How should the Diaco issue be framed this week?

A. He needs a good game plan against Army to save his job.

B. Only another Navy-like debacle will cost him his job.

C. He's safe no matter what happens.

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If this defense looks as awful as it did against Navy, I think it will cost him his job. Particularly since he had claimed to have been prepping for it all season. (It still boggles my mind how you can prep for something all season and then 1) be so utterly ill prepared for the basics of what the other team is doing and 2) not have any fall back plan for if your first idea didn't work).

If he comes out and we win the game and the defense looks OK, he'll get another year. I think the defense has been the strength of the team this year. (Of course, that may be why we are staring down the barrel of a losing season.)

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Their worst performance was against Rutgers, where they scored 20 points (17 in regulation) and accumulated 289 yards on 59 carries on the ground (against Rutgers' -1 (!)). Hell, even Al Golden's vaunted Temple defense yielded 35 points.

I'd think B is the case.

Hopefully the defense puts in an effort for the ages, though.

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Actually, C1 "Fans on the internet need to calm down and realize that all coaches f up every now and then and that a switch in DCs after just one year is not in the best interests of the program, to wit Charlie's hiring of Tah-noo-tah and the rabid expectations that were quickly left unmet because a DC can't just come in and make everything better overnight even though the internet fans can go onto their Madden games and make everything better by hitting 'reset' and then starting fresh with a new team, so why don't we all (me included) just calm the hell down, watch the game, and understand that absent ol' blue-eyed Bobby molesting a collie at the 50-yard line at halftime his job is 'safe' for at least another year."

Not that I have a strong opinion about this or anything.

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Continuity is very important but if one of my key members of my management team has a glaring deficiency I very clearly state to him/her that he/she has it and that I've laid out a program to help them master the deficiency.

In this case I assume Kelly initially made a staff decision on Diaco from a well-reasoned and well-researched base. In general, the improvement in the defense has been enough, IMO, this year to warrant Kelly's trust....except for what was laid bare against Navy.

If a similar outcome crops up on Saturday when I do my performance review with Diaco (if I'm Kelly) I tell him he's on probation for the next year and here's is a detailed plan for how he's going to address his weakness. That may include spending whatever off time he has with Ara, Lou, Hayden, whoever is an option defense master. Whatever, it should be specific, clear and signed off on by Diaco.

I don't believe it to be good management practice to exile someone who, by most other metrics, appears to be a very competent member of my team save for a glaring blind spot. You won't find many quality replacements if your rep gets out in the brotherhood that you didn't give the guy a chance to address his weakness.

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If Diaco doesn't take steps to correct his failures this year, and if the product on the field next year does not show quantum leaps of improvement (because, as you noted, the resources exist for quantum leaps of improvement to take place), then we have a problem.

I take issue with the "hey, this is another option team; if he fails this time (even though it's just 4 weeks later), he should be fired" line of thought. I agree that he needs the spring and the chance to utilize the resources available to him.

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but I think the timeline should already be in play (and probably is). In other words, I would have put him on "triple option" notice immediately after the Navy loss, with the Army game to be his "opportunity to correct, and to prove himself." I wouldn't wait until the end of the season to put him on notice, especially when you've got a similar challenge coming up.

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quite demonstrative in his rebuke of Diaco for his Navy performance.

The only thing is, though, that I'm guessing Diaco's plate was full since that time. I'm not sure where one would go to address the issue given game prep for the ensuing games and then the recruiting responsibilities during the bye.

I imagine there'll be some changes in the plan but I'm skeptical that Diaco's job would be hanging based on a pretty hectic 3-4 weeks between option games.

But coaching is pretty cutthroat a profession and Kelly appears to be as ruthless as they get so perhaps Diaco's "self-improvement seminar" is in fact the month between games.

All things being equal I hope that Diaco does enough to warrant being allowed to continue. The idea of a new cog in the engine of a complete program renovation after only one year makes me queasy. If he is, indeed, sent packing I'd consider it a huge setback in the timeline that Kelly has to restore the program.

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because there obviously is a lot of downside to replacing him, as you and Greg have pointed out. Better for everyone that he proves himself, rather than putting BK in a tough spot.

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Read into that as you will.

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"You -- don't talk so much. Just smile and look smart."

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He says a lot of stupid shit in interviews.

(Yes, Greg, I agree that our defense has looked pretty good this year with the exception of Navy.)

