offense yet but we're just so impressed with how ND has played since the bye..." blah blah blah)
* Oregon loses one more.

You also still have the possibility of two-loss champs in the B12 or B10 to open it up further. Please win out and make this fun, Irish.

It is more fun as a fan to be part of those graphics and commercials and pageantry than it is to be playing on a Wednesday night game called by Joe Tessitpire with half the top players opted out

We’ve made the playoffs 3 of the past 4 yrs, almost no one can say that.
And you [Mr 5 star] are one of the only 2 missing pieces to take us to the title game victory.
The QB from Detroit and Sonny Styles might well buy this because it’s pretty darn accurate. And who wouldn’t think that maybe it’s better to be the final and high profile piece in the march to the top for college football’s biggest national brand vs being just another cog in the annual Bama or OSU wheel.
3 out of 4 would be a heck of a pitch.

of our offensive gameplan was to protect our incredibly depleted defense. Gotta balance style points against trying to protect your remaining "healthy" bodies to give you a chance to win the last three.

In addition to White's knee, I noticed that Cross is playing with a shoulder harness on one side and then one of those big full-arm braces on the other side.

Of this season is that our most likely bowl destination is shaping up to be the Peach Bowl, which would be against the ACC champ. Which wouldn't exactly provide much in the way of interest/buzz, or a springboard for next year.

Now if Cincy can manage to get into the playoffs, our bowl outlook looks more attractive.

But if that team is Wake or Pitt and Hamilton doesn't come back, those offenses could both make for a very long day. We'd have to win a shootout for sure.

than the customary showdowns with an NFL-laden team (usually OSU) that somehow didn't make the playoff.

Seems like the rules in place protect us from that type of outcome this year. Like a two-loss Bama squad or something like that.

I've probably beaten this particular horse here before, and maybe it's just me, but I think making the playoffs is a bigger deal than winning a glorified exhibition game for also-rans. The postseason offers a grand total of three consequential games--why not hope for one of those instead?

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I'm glad there are others in this foxhole. I was at a ND gamewatch party this weekend and everyone was acting like it was some other season, where there were 3-4 top dogs and we better avoid those guys so as not to embarrass ourselves.

No matter what anyone says, if we beat Wake Forest in the vaunted Peach Bowl nobody in the media writ large is going to be singing ND's praises or talking about the major bowl monkey that's been lifted off ND's back.

I think most people default to this viewpoint not simply because of ND's history (which we know there's a lot) but I think it's a hopeful preference for momentum. End on a good and winnable note and the optimism for 2022 is high. Top 5? With the way recruiting is going, and the number of young kids seeing the field, I could see the bowl game providing a springboard effect. But like you, I'd rather just roll the dice and see where we can go in the CFP.

will happen. Maybe we end up in the playoff (3 out of 4 years) and can start shouting that from the rooftops. Maybe we miss it and end up with (God willing) a winnable bowl game. Win that and we are on the climb entering the offseason and positioned to make a run.

I mean, all of this is well and good until one considers defending the OSU offense in the Horseshoe without Kyle Hamilton. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

I'm fascinated to see how Dabo handles this offseason if the Tigers end up with four or more losses.

any adversity in quite a while.

Assuming the choice is a playoff beat down or a NY6 win, I see some value in getting another monkey off our backs and avoiding the same tired narratives.

That said, I think this team could actually beat Georgia or give them a good game. Not the likely outcome, but I could see it.

The team that is allowing 6.5 points per game?

I actually do think our defense (with Hamilton) could keep the score down. Not sure how we'd move the ball, though.

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I think they've handed almost every team they've played their worst loss of the season, and in some cases by a lot. They just strangle teams to death. I see no reason to think that we, or almost any team, could sustain drives against them. Sure, our offensive line has improved, but let's not forget where it was only a few weeks ago.

I just think that the specific wins (Clemson, Florida) that people were hanging their hat on to illustrate Georgia's dominance look a lot less fearsome now. No denying that they have looked impressive on a game-in, game-out basis.

I am interested to see how they fare against Alabama, because that has been such a choke-job moment for them in years past. Any thought of the Tide just rolling over for these dudes based on common-opponent claptrap strikes me as dubious, and the idea of Alabama being a Vegas underdog in that game sounds...inviting.

