here's a combined offense table for 2010

Following from the discussion below; rushing + receiving. Includes a couple of interesting stats you don't normally see in a box score:

* total snaps (appearances on the field)
* # times targeted as a receiver (whether caught or not)

All together, it gives you a nice picture of how the ball was distributed last year.

From this you could build some nice distribution charts, % of snaps versus targets/touches, that sort of thing.

Tags:
stats, snaps, receiving, offense

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Maybe all of this is already a given but what pops out to me:

1 - Start with the obvious; Floyd makes this offense go. I'd say in 2010 he was clearly more important than whoever was actually sending the ball his way. Based on diminishing returns, I hope that we can make someone else a high-level threat to balance our offense a bit.

2 - Cierre is poised to really have a break-out year. We all saw that Armando looked his best in his four years in 2010 before the injury, and yet Cierre did more with less (in terms of snaps vs production). To be fair he had the 2nd half of the season with an offense that had begun to gel a bit (QB excluded) but he could be quite the back in 2011... and we may need him to be.

3 - Pretty much the same goes for Theo. Got a lot of production while he was healthy and he is a versatile player to boot.

4 - Again, obvious, but Eifert should pick up easily where Rudolph left off. I don't know enough to say this definitively, but it seemed like he may be a better fit for Kellys offense than Rudolph. Practically an additional receiver instead of a true TE like KR. He and Welch could be quite a tandem.

Question: Was Tai-ler Jones injured for a portion of the year? I remember a few excellent deep-ball receptions of his and little else. If he joins Floyd, Riddick, and Toma we should have a serious offense opposite what is expected to be a star defense.

Gets me all tingly looking through Steele-colored glasses!

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Kinda creepy to see you actively editing that as I am reading it.

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"% Reliance", which is the number of rushes plus the number of times targeted as a receiver, divided by the total number of snaps. Sort of trying to get a sense of when you were on the field, how often did the ball come your way.

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I've always been frustrated that interceptions that bounce off the hands of receivers get counted towards the QB - yes this identifies me as a horrible stat nerd, but no one here should throw stones.

By looking at the percentage of caught balls relative to number of times targeted as a receiver you can really start to tell who is reliable. Considering how much emphasis is placed on a high completion percentage by the QB, it's interesting that it (statistically) isn't demanded of the receiver.

Our receivers from last year in terms of efficiency:
Floyd (79 of 129) 61%
Eifert (27 of 39) 69%
Rudolph (28 of 50) 56%
Riddick (40 of 66) 61%
Jones (23 of 40) 58%
Toma (14 of 18) 78%
Goodman (15 of 26) 58%
Kamara (11 of 14) 79%

Do with it what you will, or nothing at all. The one thing it highlights to me is that losing our top-end TE talent shouldn't hurt us too badly.

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I think it's interesting to look at targets versus catches, but we really can't deduce from the game summaries (where all this data comes from, btw) whether a non-catch was a drop (receiver's fault), an overthrow (QB's fault), a PBU (good defensive play), etc.

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Although counterpoint: can you tell that from a QBs completion percentage?

Basically where this gets more interesting to me is to see if a progression exists between first and fourth year receivers. We know a standard QB may go something like:

1: 55%, 12 TD, 8 Int
2: 60%, 16 TD, 6 Int
3: 63%, 23 TD, 5 Int

Basic, simple, incremental growth. I am curious to know if receivers progress in the same way as they are targeted more.

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A: We rely on Floyd (again, duh) he is literally more than 200% the target that any other receiver is

B: TE production seems to have dived since Weis' time

C: Cierre again looks like the winner relative to Armando. Despite the first-time starter tag, he managed to be a more popular target by the end of the season.

D: Update: looking at this, TJ had better step up his production or risk being replaced. In on 60% of snaps (2nd highest) but low on reliance and target. Not going to last long like that.

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If you look at the data in the context of Jones being a freshman pushed to the top of the depth chart right out of the gate, I think that his statline is more forgiveable. He started the season nicely (6 catches for 19 yds a pop and 2 TDs in the first 2 games) before slowly fading over the next six weeks. Then he hit a spurt again starting with Navy when we had a rash of injuries at the receiver position (10 catches over 2 games, 1 for a TD, but only 8.4 ypc) before completely dropping off the map. I don't remember the particulars, but he didn't even play against Utah. So I don't know if there might have been a minor injury or perhaps him not being quite ready physically for a full season -- no one would have confused him with Julio Jones out there -- but I'm still fairly bullish on Jones given that he still has most of his career in front of him.

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now includes the Sun Bowl:

Interesting about Jones; he disappeared for Utah-Army-USC (despite being on the field for a lot of snaps). I wonder if the reads just weren't there, or he did a lousy job of getting open. (Or perhaps they told Rees, don't throw any long balls.)

Tags:
stats, snaps, receiving

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I added "Percent Production", which is where the ol' nickname "20%er" originated for MF.

Really puts things into perspective. Prayers.

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should really do a lot to help MF. Both are players to draw the defense in while Mike dominates at the edges and over the top. I don't think we really have anyone ready to be a consistent deep threat so we are going to need to be efficient underneath.

If we have an efficient QB, not an all-star (don't think we have anyone that will qualify as that this year) we should put up a top-30 offense to go with our D. That will take us to BCS contention.

Also related memo to Dayne, likely future starter: stop getting the McNabbs and playing the bounce. This isn't beer pong, son.

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is a matchup nightmare for just about any defense.

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Will it be another TE (Ragone, Koyack)? Or will ND develop a 3rd WR (Goodman? TJ Jones? Daniel Smith? Toma? GAIII? Davaris Daniels?) that becomes an equally credible threat. That might be a lot to ask for ... but ...

If that happens, ND could really slay some dragons in 2011.

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That assumes your QB doesn't turn to his left and throw the ball 10 ft away into the dirt.

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there were times last year, his FIRST season as a starter, where Dayne looked like a world beater. He has it in him to be more than good, and I (apparently in the minority) think he will be.

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Kidding.

In reality, I think Dayne has the tools to be a big-time QB. As you note, he has shown moments of absolute brilliance. He clearly has an arm, and he clearly has the legs to run when called on to do so. The skills/tools he needs to develop are (in one dipwad's -- mine -- opinion): (1) decision-making at the college level, also known as knowing when to walk away and knowing when to run; (b) putting the right touch on the ball when under pressure; and (c) comfort with his receivers' skills and knowing what they will do to help him within the context of the Brian Kelly system.

These things require time. He's had it now, and we'll see whether he's able to develop those skills and allow his physical gifts to really show through. All joking aside, I hope he does.

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He's a good athlete and a very smart kid, but he was playing his first snaps against Division 1 caliber defenses in a brand new system. Now that he's had some time in there, and some time to extensively study Kelly's system, I think he'll be fine.

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Whether the ball GETS there...

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the Polo Grounds

here's a combined offense table for 2010

First Thoughts

Whoa

I just invented a new stat

Sort of invents another

good observation

Truth

Really does highlight things

I don't know about (D).

2010 targets per game breakdown (updated)

speaking of (A)

Having a healthy Cierre and Theo

A healthy Floyd, Cierre, Riddick and Eifert...

The real question is who is the 11th person on the field?

However . . .

I know this has become sort of a default joke, but...

I'm Missouri

I agree with you.

Someone WILL be open.