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on a scale of risk, grade these hires (at the time)

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:09
edited by Jay, Friday, June 29, 2012, 13:52

On a scale of 1 to 5, with "1" being a total flier, or highest risk, and "5" being as safe as you can get in today's coaching carousel.

Try to grade them in terms of the hire at the time, leaving aside the benefits of hindsight.

Don't think too much about it -- just go with your gut, 1 to 5.

EDIT: when you're done, group them by 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s so it's easy to read.

--------------

Florida hires Urban Meyer

Florida hires Will Muschamp

USC hires Pete Carroll

USC hires Lane Kiffin

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin

Oregon hires Chip Kelly

Washington hires Ty Willingham

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian

Auburn hires Gene Chizik

Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher

Ohio State hires Jim Tressel

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez

Nebraska hires Bo Pelini

Alabama hires Nick Saban

Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt

Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh

Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino

Miami hires Randy Shannon

Miami hires Al Golden

Colorado hires Dan Hawkins

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio

ND hires Charlie Weis

ND hires Brian Kelly

Tags:
coaches, hires

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interesting exercise. composite ranking:

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:37 @ Jay

(and adding my two cents on whether the hire met expectations, exceeded them, or underperformed...)

4.93 Alabama hires Nick Saban - met
4.50 Florida hires Urban Meyer - met; possibly exceeded
4.37 Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino - in progress, but looking good
4.13 ND hires Brian Kelly - in progress
3.87 Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt - incomplete, probably a bit under
3.83 Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson - underperformed
3.53 Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez - severely underperformed
3.27 Colorado hires Dan Hawkins - severely underperformed; fired
3.23 Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio - exceeded expectations
3.00 Nebraska hires Bo Pelini - incomplete, but seems to be working out
2.90 Miami hires Al Golden - ask again later
2.86 Ohio State hires Jim Tressel - exceeded expectations
2.73 Oregon hires Chip Kelly - exceeded expectations
2.70 Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher - looks promising
2.54 Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh - exceeded by a longshot
2.47 Miami hires Randy Shannon - underperformed; fired
2.43 Florida hires Will Muschamp - ask again later
2.43 ND hires Charlie Weis - underperformed; fired
2.43 USC hires Pete Carroll - exceeded by a mile
2.33 Washington hires Steve Sarkisian - in progress, but slightly under
1.77 Auburn hires Gene Chizik - exceeded
1.77 Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin - probably met expectations given how low they were
1.67 USC hires Lane Kiffin - in progress, will be tempered by sanctions
1.00 Washington hires Ty Willingham - underperformed even these abysmal expectations

Tags:
coaches, hires

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nit - disagree on Sarkisian

by JD in Portland ⌂, Portland OR, Monday, December 13, 2010, 20:57 @ Jay

I don't believe he is underperforming. Ty did more damage to that program than he did to ours and and it was in far worse shape than ours ever was before he got there. UW fans I know are to a person very happy with Sarkisian.

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awards

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:40 @ Jay
edited by Jay, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:46

Best Performance with Lowest Expectations: Pete Carroll, hands down.

Runners-up: Jim Tressel, Gene Chizik.

Worst with Highest Expectations: probably Rich Rodriguez if he gets fired and goes out on this note. If not him, then Dan Hawkins.

Runners-up: Paul Johnson?!? (high expectations/perceived low risk; 26-13 overall, 6-6 in year 3, 0-2 in bowls)

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Pete Carroll, winner of the Carr-Fulmer award.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Monday, December 13, 2010, 11:38 @ Jay

[ No text ]

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Interesting that Alabama's hiring of Saban...

by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:11 @ Jay
edited by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:20

...appears to be universally viewed as the best that any school has made over the past however-many years. Their search up to that point had been a protracted debacle, in particular the very-public spurning from Rodriguez when he used a traditional powerhouse program as leverage to get himself a better deal at a second-rate school playing in a second-rate conference. And they had been through a fantastic amount of coaching-related embarrassment already, having dealt with the hiring and firing of Mike Price, being ditched by Dennis Franchione and the general ugliness surrounding Mike Dubose. It's fair to say that their recent exploits in the pursuit and retention of football coaches up until the time when Saban fell neatly in their lap made ND's administration look like a finely-honed Swiss freakin' timepiece by comparison.

When it comes down to it, a lot of this boils down to good timing and dumb luck. Let's hope that we can say the same about ourselves a few years from now, thinking about the field goal that narrowly avoided UC's ascension to the BCS championship twelve months ago.

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My attempt

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 07:53 @ Jay
edited by Domer99, Monday, December 13, 2010, 11:01

Alabama hires Nick Saban - 5 Coaching success at numerous college stops. Had an MNC in his cap. Lucky situation for Bama, though, because Saban realized his limitations as an NFL coach.

Florida hires Urban Meyer - 4.5 To me this isn't revisionist history. He was the hottest coach on the market. Notre Dame and Florida were courting him. I was tempted to put Kelly in this same category but to me Utah and Bowling Green > Cincy and Central Michigan, especially with the turnaround job he had to do at both places.

Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson - 4.5 Great, great hire. Wasn't sure that option football would fly in BCS football but he's done a nice job.

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino - 4.5 I wanted to have this higher, except his only college HC gig was Louisville before taking over. I knew it would be a good hire.

ND hires Brian Kelly - 4 Again, I wanted to have this higher and can't really articulate why I think he might fall below a Johnson or Petrino. Really a good hire, and probably the best available.