I mean...cripes

"Want to know why Georgia is shutting down opponents at a historic rate? Reverse-engineer the Bulldogs’ defense to its recruiting rankings. The top 16 tacklers include seven five-star prospects, six four-star prospects, two three-star prospects and a walk-on. The median recruiting ranking from this group is between four-star Channing Tindall (No. 31 overall in his class) and four-star Lewis Cine (No. 45 overall)."

https://theathletic.com/2926673/2021/11/01/notre-dame-final-thoughts-an-offense-built-t...

could score.

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Georgia Tech might be the best offense they face up until the conf champ game. So much for the SEC.

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Any monkey/albatross hanging on any limb is bothering fans and fans alone. Making the playoff every year regardless of playoff result is a million times more valuable to any current or future ND coach and player than a NY6 win so we can all feel warm and fuzzy for 45 minutes.

is more rooted in nostalgia, rather than their actual value, which the playoff has rendered negligible.

It's not a perfect analogy, but for my money, the NY6 are kind of like, say, the NIT or the Europa League--if you wind up playing there, it's cooler to win than lose, but it'd be a lot cooler to play in the tournament that actually matters.

There are portions of our fanbase that would turn up their noses at a Peach Bowl win over Wake. "Not a 'major bowl'!! Not a 'Tier 1' opponent!"

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[image]

That’s the marker in college football.
Recruiting has improved significantly from being in the playoffs 2 of 3 yrs.
Ok fine, we lost to Alabama like everyone else. Recruits seem to like us being there and the negativity comes only from people who hate ND to begin with or the nattering nabobs of ND football negativity.
You can’t win if you don’t play. So let’s go play.
We have nothing to lose. We will be heavy underdogs vs anyone but Cincy or Oregon.
And other than UGA, we might be able to beat anyone else on a great day

What's so "official" about regular season games vis-à-vis bowl games? Is everything pointless if you're not playing for a championship?

Obviously, football games have no intrinsic importance and are only as valuable as we choose to rate them, so your mileage may vary and all that. And, to be fair, "exhibition game" probably overstates the case, since records and stats still count. (I do find the glut of mediocre bowl games between mediocre teams somewhat distasteful, in that their raison d'etre is corporate sponsorship and television programming, but that's probably a different conversation.)

That said, the notion of "Major Bowl Games" is a bit silly in the playoff era and I think the distinction between major and small-time is pretty arbitrary, given that they all equally affect the national championship. Personally, I don't care too much how shiny a consolation prize is if we have a legit shot at competing for the real thing.

FWIW, I think a NY6 Bowl win would be a very nice end to the season, but given the choice, I'd rather take my chances in the playoffs, even if it means getting smoked again.

They are winners. They are finding ways to win and beating everyone they should beat. That alone is a reason to like this team.

I feel like this team can beat 100% of the teams ranked >10, 50% of the teams ranked 3-10, and 0% of the teams ranked 1-2. I don't see a scenario where things fall into place and this team pulls off an upset.

If that is true, I'd rather take my chances with a NY6 opponent. I just feel like the playoffs would result in a guaranteed loss against Georgia or Alabama (maybe Ohio State if they are better now). If we could finagle a first round match-up against someone else, I'd take my chances in the playoffs.

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At night, the ice weasels come.

https://twitter.com/BrianPolian/status/1457392562688471042?s=20

This clip is so illustrative of everything I love about rooting for ND football. I'm sure stuff like this happens at other schools, but watching the sideline be so engaged in a game that's (basically) over that they're going nuts when a walk-on makes a tackle on kickoff coverage is so, so awesome. Just look who's about as excited as anyone on the sideline - #23.

Brian Polian has gotten some grief over the years about his coaching prowess but I think he's been extremely valuable to the Kelly Regime for many reasons. Primarily because he really "gets" ND and is great at helping instill the culture that has become the heartbeat of the program.

I don't think we're getting in on eye test. We'll get in if we win out and get some help. Here's who we're competing with:

-Georgia: Not getting in over them unless they get upset by someone other than Bama.

-Alabama: I HOPE that they'd be out at 11-2, but I don't want to be in a position where there's a head-to-head choice between us and them.

-Oregon: We just need them to lose one more. @Utah or the Pac-12 title game are the most likely.

