OT - I'll call Doug Jones for the win tonight

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 12:56 (2320 days ago)
edited by hobbs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:13

I just got back home and I haven't heard anything on the race. In the end I just don't think that R. Moore is going to have the weight of numbers to defeat a motivated Democrat base coupled with Republicans who simply find him an unacceptable figure to represent their state at a national level.

That said I wouldn't mind seeing how the Washington/National branch of the GOP deals with Moore. On the flip side a Moore loss would represent a huge facial for the President and his Kamikaze "wingman" S. Bannon.

Either way I expect to be entertained tonight.

^^ Blind Squirrel ^^

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 10:45 (2319 days ago) @ hobbs

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Proven wrong, thankfully

by PasadenaDomer @, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 22:34 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

Good to see Alabama still has a wheel on the track.

The only negative outcome of last night's election

by IrishGuard, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 07:06 (2320 days ago) @ PasadenaDomer

is that I didn't have the chance to post a video of that song.

But, clearly, I'll take it.

Ahh, fuck it. Here it is anyway, since they still went 48% for Moore:

Oh my God Jones is a Finebaum guy

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 20:44 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

Over the years, Mr. Jones, now 63, has remained a rare combination: part bourbon-sipping Southerner and part New York Yankees-loving Democrat. He has often called in to discuss legal matters with Paul Finebaum, whose radio talk show is akin to a religious service for college football fans in the Southeast, and he has been a longtime friend of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., whose 1988 presidential campaign he worked on. Mr. Biden returned the favor with a rally appearance in October.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/us/doug-jones-alabama.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&...

So you’re saying he has Finebaum’s ear

by Jack @, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 21:13 (2320 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)

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Probably wouldn't have won if he wasn't

by CK08, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 21:04 (2320 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)

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I hope this changes the national narrative a bit

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:54 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

of Alabama as a retrograde backwater punching bag. It is that, but there are a lot of good and sensible people there too, including my in laws who while traditionally Republican nevertheless campaigned for Jones in Mobile.

In Europe, it's changing the narrative about America

by HCE, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 07:24 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

The Washington Post had a good summary of the German, French, and British media responses. And while I think that, after Brexit and May's Faustian bargain with the DUP, the UK probably shouldn't be pointing fingers right now, most of Western Europe is as pleased as we are.

Alabama election result seen as ‘miracle’ in a Europe horrified by Trump
By Rick Noack December 13 at 6:28 AM
1:29
‘I’m just so incredibly proud’: Jones’s supporters celebrate victory
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Supporters of Democrat Doug Jones on Dec. 12 celebrated his victory in Alabama’s U.S. Senate special election over Republican Roy Moore. (Alice Li/The Washington Post)

BERLIN — Roy Moore’s defeat on Tuesday evening may have come as a relief to liberal Americans, but in Europe it was taken as a sign that the United States has not totally lost its moral compass.

Last year’s election victory of President Trump, who is deeply unpopular across Western Europe, appears to have severely damaged the United States’ status as a role model in Europe. The defeat of Moore in Alabama's special election to fill a U.S. Senate seat was interpreted by many as a reversal for Trump and a sign that all is not lost across the Atlantic.

Relief in Europe over the Alabama election result was far from limited to liberal media outlets and was widely seen as a “notable setback for President Donald Trump,” as France’s liberal Liberation newspaper wrote. Its center-left competitor Le Monde declared the Tuesday result a “referendum about Trump’s political agenda,” and Britain’s Financial Times agreed that it was “a big blow for Mr Trump.”

That sentiment was perhaps most pronounced in Germany, where confidence in Trump has been even lower than in neighboring France and Britain. The center-left German weekly Die Zeit framed the defeat as “the miracle of Alabama.”

Writing in Germany’s conservative newspaper Die Welt, Clemens Wergin explained that the “victory of Jones shows that America has changed since Trump’s election.” Whereas many voters did not take the numerous sexual assault allegations against Trump seriously ahead of Trump’s victory one year ago, there now appears to be a growing awareness that defied partisan lines, he wrote.

“Many people in Alabama want to send a message to the world: America is still able to show a tolerant and cosmopolitan face,” wrote Jan Philipp Burgard, a Washington correspondent with German public TV station ARD.

European nations such as Germany and Britain have long considered themselves close allies of the United States, but leaders here are finding it increasingly difficult to work with a president who has repeatedly lashed out at them and is deeply unpopular among European voters.