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez - 4 This only looks terible in hindsight. He had taken a program Don Nehlen built up and made it even more relevant. Yes, I know that WVU played in the 88 national championship, but the Mountaineers were always near the top of the Big East and nearly got to another title game. I also reward him for a 6 year tenure at WVU, versus shorter ones of other candidates.

Miami hires Al Golden - 3.5 I like this hire. Maybe this is based on potential more than track record. Miami could have done worse, and just about did (Trestman?)

Nebraska hires Bo Pelini - 3 Good solid hire. Guys who weren't previously head coaches automatically get downgraded in my ranking system. He was familiar with Nebraska and vice-versa.

Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt - 3 Really good hire and would have been a 4 if he didn't come with so much baggage. I am simply waiting for an Oxford reporter to have her cell phone subpeonead under the Freedom of Information Act.

Ohio State hires Jim Tressel - 3 I like the hire. But this was a high calculated risk. Could have done worse but got the lowest hanging fruit available.

Oregon hires Chip Kelly - 3 The only part about this hire I love is that Belotti hired him knowing he was going to be his successor. So the coach in waiting mentality worked here. Outside of Oregon and Maine circles, I don't think anybody knew who Chip Kelly was.

Colorado hires Dan Hawkins - 3 Maybe the flavor of the month, and perhaps we learned a lesson from him and Dirk Koetter. When Koetter got hired away, Hawkins was the brains. When Hawkins got hired away, it was Peteresen. I hate to stigmatize Petersen but I'd be leary of his ability to replicate Boise St.'s success elsewhere. They have a strong foundation but none of it seems transferable.

Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher - 2.5 I don't like the coach in waiting situations, but FSU was in need of a turnover. This was done as delicately as it could have been given Bowden's legendary stature. He has a good pedigree but no head coaching experience.

Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh - 2.5 San Diego was a doing alright before Harbaugh "turned the program around." I thought this was a mediocre hire that came with a lot of personal baggage risk.

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio - 2.5 Probably not being totally fair to Mark. Good, but unspectacular run at Cincy. Nice OSU bloodlines. But not sure it warranted a Big 10 gig.

Florida hires Will Muschamp - 2.5 Falls in line with my philosphy of no head coaching experience. We've all heard how coveted this guy is. Coach in waiting, blah, blah, blah. But I'd have thought more of this hire if it was Texas than Florida. I think it's hard for any new coach to take over any program, let alone one of the nation's top programs and add no HC experience. At least at Austin, he'd have some familiarity with the culture, program, and school.

ND hires Charlie Weis - 2.5 Not a good hire but one I was warming up to in the beginning. Honestly, I still think Weis will turn up as a good coach down the road, maybe call it the Belichick-Cleveland experiment. I wanted Meyer bad, but this was more acceptable to a Tom Clements hire. If his organizational/leadership skills improve and he figures out how to identify a good defensive coach, then he won't forever be a lost cause.

Miami hires Randy Shannon - 2 OK, hire. He was familiar with the program. That's about all I can say. Oh, he had support of the old alums.

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian - 2 High risk, average reward. But honestly, anything was a step up from UW's previous hire.

USC hires Lane Kiffin - 2 High risk, high risk. But I don't know that many coaches were lining up to take this job. Lane has proven he can recruit and assemble a staff but none of his employers have ever demanded he be able to coach.

Auburn hires Gene Chizik - 1.5 Mind blowing. Whose fan base shows up to a small airport simply to deride a coach and tell him how bad he is? When I think about his hire, it still makes me laugh. But he's laughing Lowder.

USC hires Pete Carroll - 1.5 6th choice in a 4 selection search. I was certain he'd be a failure.

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin - 1.5 When Al Davis calls you a liar, red flags should go up. In Tennessee's case, that was the qualifying criterion for competing in the SEC.

Washington hires Ty Willingham - 1 Words cannot describe how idiotic this hire was. Tyrone Willingham is incapable of getting another football related job again, ever. Not even through the minimum quota minority NFL mentoring program as a special teams coach.

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I guess I don't see how Meyer rates higher than Kelly.

by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 09:02 @ Domer99

Historically, UC has been a much worse program than Utah, and it wasn't like the Utes were a total mess when Meyer took over. Ron McBride went 8-4 just a year before his dismissal. BGSU and CMU are about comparably woeful.

If Meyer had an edge, it's that he seemed to be more successful right out of the gate at each stop, but I would say that Kelly's additional head coaching experience and success at GVSU more than makes up for that.

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A couple of thoughts

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:11 @ KGB

Part of my criteria included the appeal factor. In my mind, the fact that Meyer was being publicly courted by: 1) the most historic college program and 2) one of the more recently successful elites, trumped Kelly's interest. I think the other offers Kelly had were Washington and Tennessee. The perception was the Meyer was a very wanted man.

But the other factor, and one you mention, is that Ron McBride was let go. Yes, he had an 8-4 season the season before being fired but he sandwiched that in between a 4-7 season and a 5-6 one. McBride was a let down for Utah, especially because the other sports coach Utah hired (Rick Majerus) was leading the men's basketball team to a national title appearance. The program really had no trajectory, other than a middling program in a mildly competitive non-BCS MWC.

Cincy looked to be a nice stepping stone job. D'antonio was hired away by a Big 10 school, not fired by a MWC one. Now, that said, I kind of think Mark's stint in Cincy was a little overhyped, but there was some momentum.