EDIT: (And I'm definitely rooting for the guy.)

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Great-Utah (3 points allowed)

Good/Very good: BC (13); Purdue (12); Pitt (17)

Okay/not bad: Tulsa (14 allowed by the defense); WMU (20)

not great/bad: MSU (28 allowed in regulation); Michigan (28)

Ugly: Navy (35)*, Stanford (37)*

*could have been worse)

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These are ND's opponent-adjusted defensive performances (DFEI), best to worst, based on drive success efficiency:

Michigan
Utah
Stanford
Tulsa
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Michigan State
Western Michigan
Purdue
Navy

Holding Michigan to only 28 points on 16 possessions was the 8th best opponent-adjusted defensive performance in college football this year. Michigan's offense ranks 2nd nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency. Purdue's performance against the Wolverines this past weekend ranked 1st.

Giving up 35 points to Navy in only 6 possessions was the 47th worst opponent-adjusted defensive performance in college football this year (out of 1112 total performances). Navy's offense ranks 7th nationally.

Tags:
stats, defense

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And I'm willing to buy what you're selling, except for that Stanford ranking.

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If you look at Stanford's game log, our defense against them suddenly doesn't look as bad:

http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/team/674/total/offense/gamelog.html

Remember, too, they had a interception return for a TD, and we handed them a FG via a turnover on our own 15. Giving up 27 points (as opposed to 37) is decent (not great, but decent) against a team who's averaging nearly 40 ppg.

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Last season we were third worst on Stanford's schedule in yards per play (7.2). This year we're third best (5.3).

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(Not that it would have made a difference in this Off/Def rating business). Garbage time is definitely something that I need to examine more closely this year. But it isn't arbitrarily assigned. The interception itself sealed it. If Marecic fell down instead of trotting to the end zone, the outcome of the game was still decided.

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to your tables? I'm curious where our performance against Navy rates among all the performances against Navy to date.

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team specific rundowns each week. Here are the defensive performances against Navy this year:

4. Air Force
62. Maryland
248. SMU
258. Wake Forest
488. Duke
659. East Carolina
850. Central Michigan
862. Louisiana Tech
1065. Notre Dame

How in the world was East Carolina's 76-point defensive effort better than our 35-point defensive effort? We gave up 35 points on six Navy non-garbage drives. East Carolina gave up 55 points on ten Navy non-garbage drives (forced one punt and two field goals). Also, field position needs to be taken into account. An average offense against an average defense would have been expected to score 24 points on those ten Navy drives against ECU. On their six drives against us, an average team should have scored only 10 points.

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just how shitty we were against Navy on defense. It wasn't just the worst performance by us this year, it was the worst performance anybody had against Navy, too. By far.

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Or is there some score? I'd just like to see how much worse the WMU performance was than say the MSU game. Thanks!

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8. Michigan
122. Utah
147. Stanford
155. Tulsa
292. Pittsburgh
435. Boston College
455. Michigan State
627. Western Michigan
861. Purdue
1065. Navy

Here are our opponent-adjusted offensive numbers (OFEI), best to worst (with national rank):

81. Michigan State
190. Boston College
272. Utah
349. Pittsburgh
492. Western Michigan
543. Navy
601. Purdue
726. Stanford
806. Tulsa
975. Michigan

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So that's 7/10 performances better than median (556). Mean rank is 416.7 and median rank is 363.5. So the average defensive performance is definitely "above average" and is more typically in the upper third of performances. Given where the 2009 defense was, I'll take it.

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They've averaged 41 ppg in non-ND games. Keeping a team to one-third of their average rates better than "OK" in my book.

Also, while the MSU and UM results suck, we held both teams below their averages as well. Can their be a "meh" category for those two?

Navy is really the only failure, in my opinion (and, oh, what a failure).

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If Diaco had been shut out of the media glare after the Navy loss, we wouldn't have a host of quotes to pin to the "he's gotta go immediately" side of the ledger. I like that Kelly has him wrapped up -- and I think Gator would agree with what I'm about to say -- until Diaco can get some coaching in how to handle the media and what not to say and what kind of tone to have and how the ND-related media is a different animal than what he's seen before.

If Diaco had never uttered the no plan B statements, the image would not be as bad as it is. No matter the underlying truth of the statements (players who couldn't perform at all? limitations on other players driving us into certain schemes? something else entirely?), what came out was "I had no plan B when plan A failed." And that really doesn't cut it.

