Denbrock, Leonard and the Offense

I’m hardly a scheme expert, but I like to think I can spot high-level offensive concepts. Here are bits and pieces of background that I can look at and understand:

Leonard stuff:

Leonard 2022 highlights (video)
Every snap vs Wake, his best passing game (video)

Denbrock stuff:

Blog posts on his offense at Cincy (article 1; article 2 ; article 3)
Denbrock+Kelly offense at Lsu (article 1 ; article 2; article 3)
CoachTube 2022 – Skip RPO (premium video)
Denbrock@UC Coach’s clinic (video)

Analysis of Leonard at Duke:

Passing: most comfortable hitting underneath routes, seems to prefer hitting hit and stick routes. Not comfortable throwing deep. Very few PROs
Running: great athlete that seems most comfortable running improvisationally. Seemingly very few true “read-option” reads
Very little play action, waggle, or throw-on-the-run

Analysis of Leonard at ND:

Not quite as good of athletic burst as 2022 highlights, likely due to lingering issues from ankle surgery
Appears to have a much better designed QB run package compared to Johns’ work at Duke
Similar short passing concepts
Occasionally attempts at bread-and-butter Denbrock concepts like Skip RPO that go pretty poorly and only show up once/game.

Conclusions/thoughts: Denbrock must have thought he was getting a Desmond Ridder type player, but he’s largely had to shelve the majority of his concepts. You can say what you want about Daniels/Kelly/LSU, but Denbrock’s time at Cincy was his own and ND’s offense has been stripped down even compared to that. I don’t think the offense gets much better with Leonard at the helm as I don’t see a lot more for Denbrock to try to bake in.

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Is what I think we need to hear.

I am worried about NIL $ impacting choices. I suspect Riley is captain more because the coaches pushed him into that spot - and a way of showing trust. But not because he deserves it -- not being in spring, we didn't know what he actually was. And it's pocket un-awareness, doesn't show up as much in 7v7.

Personally, I'd give Riley the start and 2 series. Give the next guy 2 series. And then play whoever feels better at that point.

I am assuming Angeli is a clear #2. If he is not, they should have an equaly competition in practice over the next few weeks to give others a chance to unseat Riley and force Riley to earn it.

I suspect, with an open competition, the next guy will do well. Angeli looked much better last year than Riley has looked this year.

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Leonard is 118th out of 125. FWIW, Weigman is at 115, which might help explain the win at A&M.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8/p3

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It would seem Freeman's best move would be to throw Leonard under the bus and hope Angeli or whomever can run off a bunch of wins and then Leonard ends up scapegoated. It seems very foolish to believe there's a high ceiling player in there ready to emerge this season so building around him gets you nowhere and carries a high reputational risk.

I'm not sure who exactly paid up for Leoanrd's NIL package, though, and how they'd feel about that move; or who Leonard's agent is and what that would mean. If you're the ND admin I think you really, really are hoping Freeman can get this all into the mirror and make it look like Leonard's fault. Even if Angeli, Carr or Minchey drops another game or two, if you have next year's quarterback by the end of the season you at least have something to sell. If you ride a busted rental to a terrible outcome things could get real ugly on the donor front

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Some Leonard scapegoating. Loy is a national dude, but I don't think that had been announced at the time Leonard committed to ND. Loy is saying now that Will Howard would have taken an ND offer if given.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and we're still dealing with a small sample size here, but if the staff had the choice between the two, really looks like they screwed the pooch there.

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Really, all that needs to be said for any and all changes, including benching NIL-rich QBs.

(edit: atxND said as much below. Sorry.)

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We are about to see if Freeman is up for the task.

A lot of pundits have talked about how they can't necessarily make a move to Angeli/Minchey/Carr because they have "too much invested in Leonard."

Freeman has to be so focused on the end result right now that it doesn't matter where the money is spent. Bellichek stayed with Tom Brady after his $100M QB got hurt, even when Bledsoe was ready to come back. Didn't matter that there was money spent a ton elsewhere, he knew that the team's best chance to win was in TB12.

This is not the same situation, but if Freeman feels hamstrung by "needing" to play Leonard because there is money invested there, well then a) he isn't built to have the challenging conversations with people to lead this team and b) there are massive issues with managing the NIL fund managers/etc. who run FUND, etc.

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who chipped in a nickel for any of the recent NIL, endowed coaching positions, indoor facility, new team facility, or anything else feels otherwise. I suspect that whoever cut the check for Leonard is mostly pissed at Leonard.

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It's very tough to have Bowden & Freeman begging a Jay Jordan type for X million dollars to bring in a guy and then bench him in week 3 (oh yeah, and getting the school to pony up so Bowden doesn't leave for UM in the off season as well).