I also tried to think about in terms of ND's desired target. I don't know all of the underlying rationale but we seemingly fired Willingham because we had an opportunity for Meyer. We fired Weis, talked to Stoops, then ended up with the best available candidate. I don't know that Swarbrick would have ever canned Weis simply because of what Kelly might have done. Maybe I am wrong, and extrapolating too much but that's my uneducated vantage point.

As an aside, I really wanted Meyer back then but as time has gone by, I am so happy we didn't. I have serious issues with his character that I can't get over, even if he were to make ND a winner.

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I think the perception of Kelly was similar a year ago.

by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:18 @ Domer99

But you can't get offers for jobs that aren't open. Consider the desirability of Kelly if he were still at UC today. I don't think it requires much of a leap of faith to say that he'd be at or near the top of the list for most of the recent openings, and I would add UM to that list.

IMO, there was an emotional attachment to Meyer that wasn't really there with Kelly, at least for most Irish fans. But removing that from the equation and sticking to the CVs, I find the resemblance to be striking.

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I don't disagree.

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:51 @ KGB

My opinion heavily relies on the idea that timing is everything. And the lanscape for high profile jobs wasn't near as fertile as it has been this season.

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Along these lines...

by MattyCinNYC, Parts Unknown, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:40 @ KGB

I'd be interested to see how one's success coaching at a lower level (D-1A, D-II, etc.) translates to success at the top tier schools.

You've got to think that actual coaching and player development is at a premium, given that you are left with "the scraps" and kids that don't have the obvious talent that wind up getting D-1A scholarships.

At a point, that probably evens out with recruiting acumen. You can be a great recruiter and a shitty coach and things tend to go poorly (see: Zook, Ron).

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I desperately hope that Lane Kiffin turns into a poor man's

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:54 @ MattyCinNYC

Ron Zook. And it seems entirely plausible right now.

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I think the perception of Kelly a year ago...

by Greg, the 'Dena, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:26 @ KGB

...was very high, except among a subset of ND fans who wanted a more accomplished (read: "NC winning") coach to jump ship and come to ND. I know I've said it before, by my Michigan friends were really bummed last year because they saw Kelly being their coach right about now if he hadn't taken the ND job. They figured Rod for a year like this one and then a firing that would have allowed Kelly to step in and take Rod's players and actually turn them into a productive team. And my friends from Stanford, USC, UCLA, BC, Washington, etc., all believed last year that ND scored big in getting Kelly.

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I think there's a lot right in this thread

by Mike (bart), Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:45 @ Greg

One of the best appeals of Meyer was that he seemed to fit the 'ND Messiah Coach' profile so perfectly. Especially given the fact that were were toiling under an "Emperor Has No Clothes" type who had been hailed as just such a prophet earlier in his tenure.

I know I've harped on this before, but ND Football under Ty Willingham was an embarrassment. The way we played was embarrassing. The way our coach dribbled on through vacuous inanities was embarrassing. The way we gave our players a chain to carry out to the field, or had them wear that driving test gadget in the offseason was embarrassing. Even, in a way, our penchant for unexpectedly knocking a big name team off randomly was embarrassing.

When Meyer ditched us it was like that scene in Never Been Kissed when the popular kid asks Drew Barrymore to the prom and then when she goes to get in the limo he pelts her with rotten eggs.

After Weis, we weren't good, but we had problems that were identifiable and realistic . We were a normal bad football team and we didn't get a messiah coach, we got a normal good football coach who seems to be putting us on a normal trajectory towards program improvement. I dig it.

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good read

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Monday, December 13, 2010, 09:00 @ Domer99

[ No text ]

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taking a snab at it

by Pat, Right behind you, Monday, December 13, 2010, 06:48 @ Jay

5 - Alabama hires Nick Saban


4 - Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt

4 - Florida hires Urban Meyer

4 - Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez

4 - Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson

4 - Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino

4 - ND hires Brian Kelly


3 - Nebraska hires Bo Pelini

3 - Miami hires Al Golden

3 - Colorado hires Dan Hawkins

3 - Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio

3 - Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher

3 - Ohio State hires Jim Tressel

3 - USC hires Pete Carroll


2 - USC hires Lane Kiffin

2 - Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin

2 - Florida hires Will Muschamp

2 - Washington hires Steve Sarkisian

2 - Auburn hires Gene Chizik

2 - Oregon hires Chip Kelly

2 - Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh

2 - Miami hires Randy Shannon

2 - ND hires Charlie Weis


1 - Washington hires Ty Willingham

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A bit odd that

by Pete, Monday, December 13, 2010, 04:38 @ Jay

Saban is consistently rated as one of the top picks in recent history, a pretty regular five, while Rodriguez is middle-of-the-pack at best -- and Alabama fell into Saban after Rodriguez backed out.

Head coaching hires is a funny business.

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Guess we're on the same wavelength.

by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 10:31 @ Pete

[ No text ]

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Here goes nothing.

by Pat (Moco), Slave Den, Brian Cook's Basement, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 22:46 @ Jay
edited by Pat (Moco), Sunday, December 12, 2010, 22:49

Alabama hires Nick Saban -- 5
--Won the lottery. Great HC, great program-runner.

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino -- 5
--Great success at prior FBS schools, got a steal by hiring him.