Trump’s low approval ratings in Europe have defied partisan lines. Many conservatives, as well as liberals, have viewed Trump’s remarks during his campaign about banning Muslims, building a wall and pulling out of climate and trade deals as populist and divisive.

Europe is also struggling with a populist, right-wing resurgence of its own that has made electoral inroads in recent years in countries such as Hungary, Poland and Austria, not to mention a second-place showing in France's presidential elections. While the populist right remains restricted mostly to the political sidelines, it was encouraged by Trump’s victory.

Moore’s defeat was also interpreted as a sign of a revival of “decency” in the United States. Alabama’s voters “have proved that politics is not just about party interests, but decency and morality as well,” commented Alexandra von Nahmen, head of German broadcaster DW’s Washington bureau. (DW is funded by the country’s Foreign Ministry but operates independently.)

To von Nahmen, the refusal of the majority of voters in Alabama to support Moore is not only an electoral but also a moral defeat for Trump. “The Republicans’ loss lies squarely with Donald Trump. He believed his support for a candidate like Moore would ensure victory. But Alabama voters did not allow the President to get away with this amoral behavior. That too is a good thing,” wrote von Nahmen. That sentiment was widely echoed Wednesday by other major European news outlets, which called the defeat a “black day for Trump” and proclaimed a “red line for Trump-style politics.”

“Donald Trump chose to waste what little remains of his political capital on a man accused of being a sexual predator of teenage girls,” wrote Guardian U.S. columnist Richard Wolffe.

Whereas most reactions here focused on the possible repercussions of Moore’s defeat on a national level, one sentence from Democratic election winner Doug Jones stood out: “I have always believed that the people of Alabama have more in common than divides us,” Jones said.

His words almost exactly matched those of slain British member of Parliament Jo Cox, who died last year in an attack by a man with links to a U.S. Nazi group.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/12/13/alabama-election-result-se...

I hope it does, too.

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 06:58 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

I've hammered Alabammy here a time or two, and obviously some of the same degenerates who were defending Moore just a day ago are now flipping the script to offer backhanded congratulations to Democrats for beating an accused child molester by a mere 20k votes. But never mind that shit. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in the state in more than two decades, and Jones overcame not only history but also an increasingly polarized electorate that was not exactly predisposed to support him in that particular territory. It would be neat if Alabama represented the tipping point in the "two steps forward" that Obama talked about a year ago.

I hope that the selfish, shortsighted GOP fucks in Congress enjoy the big victory of their impending handout to "small business owners". Because next year is going to be a goddamned bloodbath. Hopefully 2020, as well.

Btw, the margin likely would have been larger without the Republicans' disturbingly-predictable voter suppression tactics. There's almost nothing as reprehensible in this country as taking action to deny a legitimate citizen the right to vote. And there is only one party in America today who is so shameless and morally bankrupt as to attempt to silence very specific groups of citizens and impose their will.

https://www.theroot.com/alabama-election-one-black-voter-s-experience-at-the-p-1821237274

Maybe, but I'm not convinced re Alabama or most of the Sout

by Grantland, y'allywood, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 06:34 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

h. At least not the rural white South.

This guy was a:

- law defying (x2)
- homophobe
- racist
- misogynist

He would have won but for also being a pedophile/rapist.

Exhibit. 1. Must Watch. Looks like a Southpark skit.

by Grantland, y'allywood, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 06:51 (2320 days ago) @ Grantland

Not likely

by HullieAndMikes, Yelling at Sam Cane, Dunedin, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 05:29 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

People are going to be shaking their heads for decades that Jones only won by 1.5% and needed 23,000 write-in votes to beat Moore. The exit polls paint a very bleak picture on how voters judge information and perceive their interests.

Some narratives are just hardwired. Also, it depends on who runs against him next time.

I think it will

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 05:13 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

Like most of the board, I was very pleasantly surprised with the outcome. It offers a me hope that the insanity going on today is the the first step down a much worse road. Rational people can come together and change things for the better.

Before the election, I saw a lot of "Please do the right thing, Alabama" posts on social media. After it was called, many people were celebrating. I think this definitely changes the national perception of Alabama.

Having said that, this may have been a "nowhere to go but up" situation. I'm not sure that the national opinion of Alabama was all that high to start with. The cynic in me is a little depressed that the race was ever in question in the first place, but we have to start somewhere.