-Oklahoma: Probably needs to lose twice to end up behind us. Fortunately, they play three tough teams (@Baylor, vs Iowa State, @Oklahoma State), and then they have to play one of those teams again in the Big XII title game.

-Michigan/Michigan State/Ohio State: If more than one finishes with one loss, we're probably out. Purdue winning on Saturday would eliminate Ohio State and boost us. Can they pull it out?

-Oklahoma State: Can probably jump us if they win out.

-Cincy: We won't jump them. But one loss and they're out.

If the selection comes down to us vs a shaky UC, or vs other 1-loss teams, or even vs 2-loss Alabama, I think we need to show we're playing our best ball right now. I think the committee does pretty good due diligence (and they are historically kind to us, I believe). If Cincinnati nearly blows it against SMU (a very real possibility) and we're hanging 40-50 on our remaining sched it's entirely possible the committee would jump us up.

Mostly because I think the idea of ND hosting a first-round playoff game in the dead of winter most years is incredibly awesome.

*I know that they were already wavering on the 1st round games being on campuses, AND I know the entire plan is probably dead with the Big12 falling apart. But STILL. It would have been awesome for this season to end with us ranked like 5th and hosting Okie State or Ole Miss or something.

But I'd only be there if someone lets me into their luxury box. :-)

I don't disagree with your premise. I just think nobody would actually award style points for beating down Navy. As I've always said, there's no upside to playing Navy.

I think ND should try to get into the playoffs every year. I think at this point, another entrance into the playoffs only has up-side. We might get torched, but once again Brian Kelly took the Irish to the playoffs. That's a good theme. That'll help recruiting, I think, more than a NY6 bowl where this year's squad could well lose and lose badly.

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

You can have style points versus Navy - look at 2012. In the midst of a 50-10 victory, Stephon Tuitt took a fumble 75 yards the opposite direction on a play where he looked like an 8th grader playing against 2nd graders. We let Robby Toma score on a standard running play. Those are style points.

Having said that, I'm not sure the style points would have done much for us this week. On Tuesday, when the committee announces that we are either ahead of or behind Michigan State (I suspect behind), I don't think an additional two touchdowns versus Navy would have made any difference.

Absolutely fucking absurd. And I don't say that lightly. We have got to strive to play the best to continue our quest to be the best, and we have no chance to win the NC if we're not in the CFP. College football games have so many seemingly whimsical factors and we see it in game results every week. Hell, look at our own Survivor Pool. Game/scheme preparedness, player emotion, health, and mindset, weather, what the players ate and how much sleep they got the night before are all variables that can affect the outcome of any given game. We've got to get to the game to have any chance at winning it all.

I don't think we can make the playoffs - Cincy would almost have to lose twice, right?

But I'm not sure we can duck our annual decapitation by a monster team by missing the playoffs. There's a monster at the end of this book no matter what.

contracts, the most likely outcome is the Peach Bowl vs. the ACC champ.

If Cincy sneaks into the playoff (or, I suppose, if they collapse), we could go to the Fiesta Bowl as an at-large, and I don't know who the opponent would be.

If we lose another game, it's the TPG ..... er, Holiday Bowl.

The at-large selections I am seeing most frequently after ND are aTm and Michigan.

But who knows on Michigan, the B1G is such trash they could run the table but only lose to tOSU (again!) or find 2-3 more losses. But such is true for every B1G team sans Ohio St.

Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan are all playing well enough to beat them.

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PetCo is over 17 years old. How the hell did that happen?

If Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC title game, Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title game, and Utah beats Oregon one of the two times they play, ND has a really good chance of getting into the playoff at 11-1.

All non-Georgia SEC teams would have at least 2 losses.

The ACC champion will be a weak Wake team or a multi-loss team.

The Pac-12 champion would have at least 2 losses.

All Big Ten teams would have at least 2 losses, and the Big Ten champion would have lost to ND by a four touchdowns.

That leaves just the SEC champion, the Big 12 Champion, and Cincinnati ahead of ND.

(Of course, that would put us on a collision course with Georgia.)

Throw in a loss by Cincinnati (they still play @ 6-3 USF, vs 7-2 SMU, @ 5-4 East Carolina, and likely vs 11-1 Houston in the AAC championship) and I think ND might get in over Cincinnati despite the head-to-head loss.