Florida hires Urban Meyer -- 4
--No big school HC experience but highly regarded head coach who won BCS game.

Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt -- 4
--Good hire, prior HC experience, put Arkansas on the map essentially in the modern era.

Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson -- 4
--Prior FBS experience, basically rebuilt Navy football. Great hire.

Miami hires Al Golden -- 4
--Success at FBS school. Massive turnaround of that program. Highly regarded, seen as successor to JoePa.

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio -- 4
--Success at FBS school, prior HC experience, ran good programs.

Miami hires Randy Shannon -- 3
--Coordinator, no prior HC experience, but from same school. Not a major improvement over prior coach.

Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh -- 3
--Prior FCS experience as HC. Smashmouth attitude.

Colorado hires Dan Hawkins -- 3
--Success at FBS school. Seemed like a good hire at the time.

ND hires Brian Kelly -- 3
--Prior HC experience, good track record, not long enough stays at prior schools to indicate a significant pattern of success however.

USC hires Pete Carroll -- 3
--Former failed NFL coach, had HC experience, no college HC experience but former coordinator so he knew the business.

Oregon hires Chip Kelly -- 3
--Former FCS HC, was coordinator for Oregon before taking over, likely learned much about being HC as a coordinator.

Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher -- 3
--Highly regarded coordinator, was coordinator for 3 seasons before taking over at same school. Very similar situation to Chip Kelly in my opinion.

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez -- 3
--Great success at BCS school, however his offense was a mirror image of what players he required from team he inherited. He likely would be a great coach if they kept him for 10 years, in my opinion, but that's not going to happen.

Nebraska hires Bo Pelini -- 3
--Only a coordinator but highly regarded. Was coordinator at NU before taking over, so it's likely he learned similar to Chip Kelly and Jimbo Fisher.

ND hires Charlie Weis -- 2
--No HC experience anywhere. No college experience anywhere. Very smart but no prior track record to indicate future success.

Florida hires Will Muschamp -- 2
--No big school HC experience. No HC experience at all.

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian -- 2
--Highly regarded coordinator, no HC experience, but program needed something better.

Ohio State hires Jim Tressel -- 2
--Former FCS HC, had success there, though not an indicator of FBS success.

USC hires Lane Kiffin -- 1
--HC for one season, iffy track record. Major risk, considering state of program.

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin -- 1
--See above. Never prior HC.

Auburn hires Gene Chizik -- 1
--Former HC, horrible record at BCS conference school. Major risk.

Washington hires Ty Willingham -- 0
--Pure idiocy. No consistency as a coach. Poor track record. Former HC at major programs in FBS but failed at all of them with sporadic success. Left destruction wherever he went. Poor work ethic. Horrible leader. Poor recruiter. Writing was on the wall and UW ignored it--put their program in the pooper for years.

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okay here goes

by JD in Portland ⌂, Portland OR, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 22:09 @ Jay

5 - Florida hires Urban Meyer
3 - Florida hires Will Muschamp
3 - USC hires Pete Carroll
2 - USC hires Lane Kiffin
2 - Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin
3 - Oregon hires Chip Kelly
1 - Washington hires Ty Willingham
3 - Washington hires Steve Sarkisian
3 - Auburn hires Gene Chizik
3 - Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher
3 - Ohio State hires Jim Tressel
4 - Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez
3 - Nebraska hires Bo Pelini
5 - Alabama hires Nick Saban
4 - Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt
3 - Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh
4 - Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson
5 - Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino
3 - Miami hires Randy Shannon
3 - Miami hires Al Golden
3 - Colorado hires Dan Hawkins
4 - Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio
2 - ND hires Charlie Weis
4 - ND hires Brian Kelly

A few footnotes -
I agree with the comment far below about considering the program and factoring that in to the level of risk. For example, Rutgers giving Weis his first head job and trying him at college level would have been less risky than ND doing it.
And a team hiring their own ass't (e.g. Chip Kelly) to be first time head coach is somewhat less risky as he knows the program and they know him, learning curve not quite so steep.

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The USC hire of Petey . . .

by Glass, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:22 @ Jay

was on par with ND's hire of John MacLeod to run the hoops program.

And it will be interesting to see if Mike Haywood becomes a hot commodity if he has another good year at the cradle of coaches.

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Mine

by PMan, The Banks of the Spokane River, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:20 @ Jay

5 - Florida hires Urban Meyer
2 - Florida hires Will Muschamp
3 - USC hires Pete Carroll
2 - USC hires Lane Kiffin
2 - Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin
3 - Oregon hires Chip Kelly
1 - Washington hires Ty Willingham
3 - Washington hires Steve Sarkisian
2 - Auburn hires Gene Chizik
3 - Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher
3 - Ohio State hires Jim Tressel
3 - Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez
3 - Nebraska hires Bo Pelini
5 - Alabama hires Nick Saban
3 - Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt
3 - Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh
4 - Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson
4 - Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino
3 - Miami hires Randy Shannon
3 - Miami hires Al Golden
3 - Colorado hires Dan Hawkins
3 - Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio
3 - ND hires Charlie Weis
4 - ND hires Brian Kelly

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Hard to do this without hindsight

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:42 @ Jay

not even on the specific performance but because each one helped set our current prism-Rodriguez shows the importance of a good cultural fit, Weis shows the danger of a career assistant, etc.)

Alabama hires Nick Saban: 5 (does risk include an early departure?)

Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt: 5 (maybe not much upside but a he had been winning at good-for-Ole-Miss levels at a comparable school)

Florida hires Urban Meyer: 5 (very very highly regarded)

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino: 5 (highly regarded, coup for a Tier II school)

Colorado hires Dan Hawkins: 4 (great track record)

ND hires Brian Kelly: 4 (solid all around)

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio: 4 (very solid hire)

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez: 4 (very good career up to that point)

Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson: 3 (questions about recruiting/media management bring him down)


Miami hires Randy Shannon: 3 (in program hire seemed very safe)

Nebraska hires Bo Pelini: 3 (ditto)

Oregon hires Chip Kelly: 3 (ditto)

Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher: 3 (ditto)

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin: 3 (at this point, he was an ex-NFL HC who had been a successful college coordinator)

Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh: 3 (Sure, why not? Better than Teevans.)


Miami hires Al Golden: 3 (promising HC at a smaller program)

USC hires Pete Carroll: 3 (NFL HC and successful coordinator. Vacillating on this one-honestly don't remember my reaction when he was hired.)

ND hires Charlie Weis: 3 (I believed)

Ohio State hires Jim Tressel: 3 (good background but questions about how he would handle big stage)

Florida hires Will Muschamp: 2 (high risk but high reward)

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian: 2 (no HC experience)

Auburn hires Gene Chizik: 1 (5-19).

USC hires Lane Kiffin: 1 (by thsi point, he had proven he was a clueless d-bag)

Washington hires Ty Willingham: 1 (Washington only school that didn't figure out the emperor had no clothes).

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I'm curious as to the high marks given to MSU for Dantonio?

by hobbs, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:01 @ JRT
edited by hobbs, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:15

IMO, there has got to be some hindsight working here. His record at UC was worse than the guy who he was hired to replace (Minter). Did people really say that he was an above average hire for MSU in 2006? And if so what was that opinion based on?

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I'm not sure how to explain his first two seasons

by BPH, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:13 @ hobbs

But his 2006 season impressed me. He only went 7-5 (Kelly won the bowl game), but four of the losses were to Ohio State (12-1), Virginia Tech (10-3), Louisville (12-1) and WVU (11-2), all on the road. And he comfortably beat 9-4 USF and 11-2 Rutgers. I think a fair reading is that Kelly did great work at UC, but that Dantonio set a pretty good table for him in terms of toughness and discipline.

Dantonio was also considered one of Tressel's best assistants, and he was the coordinator when they won the national title.

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Above average, or low risk?

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:09 @ hobbs

There's some hindsight going on here, but Dantonio as a football coach oozes "low-risk."

It's his style of play, his old bosses style of play, etc.

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You're right

by hobbs, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:28 @ JRT

I blew right by the "low risk' aspect of the hire and gave my rankings based on my view of the coaches upside.

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mine

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:35 @ Jay
edited by HumanRobot, Monday, December 13, 2010, 07:18

Assuming this is on an absolute scale:

5
Alabama hires Nick Saban - Duh
Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez - Never thought a guy who beat Georgia and Oklahoma (you get the idea) would be 6-18 in the Big Ten after three years. Philosophical inflexibility and culture clash were his ultimate doom.

4
Florida hires Urban Meyer - Impressed, but unsure if his "rinky-dink" offense would work in the SEC. Looks like it did.
ND hires Brian Kelly - Still have the faith, path to glory will take a little longer than expected

3
Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin - at the time, had too much stock in the ex-NFL coach thing. Still, solid college OC bringing an all time great in as his DC.
USC hires Pete Carroll - liked his college experience, but never thought his tenure would be as great as it was
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson - really good hire for Georgia Tech. Hit his station in life, I think.
Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino - really solid coach, not sure he can coach defense well enough to win in the SEC. We'll see how he fares without the 5* Mallet. Probably a "4" coach, but historical risks bumped him to a "3" in my book.
Miami hires Al Golden - really solid coach on the rise.
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins - hard to argue with his record, but I didn't realize how big of a mess CU was. In hindsight, looks like BSU has a very well built program as well.
Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio - MSU more than anything needed stability and I thought Dantonio would bring that to the table. Only a "3" since I thought 8 or 9 win seasons would be his level.
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt - As a coach he was worthy of a "4", but his departure from Arkansas raised some concerns.

2
USC hires Lane Kiffin - program about to receive sanctions hires coach who earned secondary violations at UT for waking up... Ack. Still, I thought he assembled a great staff at USC.
Oregon hires Chip Kelly - coordinator
Florida hires Will Muschamp - coordinator
Washington hires Steve Sarkisian - coordinator
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher - coordinator
Ohio State hires Jim Tressel - Div-IAA coach
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini - coordinator
Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh - FCS coach and asshole
Miami hires Randy Shannon - coordinator
ND hires Charlie Weis - coordinator

1
Washington hires Ty Willingham - Better them than us
Auburn hires Gene Chizik - Nice job at Iowa State

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Mine

by DCT, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:54 @ Jay

5's
Alabama hiring Saban
Arkansas hiring Petrino
Florida hiring Meyer
ND hiring Kelly

4's
Colorado hiring Hawkins (I really thought this would work)
ND hiring Weis (I really thought this would work).
Ohio State hiring Tressel
Ole Miss hiring Nutt
GT hiring Johnson

3's
Michigan State hiring D'antonio
Miami hiring Shannon
Nebraska hiring Pelini
Michigan hiring RichRod
Oregon hiring Chip Kelly
FSU hiring Fisher

2's
Stanford hiring Harbaugh
Miami hiring Golden
Washington hiring Sarkisian
Florida hiring Muschamp
USC hiring Carroll

1's
Tennessee hiring Kiffin
USC hiring Kiffin
Auburn hiring Chizik
Washington hiring Willingham

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It's tough to eliminate hindsight.

