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the circle proportions are correct

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 11:38

and the overlaps are close, but probably definitely need some fine-tuning.

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Tags:
charts, draft

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that is baller

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 20:38 @ Jay

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editorial followup

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, May 13, 2011, 07:44 @ HumanRobot

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Tags:
charts

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A little place I like to call Heggieville.

by KGB, Friday, May 13, 2011, 09:32 @ Jay

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Which part of that area we aren't discussing interests you?

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Friday, May 13, 2011, 08:20 @ Jay

Is it that it is roughly the same size as the sections of 4-star and 5-star players combined? Is it the why that area exists at all? Is it that that area is so tiny relative to the size of that cloud that it goes unnoticed?

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oh, I mean the royal "everybody"

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, May 13, 2011, 08:25 @ LaFortune Teller

As in, everybody who marvels at the precision and predictive power of the Rivals star system.

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I know you've talked about this "everybody", but

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Friday, May 13, 2011, 08:47 @ Jay

do you really think that group would be surprised by your chart? I have always read those pieces that marvel as not dismissing the concept of that "missing" data, but rather that the missing data actually supports the argument that the star rating is a good indicator of likelihood of X (All Americans, NFL picks, etc).

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some thoughts

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, May 13, 2011, 09:18 @ LaFortune Teller

It started years ago, when Rivals first started putting stars on players. Plenty of people were saying, well, this is a bunch of horseshit. Hinton references the overarching conversation in his recent bit:

The holy hour of the vast, seedy recruiting underworld, national signing day, is two days away, which is also the signal for legions of recruiting skeptics to sound their annual, anecdotal chants of "Ryan Perrilloux!" and "Notre Dame!" and snake oil!" And occasionally, they make a persuasive case.

Hinton, then, and others like him, stand athwart the Star Ratings, saying yes, they do matter. Others harbor the same sort of triumphalism. You see it from serial posters like MNG, for example, often as a response to a "three star makes good" storyline, or a two-star-Jason-Smith-gets-drafted-second-overall example.

I think they overstate the importance. I think the correlations between star rating and college AA/NFL draftee speak for themselves: they're definitely correlative, and yet, they're limited in scope. And I think the way they are trumpeted sometimes creates a false impression that that's all that matters, when in point of fact, they are awfully imprecise. For every guy that Rivals pins the five-star medal on, there are many more that got no such recognition -- yet achieved at the same level as Mr. Five Star. I look at the fact that you could take the 36 five star players identified by Rivals last year, swap them with a completely different 36 player set, and still achieve the same correlation -- and I scratch my head.

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But you can't just swap out the 36 five stars for others and

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Friday, May 13, 2011, 10:26 @ Jay

achieve the same correlation. You could try, but it would be extremely unlikely that you would nail a single future NFL draft pick, much less a dozen or more.

You seem to be saying that the five star moniker doesn't mean anything. But it does. Are you just lamenting that is doesn't mean as much as it should? Or as others make it out to mean?

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I think the biggest issue

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Friday, May 13, 2011, 10:44 @ LaFortune Teller

Is that when it comes to recruiting, we almost tend to look at the star rating (or cohort or whatever) and not the player. It's almost as if the standard view is "take a five star, just add coaching, and voila! a first round pick!" but in reality a view that abstracted strips away the drama and journey of that player, coach, and school along the way.

Something else relevant is something Omahadomer once said:

I think probably all of the top classes are overrated in the sense that they overstate the differences between the top and the bottom. When Boise State beat Oklahoma a few years ago I didn't see any great physical difference between the teams. OU had one freakish player in Adrian Peterson but beyond that it looked to me like the teams could have switched jerseys and you wouldn't notice. However, OU was filled with 4 and 5 star players and I don't think that BSU had a single kid who had more than 3 stars per Rivals. It also wasn't a matter of OU being badly coached or unmotivated either. The truth was that those teams were a pretty darn even match.