There is also lots of room for chaos in the Big XII, as Oklahoma still has to play the next three best teams in the conference, two on the road, and one of them twice.

Of course, ND is only a 5.5 point favorite over UVa. Is their QB back from the dead?

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At night, the ice weasels come.

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He said "we'll know at kickoff."

Hell, the committee has already determined that UC will not be in barring some crazy chaos. Not sure we totally need Cincy to lose to jump them (although this might be a stretch). I think the biggest evidence that the committee doesn't care about these match ups already comes from Ohio St. and Oregon. Granted the Ducks had to lose, but the Committee's penchant for ranking Oregon behind Ohio St. probably doesn't bode well for the Bearcats vis-a-vis Notre Dame's chances.

and several other head-to-head winners just ahead of teams that may actually have been better than them on aggregate resume as of last week (Wisconsin over Iowa, Mississippi State over NC State, Okie State over Baylor).

Now, given the way the Committee has treated Cincy, I think we could jump a one-loss Cincy. But we won't jump unbeaten Cincy.

The other spot in the Sugar Bowl will be the best non-playoff Big XII team, so we won't end up there.

It's just an ego-centric position to take (and, to be clear, it isn't mine).

I think it goes: "I'm a fan. I like watching ND win. ND has a far better chance of winning a NY6 bowl than a playoff game. (Probably add: A NY6 bowl still carries some weight, at least moreso than any other non-playoff game.) Ergo, I'd rather ND play a NY6 bowl."

It ignores a great deal of other factors, including the benefit to the team/recruiting of consistently being one of the top 4 teams when the playoffs start. It might also be easier to hope for this year since we weren't expecting to contend this year and we have almost no chance of making the playoff even if we win out, unless there's at least 1 more week of pure chaos (that doesn't include us), and maybe two.

However, it all strikes me as pretty meaningless b/c obviously BK is doing whatever he thinks will get us to the playoff. He knows better than anyone that the one thing that's keeping him out of the "best ND coaches of all time" discussion is a title and the only way to get one is to make the playoff. I'm sure he also knows that this is probably the weakest field he'll see in his remaining years (though also not the strongest ND team). So fans can hope for or "settle for" whatever they want, but ND is going to try to win all its games and hope for chaos so it can make the playoff.

All of which is to say, Kelly would love to win every game by 50. But he'd much rather win each of the last 3 games, than beat Navy by 50 and risk more injuries/depleted health. Given that we might finish the year with 8 "healthy" players and 3 student managers starting on defense, I say let him do whatever he thinks he needs to do to win. Style quickly becomes irrelevant if we don't win out.

only what, 9 or 10 teams(?), to have ever been to the play-offs. And if we go this year we would be in the top 5(?) teams in the number of appearances?

Just agreeing with everyone in here. I hope we get in.

Bama and Clemson each have 6 appearances (out of 7 playoffs).

Oklahoma and Ohio St. have 4.

ND has 2.

Oregon, FSU, Michigan St., Washington, Georgia, and LSU each have 1.

Georgia, obviously, will go again. Clemson, Washington, FSU, and LSU will not. The rest is up in the air.

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The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope

won the Championship game by a greater margin than they beat us.

Did it mean a damn thing in terms of our history or trajectory? Absolutely not.
Was it nice not to have an annual note in every bowl article about our bowl win drought? Absolutely.

In that same spirit, I'd like to stop the incessant retelling of the count (in the high 40s IIRC) of programs that have won a major bowl since January 1, 1994. Of course, that means that we'd have to not just make a NY6 game, but, y'know, win.

and I was there to see it.

Were all drops. He was robotic that evening.

I really wonder what would have happened if we lost that game, especially on the heels of the Syracuse debacle.

[youtube]lRgGpMhNb4E[/youtube]

But they could have been caught!

I think everyone remembers the seemingly annual tradition of ND staggering to signing day, trying to hold a class together. Take the threat of "Enervating Blowout Kills Recruiting Class" off the table and I think the calculus changes

Still at this point of growth/development I would prefer ND play a final game that it can positively grow off.

I take all the points about the weak teams and the randomness of college football made below. But as a myopic ND fan the most notable thing about this year's team is that it is not as good as last years and a few others Kelly has fielded.