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:45 @ Jay

1 - Washington hires Ty Willingham

2 - USC hires Pete Carroll
2 - USC hires Lane Kiffin
2 - Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin
2 - Auburn hires Gene Chizik
2 - Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh
2 - ND hires Charlie Weis

3 - Florida hires Will Muschamp
3 - Oregon hires Chip Kelly
3 - Miami hires Randy Shannon
3 - Miami hires Al Golden
3 - Nebraska hires Bo Pelini
3 - Washington hires Steve Sarkisian
3 - Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher
3 - Ohio State hires Jim Tressel

4 - Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez
4 - Florida hires Urban Meyer
4 - Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt
4 - Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson
4 - Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino
4 - Colorado hires Dan Hawkins
4 - Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio
4 - ND hires Brian Kelly

5 - Alabama hires Nick Saban

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Mine

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:30 @ Jay

A little tricky, since some of these are pretty relative. For instance, I think MSU made a very good hire with Dantonio given that they are MSU. They're not going to get a-list coaches.

5
Florida hires Urban Meyer

4
Ohio State hires Jim Tressel
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt
Alabama hires Nick Saban
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson
Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino
ND hires Brian Kelly

3
Florida hires Will Muschamp
Oregon hires Chip Kelly
Auburn hires Gene Chizik (I don't really remember this hire)
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher
Washington hires Steve Sarkisian (tempted to give this a 4)
Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins
Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio (tempted to give this a 4 - for MSU, this was a very good hire at the time)
ND hires Charlie Weis

2
Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin
USC hires Pete Carroll
Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez
Miami hires Randy Shannon
Miami hires Al Golden

1
USC hires Lane Kiffin

0
Washington hires Ty Willingham

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You think Meyer in 2004 was a better hire by UF

by hobbs, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:38 @ Jeff (BGS)

than Saban by Alabama in 2007?

I just don't see how you can rank Meyer's hiring ahead of Saban considering that Saban already had a NC under his belt when 'Bama hired him. Urbie had an undefeated season in the MWC.

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I really wasn't as sold on Saban

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:14 @ hobbs

Meyer was the hot young commodity with a great pedigree, and IMO a fantastic hire.

There was something about Saban that I just didn't trust, although it has since pretty much worn off. I don't know if it was the moved from LSU to the pros and back or all his late season fades at MSU or what, but there is something about him that rubbed me the wrong way.

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You aren't alone

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 07:58 @ Jeff (BGS)

I didn't rank it that way. But I had heard too many disgruntled MSU fans tell me stories about St. Nick to make me think that Bama and Saban are a match made in heaven. Add to that, you probably couldn't assume that he'd be there for more than a couple seasons before moving on...and I could easily justify Meyer's ranking over Saban's.

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If you include the risk of bolting, his risk quadruples.

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:44 @ Jeff (BGS)

[ No text ]

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Yes, but I think it was much less risky in that he

by tex29, Dallas, TX, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:47 @ JRT
edited by tex29, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:50

had taken his shot at the NFL and decided he'd prefer to be back in college. Given that Alabama is one of the premier all-time programs, the likelihood of him bolting for another program would have to be pretty small.

Therefore, I don't think it was very risky from that standpoint. Bobby Petrino, on the other hand...

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Not sure I agree

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:03 @ tex29

Saban's earned more than a cup of coffee in the NFL, with previous stints with the Oilers and Browns before failing with the Dolphins.

I wouldn't put it past the guy. Pete Carroll should have been the same way, right? And I honestly don't think Pete solely bolted for Seattle because of looming sanctions at SC. I think the cash was very right and he wants to vindicate himself.

I could see a similar situation playing out for St. Nick.

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You could be right, but I think Carroll is different.

by tex29, Dallas, TX, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:52 @ Domer99

I think the sanctions were a bigger factor than you seem to think.
But more importantly, he was fired from the NFL. Saban packed up and left volutarily. I think any sort of "vindication" motive would be much stronger for Carroll. And I don't think money will be the issue, as I think Saban was being paid quite well at Miami.

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Possibly

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 09:54 @ tex29

I really think all of the USC parties were so delusional, that Garrett was able to convince the entire department that they had the damage under control.

Maybe I am being deceived, but I just don't think Pete is that smart.

I recognize that Saban's situation is different but the Bama job is the type that can really grate on a coach, especially one that's not a southerner who is enamored with all the other parts that come with the gig (i.e. the football religion culture). And unless he churns out a couple of more titles, he'll always be second to Bear Bryant.

Maybe, I am biased but I think Saban's got a big ego. Don't get me wrong, I think his style is much more suited to the collegiate game, I just think hubris can get the best of this guy.

Although, if he's smarter than I think, he'll be in Tuscaloosa for a while. I just see him as pretty nomadic, even if his history suggests that all of his moves have been very logical.