--
At night, the ice weasels come.

They had limits.

by Kevin @, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 01:55 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

I’m sure many voted for Trump and would say things about Hillary that’d strip paint off the walls. But they would only go so far. Enough of them realized they’d have to look at each other on Sunday and live with the choice they made yesterday.

I hope everyone who took that ill-advised chance on Trump will soon come to the same conclusions Alabama did about Moore. You have to be fit for office. You have to be a functional adult. You have to be respectable and honest, and you have to be capable of speaking at a junior high pep rally without getting a boner.

Still, if I were running the Democratic Party, I’d let people continue to figure this out for themselves. Some Trump voters did the right thing yesterday. Don’t rub their noses in it.

Love can last a lifetime

by Pat, in the cloud, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 21:15 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

This is Alabama
And a wheel is forgiving the road, the road
Now you're making music for beautiful people by the sea
Who don't need a song, need a song

Tenderness to you was only talk about a bruise
This is Alabama

Wow...AP just called for Jones.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:27 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

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yea for black folks

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:46 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

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Yep.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 20:13 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

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I have a Facebook friend (an AA woman)

by CK08, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:53 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

who always points out when Trump does crappy stuff that 94% of African American women voted against him.

Given the White woman vote of late

by Angel, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 20:04 (2320 days ago) @ CK08

I don’t blame her. They voted for Moore, too, which is equally inexplicable.

Almost 2/3 of white women voted for Moore;

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 04:20 (2320 days ago) @ Angel

while over 70% of white men voted for Moore. Franklin Graham and other religious leaders supported this guy as well. It is time to admit that there is something seriously wrong with white evangelical culture (and not just in the US) that they would overwhelmingly support a guy for Senate or POTUS they wouldn't leave alone with their 14-year old daughter.

I think they simply didn’t believe the stories

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 07:12 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

There’s a parallel bizarro reality out there where Roy Moore isn’t the guy the evil liberals say he is. They would never vote for a known pedophile. That would be unconscionable.

Fake news works, especially when it’s backing up your own biases.

Exit polls showed 95% of Moore voters didn't believe it

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 13:58 (2319 days ago) @ Jay

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--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Take away the child molestation charges

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 07:21 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

and you still have a guy who believes that only male Christians should serve in government, that homosexuals are evil sinners, and that the 13th, 14th, 15th, and 19th amendments are bad for this nation. These are his words. And they still supported him. That is pretty fucked up.

this quote in particular...

by Pat, in the cloud, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 14:02 (2319 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

In response to a question from one of the only African Americans in the audience — who asked when Moore thought America was last "great" -- Moore acknowledged the nation's history of racial divisions, but said: "I think it was great at the time when families were united — even though we had slavery — they cared for one another.... Our families were strong, our country had a direction."

Slavery

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 18:38 (2319 days ago) @ Pat

when spouses and children were separated and sold to other slaveowners, Yeah...great times.

It's why the Voting Rights Act gutting is so devastating

by HullieAndMikes, Yelling at Sam Cane, Dunedin, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 05:17 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

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Jones won only 1/7 of voting districts

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 06:46 (2320 days ago) @ HullieAndMikes

that is how bad gerrymandering is there. Also, there were numerous accounts of dirty tricks to prevent blacks from voting. I predict the GOP's take will be more suppression rather than moderation.

I still haven't seen an adequate study of 2016

by HullieAndMikes, Yelling at Sam Cane, Dunedin, Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 06:55 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

And how election law changes in Wisconsin and other places affected black voting.

Huge swings in the college towns.

by CK08, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:46 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

538 has Jones 15 points ahead of his benchmark in Lee County (Auburn) and 10 points ahead of his benchmark in Tuscaloosa County. War Eagle and Roll Tide.

Also, he was 21 points ahead of his benchmark in Jefferson County (Birmingham), almost certainly on the strength of suburban voters (because it wasn't possible to improve that much with city voters, I don't think).

Those are going to be the stories of next year's midterms, in my opinion. Suburbs going heavily blue and red state college towns suddenly being blue enough to make a difference.

I saw that Jones won the under 45 vote by +20.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 20:12 (2320 days ago) @ CK08

That does not portend well for the GOP.

That’s what the Clinton team was banking on

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 20:00 (2320 days ago) @ CK08

Unfortunately they forgot a lot of those voters really don’t like the Clintons and didn’t bother shoring up their base.