All I read about the linebackers is that they lack explosivity and are almost too hurt to play. We're down to Kevin Austin and a couple freshmen at receiver. Our OL is as weak as it's been since before Zack Martin. Our quarterback is streaky at best and our secondary lost its once a generation safety and is the same perpetual liability.

I've watched a fluky 12-0 team get blown out by Bama, and I did not like it. I've seen us go from competitive to getting run off the field with a Julian Love injury. Everything about this year's team tells me that that's who we are again. Last year, we had a lot of talent and had to feel good about a respectable 17 point loss.

All that in context, 95% of college football would love to have Notre Dame's weaknesses, but we're talking about competing with the 1%. Looking only at us and not who else is out there, I can't in good conscience argue we deserve a precious playoff spot, but hey maybe everyone is not that good.

But I keep hearing about trying to avoid the schadenfreude that is the College Football Playoff. Of course everybody takes their knocks on ND and I guess until we break through, it's not going to end.

But each of those successive games you note from 2012 to 2018 to 2020, each one was better than the last. I walked out of Jerry World wondering if the game would have been different if not for Julian Love's injury and one of the most inexplicable fumble overturns I've ever seen. Fast forward to 2020 and Notre Dame gave Bama their most competitive game of the season (2nd in margin of victory and fewest points scored). That includes the vaunted Ohio St. I just don't understand why everyone seems to think that Alabama must have taken their foot off the gas, or conveniently forgets that OSU got boat raced in way more spectacular fashion.

We are going to need the stars to align in order to bring this mission to fruition. But it's really not that different from Holtz's time either. We were regularly in the conversation for the top 5 in the 80s/early 90s. But without a missed fumble call, Lou might not have ever got his MNC. And he got to face WVU to cap it off. How much different is the narrative if ND faced Kansas St. in 2012?

I know it's frustrating to have your tail in between your legs leaving the stadiums. But I'm glad we're in that position to do so. I have a buddy out here who was regularly spouting off how overrated ND was and how much better Michigan was than ND (pre MSU). My retort was simply, "you know, this is a down year for ND football and we lost to the #2 ranked team in the nation, in a game that was less than one score late in the 4th quarter. And I don't have high hopes for this team. Whereas you are thumping your chest for the Wolverine's 2nd 7-0 start since 2016 (and they lost 3 of their last 4 that season). Come find me when they do anything."

It's so crazy to me that we are so ho-hum with a program that has a good chance to finish in the top 5. Sure, it hasn't been dominant but I certainly prefer this to the alternative.

I just think our opportunity to do so this year is incredibly slim so I'm not going to waste any outrage on the CFP committee.

Who's our best win? Wisconsin, who also got brained by Michigan the week after we beat them? After that it's... Purdue I guess? This is not the resume that gets you in above other 1-loss teams, regardless of the style points.

We are just not a top 4 quality team this year. We're not good enough on offense and we've had a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. We are a 6-12 quality team that has an outside chance at the top 4 because of a weird season.

As ND fans we get to be a bit myopic. And this team doesn't feel right to us based on past teams we've seen. But that opinion is also void of any context. Who in college football has a great resume? Wins against Purdue and Wisconsin is more than what Michigan St. can say. Who is Alabama's signature win? Ole Miss?

There's a lot that's fluid this season. And for us who watch ND closely it's easy to dismiss us simply because we haven't passed our own eye test. But man is there a lot of pretenders out there. Hell, I'll add Cincy to that conversation. Yeah they beat us straight up in our house, but dam if I wouldn't like another shot at them.

Are we a Top 4 quality team? In year’s past probably not. This year? Possibly. We sit at 7. I am gonna just sit and watch these next 3-4wks. If ND wins out Possibly probably becomes Probably. There is still carnage to come. Patience. Then we dream we get to 3 play Bama. Exorcise some demons and then beats Georgia 6-3 for the NC. Choo Choo!

Cincy is one of the 5 straight opponents who faced us after their bye week - that's every one of our biggest games: Wisconsin, Cincy, Va Tech, USC, UNC.

Again, it doesn't excuse the loss to Cincy. But if both teams had 2-3 weeks off to prepare, I'd like our chances in a rematch.