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Fair enough.

by hobbs, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:28 @ Jeff (BGS)

[ No text ]

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My scale goes to 11 (edited)

by BPH, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:28 @ Jay
edited by BPH, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:40

5s
Florida hires Urban Meyer: I was devastated when we didn't get him
Alabama hires Nick Saban: no-brainer
Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino: I think he's one of the best around
ND hires Brian Kelly: I considered a 5 (edit: and then switched to a 5. Hard to ignore almost 20 years as a head coach, no matter the level)

4s
Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez: it's easy to forget that he was Alabama's first choice
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt: won 18 games in his last two years at Arky
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins: I recall liking him as a candidate in 2004
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson: one of the best in the business

3s
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini: about as safe a choice as I can imagine for a coordinator
Miami hires Al Golden: solid experience as coordinator and head coach
Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio: solid work as coordinator and head coach
Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh: I followed his work at USD closer than most

2s
Florida hires Will Muschamp: unnecessary risk, but I can see the upside
USC hires Pete Carroll: avoids a 1 only because of extensive NFL resume
USC hires Lane Kiffin: at least he had been a head coach in the SEC
Oregon hires Chip Kelly: hand-picked by Belotti, program continuity
Washington hires Steve Sarkisian: always struck me as a smarter, more ethical Kiffin
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher: Bowden hand-picked him, but I've never understood the draw
Miami hires Randy Shannon: his coordinator work was compelling
ND hires Charlie Weis: biased view, but his Patriots resume was exceptional
Ohio State hires Jim Tressel: hard to ignore no head coaching experience above 1-AA

1s
Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin: pretty big head-scratcher
Washington hires Ty Willingham: they deserved what they got
Auburn hires Gene Chizik: good coordinator or not, it's hard to get past 5-19

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Mine

by hobbs, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:27 @ Jay
edited by hobbs, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:35

On a scale of 1 to 5, with "1" being a total flier, or highest risk, and "5" being as safe as you can get in today's coaching carousel.

Try to grade them in terms of the hire at the time, leaving aside the benefits of hindsight.

Don't think too much about it -- just go with your gut, 1 to 5.

EDIT: when you're done, group them by 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s so it's easy to read.

--------------

Alabama hires Nick Saban - 5

Florida hires Urban Meyer - 4

Oregon hires Chip Kelly - 4

Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt - 4

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino - 4

Miami hires Al Golden - 4

ND hires Brian Kelly - 4

Florida hires Will Muschamp - 3

Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher - 3

Ohio State hires Jim Tressel - 3

Nebraska hires Bo Pelini - 3

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian - 3

Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh - 3

Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson - 3

ND hires Charlie Weis - 3

USC hires Pete Carroll - 2

USC hires Lane Kiffin - 2

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin - 2

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez - 2

Miami hires Randy Shannon - 2

Colorado hires Dan Hawkins - 2

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio - 2

Auburn hires Gene Chizik - 1

Washington hires Ty Willingham - −459°

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I had too many threes to make my answers useful.

by Kevin @, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:23 @ Jay
edited by Kevin, Monday, December 13, 2010, 06:27

I think Rodriguez was a little less risky than Kelly. Petrino and Nutt were probably better hires, though each wasn't without risk -- flight risk with Petrino; crazy risk with Nutt. Meyer to Florida and Kelly to ND were a pickem, though I think Meyer might have been less risky for ND because he had worked there.

Every other hire was riskier than ND hiring Kelly.

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Curious why you think that about Rodriguez

by BPH, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:43 @ Kevin

Pretty much the only thing Rodriguez had over Kelly was a BCS bowl victory. I've compared their resumes closely, and Kelly's is more impressive in almost every way.

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It's a close call, but Rodriguez had a longer tenure at WVU

by Kevin @, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:48 @ BPH

Also, I would think he dealt with more scrutiny and fan pressure there than Kelly did at Cincy. I can see the other side of this one -- that's just where I come out.

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I thought RR was a desperation hire, moreso that Meyer/Weis

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:19 @ Kevin

After getting shunned by Les Miles, I felt like Michigan was truly scrambling and took whoever they could get.

At least with Weis, I thought ND had somewhat of a plan (a successful OC who could install a sophisticated offense and ensure ND's tougher academic requirements were a true competitive advantage). It didn't work, but I felt like it was a reasonable gamble.

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Agree.

by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 09:23 @ Jeff (BGS)
edited by KGB, Monday, December 13, 2010, 09:30

And I would knock a full point off RR's score based simply on fit. That hire was so completely out of left field and inconsistent with what Carr and UM had built that it didn't worry me in the least. And the fact that Rodriguez took the job a year after turning down Alabama (much better fit) and redoing his WVU contract with the hefty buyout provisions was mindboggling to me. Even still, I didn't imagine that the decision would turn out quite this poorly for either side.

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It may have been

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:16 @ Jeff (BGS)

But at the time, I really thought Michigan made a better hire with Rodriguez than they would have with Miles. I was disappointed that Miles didn't take the job.

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I don't think Miles shunned them.

by Kevin @, Monday, December 13, 2010, 06:25 @ Jeff (BGS)

I think Lloyd Shanghai'd the Miles pursuit.

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Lloyd was smarter than he looked

by JN @, Seattle, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:44 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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Sexist.

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:53 @ JN

C-cups can't look smart?

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Is that wisdom or risk?

by tex29, Dallas, TX, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:40 @ Jeff (BGS)
edited by tex29, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 20:43

You said that Weis was a gamble. A reasonable one? Sure. But I thought the question was to assess the relative risk of hiring one versus the other, rather than the relative wisdom of doing so.