Something that really speaks to that point are the recent articles on BHGP linked below. Suave_andrew has taken a similar look in the past. When you see schools as successful as Iowa, California, Cincy, and Wisconsin at turning 2* and 3* guys into first day picks, I think it's clear that there's something up. Brian Cook actually brings up a few good points along those lines. Rivals Midwest talent evalutation is almost non-extant. Also, when Wisconsin has 2 4* offensive linemen in the past 5 years, you know there's something imperfect in the Rivals rankings.

We also forget that Rivals can afford to take some liberties. They're prone to the some bias, such as upranking players once it's clear which program they'll wind up in and seeing which coaches really want which players.

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/4/30/2143688/the-best-and-worst-college-program...

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/5/4/2152743/college-football-player-development...

So yes, more five star players is good. But at the same time, I remember JVan getting ridiculed on NDN for saying last year's team didn't have much talent going into the season, but in the end it turned out right. We didn't really go into last season with a known quantity beyond Michael Floyd. Talent manifest in college football is so much more recruiting rankings.

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no, I think it obviously means something

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, May 13, 2011, 10:39 @ LaFortune Teller
edited by Jay, Friday, May 13, 2011, 10:48

but I think the importance placed on it tends to overshadow the true landscape of players. Rivals does their best at picking out the best players, and they do a pretty good job of it, but they miss more than they hit. And if you acknowledge all those misses, then I think the significance of the hits diminishes. I think the star system should be seen for what it is (a decent stab) rather than how it's often used (a definitive benchmark).

On the 36-player swap, I'm not saying you can grab any random set and achieve the same. I'm looking at it retroactively, saying, look at all the other players you could have chosen who turned out to achieve identical results.

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I did.

by Dylan, Santa Barbara, CA, Friday, May 13, 2011, 08:06 @ Jay

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Nice, really like this

by suave_andrew, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 19:10 @ Jay

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Where is the circle of trust?

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 13:54 @ Jay

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it's over there near the ring of fire

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 13:59 @ Jeff (BGS)

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I really don't know about the cloud.

by PMan, The Banks of the Spokane River, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 14:13 @ Jay

Did clouds get in the way of 2-star and under players?

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Like the love child of Carl Sagan and Phil Steele.

by Pete, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:38 @ Jay

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Rebel base, in range.

by Dylan, Santa Barbara, CA, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:05 @ Jay

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You may fire when ready.

by NDTerp, I am not Jay. I never have been Jay., Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:10 @ Dylan

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Bwwwwwurrrrrrrrrr.....

by FunkDoctorSpock, Your Nightmares, B* tches, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:21 @ NDTerp

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Commence Primary Ignition.

by NDTerp, I am not Jay. I never have been Jay., Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:22 @ FunkDoctorSpock

[Guy wearing helmet with NO EYEHOLES presses button and pulls lever on Grass Valley TV Switcher disguised as mega weapon laser beam]

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[Stormtroopers standing IN THE FIRING TUBE

by Dylan, Santa Barbara, CA, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:38 @ NDTerp

turn ever-so-slightly so as not to be vaporized by the planet-destroying death ray, think to themselves "this job sucks."]

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"Forget the dental plan, forget sick leave.

by Mike, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:41 @ Dylan

I just want a railing. You know, one railing right here!"

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It won't matter when we're famous singers.

by NDTerp, I am not Jay. I never have been Jay., Thursday, May 12, 2011, 13:30 @ Mike

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So ... roughly 40% of college AAs were rated below 3 stars?

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:00 @ Jay

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it's smaller, between 20 and 30

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 12:05 @ Slainte Joe

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Slainte is very familiar with hearing that.

by Chris @, Raleigh, NC, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 13:03 @ Jay

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Wait ... Is that a penis joke?

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 16:07 @ Chris

That's a penis joke, isn't it?

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Nice. You should add a circle of *all* high school players.

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 11:48 @ Jay

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I was trying to fit all-americans and draft picks together

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 11:53 @ LaFortune Teller

but I think it's impossible to put it all on one frame and still have the overlaps represented correctly (hence the split).

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This would make for a nice animation.

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Thursday, May 12, 2011, 11:57 @ Jay

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