I also think we'd get more style-point victories if we didn't have this problem. Still a price worth paying for independence, in my opinion, but not something to entirely ignore when evaluating how good ND was against certain teams in hindsight.

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OSU - Wins are a cavalcade of embarrassment outside of decent-but-nothing-special PSU. Played like 2 fucking games away from the Horseshoe this season. Lost a game at home to a team playing without its best three starters on D, including the likely #1 draft pick.

MSU - Came from 3 TDs down to slip past Michigan. That's it. Literally. They beat Miami-Florida by 3 TDs, if being in a coma since 2003 floats yr boat. Lost by two scores to a Purdue team that ND beat by two scores.

Michigan - What I said above about MSU but they actually lost the game. Tah-dah. Great fuckin' resume.

(Seriously, how many times can the same teams play the exact same smattering of pathetic soupcans (Maryland, Rutgers, IU) and somehow all simultaneously become NC contenders? Am I taking goddamn crazy pills here?)

Oklahoma - Beat the worst five teams in the Big XII by a TD or less. Also Tulane. Oh, and Nebraska. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray once went to school here.

I could go on. I have no expectations other than hoping to finish 11-1, but I will not apologize to anyone if that conclusion results in ND backing into another playoff appearance. And any outsiders who don't like it can eat all of the shit.

and in this one I am more on 200% agreement.

If you look at the games played, as you laid out, you see that not many teams are playing at a playoff caliber level as measured in years past. ND is no different, so if playoffs it is, lets go for it, not going to cry one bit about that. Also not going to sleep in watching the playoff pairings until ND is at 11-1 and some more madness has taken place.

The people that don't take a couple of mins of effort to go beyond the boxscore (hello committee), and you can't say they do if you see the Rutgers, Maryland etc in the records of those top teams, love to tear us apart but also love to take us in because of the money we bring into the coffers. Perverse system no matter what.

And with the exception of UGa, would a NY6 opponent be much easier than who we might face in the playoff?

I was getting ready to post something about only wanting to make the playoffs if Buchner emerged as a starter. I worry that elite defenses will destroy a Coan-led offense.

But then I looked at some raw defensive rankings. ND's offense did pretty well against some pretty damn good defenses. I had no idea that Wisconsin and Cincinnati both have elite defenses (top-5 in most categories) and Purdue and Va Tech aren't that far behind.

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At night, the ice weasels come.

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The top-4 are easy:
1. Georgia - duh
2. Alabama - they haven't changed their name
3. Oregon - easy slide up to take Michigan State's spot
4. Ohio State - close win over Nebraska is not enough for leap frogging

What I'm most curious about is the next six. They should be something like:
5. Cincinnati
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State

But, I could see the committee not wanting to get Cincinnati so close to the Top 4, especially on the backs of a close home win over a 3-5 team. So, I'm thinking we'll see Oklahoma jump to the 5 spot, followed by Cincinnati and the rest of the list. They may even slot MSU in ahead of Cincinnati, but that isn't much of a punishment for losing to a then-5-3 team. I don't think they'll put Michigan in ahead of MSU yet.

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At night, the ice weasels come.

this week and if so, it is possible ND could jump up to No. 6 behind Cincinnati. If the committee does as they say they do and re-evaluate all teams each week, there could be significant shake-up between 3 and 10.

with Oklahoma's placement. OU has looked bad in a number of games, but so has literally everyone else not named Georgia - including Alabama. So either you punish everyone for having weak performances in wins, or you punish no one.

Frankly, Oklahoma should be No. 2. They are the only undefeated P5 team other than Georgia. But will the Committee move them all the way up there on a bye?

1. Georgia (obviously)
2. Oklahoma (only other P5 unbeaten)
3. Alabama (Better overall resume than Oregon, didn't lose last week, and doesn't have a head to head loss creating a ceiling in the rankings)
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State (has to be behind Oregon)
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan (has to be behind Michigan State)
8. Cincinnati
9. Notre Dame (has to be behind Cincy)
10. Oklahoma State

8. Cincinnati
9. Notre Dame (has to be behind Cincy)

6. Michigan State
7. Michigan (has to be behind Michigan State)

10. Oklahoma State

Sec, big 12, pac 12, and big 10 each get a single team in.

If the top 5 keep losing, Cincinnati, then ND would graduate up.