(knocking on wood) It looks like Jones might just do it.

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:23 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

Hey, nice call, hobbs

by BPH, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:28 (2320 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)

Thank you, sensible people of Alabama!

The funniest part of all of this

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:29 (2320 days ago) @ BPH

is that Sessions could've been a Senator for the next 20 years if he wanted. Whoops!

Wish I could be optimistic

by PasadenaDomer @, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 17:08 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

However, Alabama will Alabama and send Moore to the Senate. Democrats are so far outnumbered, and the Republican power structure has been doing everything in their power to suppress those Democratic votes. Too many obstacles for the Democrats to overcome in Alabama, even with a Republican as despicable as Roy Moore. Hope I am proven wrong.

Per NBC, exit polls have black vote at 30% of the electorate

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 17:05 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

which would make things very, very interesting.

Jones' camp said it had to be at least 25 to have a chance

by BPH, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 17:12 (2320 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)
edited by BPH, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 17:22

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Highly doubtful.

by Angel, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 16:27 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

I don’t think we’ve sunk as low as we can yet.

Sometimes it’s good to be wrong!

by Angel, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:46 (2320 days ago) @ Angel

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I'm hoping Jones comes within single digits.

by MattG, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:23 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

I'll come down from my earlier prediction that Moore wins by 30. I don't even think Moore will win 60-40. Probably 58-42 or so. Hopefully less.

Moore won the primary, against the establishment's preferred candidate, despite the fact that he was comically unacceptable by that point, with a decades-long track record of lawlessness.

And that was against a Republican. Now, he's against a Democrat.

I'm not even sure the "dead girl, live boy" corollary would have worked in this political environment.

it’ll be Moore in the teens

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:31 (2320 days ago) @ MattG

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The jinx lives!

by MattG, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:29 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

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Moore is still in the teens

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:33 (2320 days ago) @ MattG

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I first read this as "Moore is still into teens"

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:39 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

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--
At night, the ice weasels come.

I missed Jay’s joke badly.

by MattG, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:43 (2320 days ago) @ Jeff (BGS)

Moore + teens. I am slow and joyless

I missed it until the second time around

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:45 (2320 days ago) @ MattG

And then only because I isn't read good.

--
At night, the ice weasels come.

Just tell me that ND will go 0-12 next year.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:35 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

and Trump won't be in prison. Oh...rim shot.

I'll take the other side of that.

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:11 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

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This guy is funny.

by Grantland, y'allywood, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 14:48 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

Charles Pierce’s writeup on the Moore rally last night

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:59 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

was priceless.

BTW, being pretty familiar with Alabama I am not as sanguine on Jones’ chances. I think the polls where he leads are mostly live (not robo polling) and some Alabamians are reluctant to voice support for Moore to a fellow human being (but will pull the lever anyway).

I definitely think that's what a lot of AL voters

by oviedoirish @, Oviedo, Florida, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 14:37 (2320 days ago) @ Jay

will do.

I predict a lot of write-in votes for Nick Saban

by Jack @, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:05 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

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Or Paul William Bryant.

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:08 (2320 days ago) @ Jack

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Or Lynyrd Skynyrd

by NDinVA @, Yorktown, VA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:23 (2320 days ago) @ hobbs

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Jerry Falwell Jr. voiced his support for Moore

by irishvol @, Music City, USA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 14:36 (2320 days ago) @ NDinVA

by (incorrectly) quoting Skynyrd.

Someone will write a book about this special election someday. The whole thing in fascinatingly weird.

But only CERTAIN Skynyrd.

by MattG, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:26 (2320 days ago) @ irishvol

Definitely not Saturday Night Special.

Big Wheels Keep On Turning....

by NDinVA @, Yorktown, VA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:14 (2320 days ago) @ irishvol

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
But a lyric by the Grateful Dead seems appropriate here
"What A Long Strange Trip It's Been."

I'll bet you're relieved

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 15:10 (2320 days ago) @ irishvol

that they aren't anti-Semites -- they have a Jew for an attorney after all.

Bigger miracle?

by irishvol @, Music City, USA, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 19:37 (2320 days ago) @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

The oil, only enough for one night, instead lasted eight nights

Or

Moore lost

But zero for Neil Young.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 13:30 (2320 days ago) @ NDinVA

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