At this point, this looks like a huge eval/projection miss that just can't happen when you have a personnel department budget like ND's.

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I assume you have to be willing to admit when you've got a busted deal. Anybody with that kind of money understands the concept of a sunk cost or else they wouldn't be in that position to begin with. Jay Jordan probably busts 2 or 3 out of every 12 deals in each of his funds. It happens. Winning trumps all.

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there was almost certainly a big to-do and presentation about why Leonard was the guy and if you're Freeman & Bowden, you really, really can't afford to have the Jordan/Mendoza guys questioning your competency. These are the guys you're going to be coming to for your next "need" but also, these are the guys who, if you are in trouble, are going to be on the search committee for a replacement and funding your buyout. They're like the Iron Bank, you don't want to ever have to tell them you've fucked up if you can avoid it

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issues. I'd really not be worried.

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The staff barely let Oben step on the field on Saturday until Burnham went out.

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world for company leaders to try to do anything they can to avoid sharing bad news with investors. I'm hopeful (in no small part because I think you might have to give up on the Leonard investment to save the Denbrock investment) but we'll see

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If we presume they're watching, there's no hiding the bad news from anyone. Billionaire PE executives value honesty and quick executive decision-making and can smell B.S. from a mile away. That's how they got there. You lose more credibility long run by telling them the sky is green than making a gutsy call and cutting your losses (if benching Riley is the right call, which I'm not saying it is because I'm not the OC or HFC).

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than I am in the team chemistry aspect. Riley is a captain and has earned a level of trust from his teammates. But those teammates also want to win, and there will come a point (maybe it's already come) where there will be a consensus that he's holding them back in games they would otherwise win.

Leonard almost certainly will start against Purdue, but if he doesn't play any better, then Freeman almost will be forced to at least give Angeli a series or two. At that point, the donors and Leonard's NIL agent won't have a leg to stand on. Their guy had multiple chances, and he blew them. Team success trumps all.

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If the locker room was somehow adamant about Leonard keeping the job. He's already blown through the worst case scenario on the rationale for him being there

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To get the job up to and after the bowl game. Can't imagine there would be a riot if he got the nod this weekend. He's been thru the battles with these guys.

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backups or not. Could be an aberration I suppose, but he played with a high degree of confidence and cool judgment.

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But I don't think it's in Riley's personality to let this become toxic. It would also be very short sighted of him, since making things publicly toxic would be regarded very poorly by future employers, in football or otherwise.

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"Riley was a little dinged up, but we didn't realize the extent of his injury until Sunday. He is a tough kid and wants to be out there on the field with his teammates, but we can't put him in a position where he is limited on the field. Carr/Angeli will start against Purdue."

The only thing Freeman loses in this situation is the ability to insert Leonard in specific packages. Leonard might be useful in a goal line package where there are no downfield throw available anyway, for example.

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against A&M, and everyone saw him take some hard shots last Saturday.

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but we also might be definitively discovering some of Freeman's tragic flaws

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2nd & 8, 4th quarter. We appear to have a 3 on 2 advantage up top, and it looks like an RPO design, potentially with a Read component on the DE as well, though I welcome input from others.

Greathouse, the bubble WR should be able to pick up the first here easily if the guys up top can remotely hold their blocks. Instead, he hands it off to Love for a 3 yard gain.

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They ran it against A&M once and this play. Both plays looked really, really off.

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that was the type of shit that Ian Book started completing in early 2018 and it felt like we were playing a whole different sport

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The play right before was a WR screen to Greathouse. Here's how the play looked right after the snap:

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A good throw would lead Greathouse into the lane that's being set up. Our numbers here aren't perfect, but if (Schrauth?) can get a body there, Greathouse should be able to get 5 at least.

Instead, the throw is late, and to make matters worse, it's high, so Greathouse has to leave his feet to make the catch. We get 2.

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Like, this isn't hard stuff. Replacement level QB play could jump start this offense, and we're not getting it.

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I don't believe in the 'you can't move away from RL; they built the offense around him!' bit you hear from Goolsby. At this point, it's like 2 designed QB runs that go in the garbage -- plays we don't want to be running a ton anyway! You'd gaining back all sort of concepts that RL can't run.

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1. The 2 best skill players we have are Price and Love. And it's not close. Good football says you have to maximize their touches. I know we have OL concerns, and I respect Ford, but I haaaaaaaaaaaaaaate that we take our two best offensive players off the field on third and long right now.

2. Evans, when healthy is No. 3.

3. Our WR group is much improved from last year's, but these aren't guys who are going to make plays on their own. They need a throw on time and on target. Instead, we have Greathouse skying for a screen and Mitchell trying to dig a 5 yard in out of the turf.