It would be silly to jump OU three slots for sitting at home; then again, not playing at all is probably the most impressive those chuckleheads have looked all season long. And as you said, allowing UC to get that close to one of the top 4 seats with so many weeks left to play will make their Big Conference bosses much too fidgety.

I'll go ahead and throw out a prediction that ND actually jumps MSU and Michigan based on our H2H result versus Purdue Pete compared to the Spartans, who were just felled by the same opponent. I don't expect to be right about this and don't believe it matters nearly as much as simply winning out and letting the chips fall where they may. But it does make a certain amount of sense.

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. OSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Cincinnati
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan State
9. Michigan
10. Oklahoma State

but I don't think OU jumps quite that high

1. Georgia (obv)
2. Alabama (Bama)
3. Oregon (should be another OU, but... reasons)
4. Ohio State (hope they beat the Michigan Bros then lose in the BX title game)
5. Oklahoma (close wins starting to look better when everyone has close wins)
6. Cincinnati (can't let Cincy be de facto #4 if more chaos)
7. Notre Dame (I think UM will be ahead of us but fuck Michigan)
8. Michigan (fuck Michigan)
9. Michigan State (fluke win over UM followed by bad loss)
10. Okie St. (nothing to say, so fuck Michigan)

- No text -

They did lose a game but they also challenged themselves by going on the road and beating a talented if shaky OSU team without their star player. As opposed to the Sooners, who played an embarrassing OOC schedule of Tulane, Western Carolina and Nebraska and whose best win to date is against a shoddy Kansas State team that's currently sitting at .500 in a decidedly gross conference.

I don't know how consistent their methodology may be, but I like to see teams being punished for putting together particularly cowardly OOC schedules. The Sooners have done little to date to earn the benefit of the doubt.

I don't know if Oregon is the 2nd best team, but I'd rank them second right now (I just don't think the committee will).

And as much as I hate OSU, and I hate OSU a lot, they're probably 4th b/c they scheduled Oregon and no FCS schools.

By contrast, Bama schedules shit OOC and never gets penalized for it. They'll be second b/c Saban scares the shit out of everyone.

ETA: I see how my post above was confusing b/c I deleted an earlier comment about Oregon. I'd rank them: UGA, Oregon, OU, OSU

to have two or more losses?

That would be incredible.

UGA, Alabama (no matter the SEC outcome), 11-1 ND, and 13-0 Cincy?

It just requires:

1 Oregon loss

1 loss by Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan that isn't to one of the other two.

2 losses by Oklahoma (plays Iowa State, Baylor, and Okie State, plus one of those teams a second time)

1 loss by Oklahoma State (will very possibly have to play Oklahoma twice)

- No text -

and then Cincinatti to be consensus number one, maybe even win the national championship, without making the playoffs?

Always OK to root against #1 unless ...

#1 be Notre Dame or the team that #1 is playing have initials UM

is playing the number 1 team and ND is ranked 2.

That would be a dilemma I may not be able to resolve.

Oklahoma is 9-0 and Oklahoma State is 8-1, but they might play each other on back-to-back weekends (final game + conference championship). If they split and OU also loses @ Baylor or vs Iowa State along the way, everyone in the Big XII will have 2+ losses.

The Big Ten teams all play each other to finish out the season, but I suspect the most likely path to 2+ losses for everyone is for Wisconsin to win the B1G Championship. I really think Ohio State is going to win out.

Oregon could lose to Utah either in two weeks or in the PAC-12 Championship game. Having to beat a team twice in 14 days is not easy, especially with one on the road.

There are still a lot of losses to hand out across those three conferences.

--
At night, the ice weasels come.

Computers like Notre Dame more than ND fans like ND, or the general CFB cognoscenti. And this is why our myopic ND eye test might fail us, because there is a lot of dogshit out there that hasn't proved themselves .... even if you're not sold on our resume. Crazy to think we'd fare better in a BCS world.

[tweet]1458101433916612619[/tweet]

Someone who went to ND and has grad degrees from Cincy and Michigan?

At the end of the 2012 season, the Colley Matrix ranked Notre Dame as first and Alabama second despite the Crimson Tide defeating the Fighting Irish 42–14 in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colley_Matrix

Where the hell was this guy in 1993? He's like the anti-Bill C.