Rodriguez, even if he wasn't Michigan's first choice, had proven that he could win as a college head coach. And he built and sustained West Virgina's program with arguably lesser talent than he would presumably have at Michigan.

Weis had barely sniffed a college campus as a coach, and he had no head coaching experience outside of high school. I thought Weis would succeed, but I can't say that hiring him wasn't a huge risk. It was just a risk that I thought would pay off.

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I didn't rank mine on risk

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 21:59 @ tex29

Unfortunately, I almost never read the directions. I was probably ranking on risk/reward with a little gut feel thrown in.

I suppose you could say Willingham was the lowest risk hire out there. Everyone knew he would fail, and he delivered on expectations 100%.

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risky business

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:22 @ Jay

Interesting exercise. I ended up with only four 4-5 grades, mostly due to previous success at various stops.

Alabama hires Nick Saban 5

ND hires Brian Kelly 4
Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino 4
Florida hires Urban Meyer 4

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez 3
Miami hires Al Golden 3
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins 3
Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio 3
ND hires Charlie Weis 3
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson 3
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt 3
Oregon hires Chip Kelly 3

Washington hires Steve Sarkisian 2
Auburn hires Gene Chizik 2
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher 2
Ohio State hires Jim Tressel 2
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini 2
Miami hires Randy Shannon 2
Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh 2
Florida hires Will Muschamp 2
USC hires Pete Carroll 2

USC hires Lane Kiffin 1
Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin 1
Washington hires Ty Willingham 1

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ok...

by irishoutsider @, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:22 @ Jay

Fair enough, but the copying and the pasting better be worth it. I hope there's some kind of Nielsen polling going on here, and I would like some free tV popcorn out of this.

ND hires Brian Kelly - 5
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson - 5, relatively speaking for GTech and I'm totally biased
Alabama hires Nick Saban - 5
Florida hires Urban Meyer 5

Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio - 4
Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino - 4
Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez - 4
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini - 4
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt - 4
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins - 4

Florida hires Will Muschamp 3
USC hires Pete Carroll 3, low 3
Washington hires Ty Willingham - 3
Washington hires Steve Sarkisian - 3
Auburn hires Gene Chizik - 3
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher - 3
Ohio State hires Jim Tressel - 3
Miami hires Randy Shannon - 3

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin - 2
Oregon hires Chip Kelly - 2
Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh - 2
ND hires Charlie Weis - 2, bordering on 1 and I would have called Tom Clements a 1 as well.

USC hires Lane Kiffin 1 - batshit crazy hire, he's a walking violation.
Miami hires Al Golden - 1, I don't know the whole story with him, but my first reaction is that its still a reach. a shadow of what UF just did.

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you made me go back and bump up Urban

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:25 @ irishoutsider

but, 5 for him? Pshaw.

I'll give you 4, but he only had four years as a HC. I can't put him in Saban territory based on that.

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Now that I'm back to stable internets....

by irishoutsider @, Monday, December 13, 2010, 08:48 @ Jay

Urban gets a 5 from me, if only for the fact that I spent most of that night completely cracked out on original formula Sparks brand energy malt beverage (key ingredient: vodka packet), convinced myself that I had gone blind, and proceeded to thrash uncontrollably until I was too exhausted to hate.

Its relative, and you asked me to go back to that specific point in time. Urban was considered a no-doubter. Not just by NDs flying circus. The accepted story is that Foley had him in hand mid-season to avoid any offseason shenanigans/seal the deal. There was enough there. He had the pedigree and enough experience in the lower ranks to step up to the power conferences. There were doubts his offense could run in the SEC, but it was widely agreed that any program would be happy to give him the keys.

I put Kelly at a 5 as well, for different reasons. I feel the trajectories are similar, but Brian was considered the best possible, available name out there last winter.

The only clear cut 5 is Saban, and I think that's where you are going with this entire exercise. The universe of no-doubters is extremely limited. It's easier to find the next Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, wonderkind than it is to find a messiah coach, if only because you get to draw from a much larger pool.

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Yeah, but as Einstein would say, it's all relative.

by tex29, Dallas, TX, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:28 @ Jay

Urban should be a low 4, and Saban should be a high 5.

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Mine (edited)

by tex29, Dallas, TX, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:16 @ Jay
edited by tex29, Sunday, December 12, 2010, 19:27

NOTE: I tried to factor in how good of a coach I thought a school could realistically hope for. Thus, Houston Nutt, Paul Johnson, and Bobby Petrino are rated high, because I don't think their respective schools could have hoped to do any better.

1's

Tennessee hires Lane Kiffin
Washington hires Steve Sarkisian
ND hires Charlie Weis

2's
USC hires Pete Carroll
Oregon hires Chip Kelly
Washington hires Ty Willingham
Auburn hires Gene Chizik
Florida State hires Jimbo Fisher
Miami hires Randy Shannon

3's

Florida hires Will Muschamp
USC hires Lane Kiffin
Nebraska hires Bo Pelini
Miami hires Al Golden
Colorado hires Dan Hawkins
Michigan State hires Mark Dantonio

4's

Michigan hires Rich Rodriguez
Florida hires Urban Meyer
ND hires Brian Kelly
Georgia Tech hires Paul Johnson

5's

Arkansas hires Bobby Petrino
Alabama hires Nick Saban
Ole Miss hires Houston Nutt

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