4. Assuming Raridon and Flanigan are roughly as good at TE as our WRs are at WR right now, I'd get them on the field more in the hopes that they can enhance the opportunities for Price and Love.

5. We have a very young OL that needs some help slowing down the rush with screen and quick game. Leonard has been very shaky on those throws. And it's making his life harder too.

So, we have some OK parts, but no gamewreckers other than the two RBs. So, we need a QB who can facilitate an offense that is greater than the sum of its parts. And that ain't Leonard's strength. If I had time, I bet I could find a post I wrote saying the same thing regarding Wimbush vs. Book.

I'd trend towards 12 personnel (even occasional 22 personnel) and Angeli at this point. I know we want to be more explosive. But that's going to have to happen mostly on play action to Collins and Faison at this point.

I believe Freeman knows that "Tresselball" can't win in this era and that we need to be more explosive. Denbrock was a step in that direction, and we are trying to spread it and chuck it. I also think he knows we need to show more explosive passing success (not of the "in our own face" kind we saw on Saturday. But the fact of the matter is that despite his best intentions, we can't force it. And nothing matters more than winning.

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I think Faison and Collins with good QB play and suitable OL protection could be a pretty solid receiving duo.

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help them both a lot by focusing more on the run game. Get Collins in one on one matchups on the sideline. And weaponize Faison in the screen game and getting over the top of safeties crashing down against the run.

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Leonard spent so much time in the pocket on Saturday but we also didn't attempt any throws downfield (save, you know, the one, and I guess Greathouse's drop).Like, not at all clear what the theory of the case even has been beyond "Beat Texas A & M." There's no way that they don't have a plan for the season, right? Why else would you make the OL moves you made?

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with QB designed runs.

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to question whether the offensive design and playcalling is putting Riley in a position to succeed (rather than laying it all on "Riley sux")

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This looks like Denbrock taking the Duke 2022 tape and running what Leonard likes to do. He's tried to shoehorn in a few things but dropped it when it wasn't working.

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we would have triaged QB transfer targets differently if Denbrock had been more of a part of the process.

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Drops aren't helping, and the "throws to nowhere" could easily be on the receiving corps as much as Riley.

Regarding to the OL issues, when Leonard gets pressure at the top of his drop, he can at least scramble away and make something happen. In the A&M game, there were multiple bad snaps where he was able to recover quickly and get some positive yards. I don't see how swapping in someone else solves these issues.

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out too slowly (or not at all). Look at the first pick from Saturday -- not only does Leonard miss Collins beating the safety on a streak, he locks onto Greathouse (who is open), pump fakes to Greathouse, then throws late to Greathouse and gets it picked. Or look at Charles' post above about the botched RPO.

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But that it was more of an overall team suckage.

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I'm going off my (shaky) memory, but I seem to recall a few times that Leonard took the snap at his feet in both games.

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the Polo Grounds

Denbrock, Leonard and the Offense

"Both QBs will play"

If you believe in Pass Efficiency as a QB metric

The politics of at all are kind of interesting

The paysites are already starting up

Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois in the home opener.

Investment vs. Results

Winning is the only ROI. And I very much doubt that anybody

You and I were in a race to say the same thing.

yup

For anyone donating NIL money for Riley Leonard

it's probably a lot more fraught than that

One is not a pattern. On bust #3, you have credibility

Looks like both their Duke transfers are busts

I think you're right but it's the most common thing in the

Riley Leonard isn't going to sink Denbrock

Bad news is 16-14 NIU wins in South Bend.

good point

I'm less worried about the politics

it would blow away everything I know about team sports

Angeli probably had some locker room support

Exactly. To me that bowl performance was impressive,

Malik Zaire had locker room defenders somehow

Freeman can couch it in injury

Exactly. Everyone saw his throwing hand hit the helmet

I agree, I think it's the dominantly superior move

An example of the RPO not working (I think)

yup that's the skip RPO idea

Great example, and shows how much a change at QB could help

Yeah, the little things would go a long way here

it's also why

Goolsby is smart, but I think he likes his "takes."

indeed

I think there are some things we know at this point.....

a quibble

Yes. Ideally those are your two bellcow receivers. And you

it's honestly not even clear what we were trying to do

it's the Duke 2022 offense

Faison expected back this week, fwiw

Great summary

haven't heard his take on this, but I think it is fair

do you have some playcalling/design in mind?

We had Leonard before we had Denbrock. I wonder whether

we also have protection problems, and receiver problems

you don't see the plays that don't happen because it comes

not saying he didn't suck

Pretty sure, the bad snaps happened on Saturday also