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While I was watching it, I was thinking (in my best Chris Farley), FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, QUIT DIGGING!

But they also exposed the truth of the situation. A classic Kinsley gaffe.

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Part of this equation is Kelly has to think what it might look like for him to go an embarrassing 0-4 against service academies his first two years.

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I guess that "modernizing their offense" thing they advertised a year or two ago never took.

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They fit the statistical profile anyways:

315.64 yards a game rushing, 5.45 ypc. Ironically, their passing game yields only 120.3 yards a game on 9.7 ypa. Given their talent level, they must either be running the triple option or some sort of spread variant a la Nebraska.

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The downside of Gator's plan is very risky to Kelly's tenure. If a guy can't figure out a triple option game plan in a month, when is he going to figure it out? If Kelly gives Diaco a full year to prove himself, and Diaco again falls on his face, likely there will be graver issues facing Kelly's tenure and he'll have a tough time selling anybody on the DC job since his third season would at that point be "do or die".

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and rightly so. There are more fish in the sea to run a productive defense than Bob Diaco, and I wouldn't fault Kelly for holding him accountable.

That said, I'm sure Kelly is more intimately involved in the defensive gameplan this week than he was against Navy, and isn't going to leave it up to Bobby D by himself. It sure sounds like it, anyway.

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were fun to watch, when he was getting questions about the response to their issues with Navy and looking ahead to Army. He's clearly choking some words down. I'd love to really know what they are. There's got to be a reason for trying to reinvent the way you defend the option, and I have a hard time believing the answer is "ego."

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game, and Diaco should be exiled. Seriously, I think there are people on this board who could've come up with a gameplan that would have worked better against Navy. Not one that would have worked well, but we were never close to stoping them while the game was competitive.

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Then we bring in a guy next year, and he's generally good but BC scores 48 and blows us out by running the ball between the tackles all day. So we fire him and hire a new guy. Then the next guy does well against the run and even beats Miami and SC but Oklahoma's spread option scores 63 against us. So we fire him and hire a new guy.

At what point do we actually let a guy have a second year instead of demanding firings?

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but let's not pretend that having a bad day against an elite offense like Oklahoma is the same as setting records for defensive futility against an opponent you're played over 80 times and has linemen the size of our linebackers.

You won't get a good defense in college if you change coordinators every year. But you won't win anything of note if you don't have a very capable DC on your staff.

The bigger issue with losing to Army would be that Diaco didn't learn and adapt from the Navy debacle. You don't fire him because of the Navy game alone. You fire him because he faced a lesser version of the same offense and made the same (or new) mistakes.

I think ND will be drastically different and improved against Army, but Diaco still needs to show us he's up to it.

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and I've largely liked what I've seen from the defense this year. I want nothing more than for him to figure the triple option out and come back next year with a lights out defense.

If we get embarrassed by Army and Navy, though, that outcome is inexcusable and it probably wouldn't bode well for Kelly to excuse it.

On the flip side, if we look good on Saturday against the option (particularly sans Ian Williams) it will assuage 50% or so of my lingering nausea from the Navy game.

The caveat here is if the offense 2009's us and turns the ball over like crazy.

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and nearly 400 yards rushing (again), his credibility would be shot anyway. Why would you want him around? We play Navy every year. You can't exactly bring in an option specialist and send Diaco to the Keys for vacation for Navy week.

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I've seen the idea of hiring a guy on staff who "specializes in defending the option." Not a DC, just a staff member to help out.

Um, those people don't exist.

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I'd much rather have a guy on staff with some NFL experience who has a focus on general game prep. Of course, that guy may already be on campus in the form of Bill Lewis. I have no idea what is role in the Athletic Department is, but I wonder if he's a resource the coaching staff could tap into, at least from a game prep perspective.

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When you only get the ball 4-5 times per half, you need to make hay while the sun shines. You can't be throwing those possessions away on cheap interceptions.

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Maybe I can get Mike J. to weigh in. I haven't watched a single snap by Army since our game against them in '06, so I have no idea if their attack mirrors Navy's or if it uses a different set of plays and strategies out of the triple option.

As for Diaco, I'd like to see him hold Army to under their season offensive averages (<5.18 ypp, leading to <31 ppg), as opposed to higher, as he did for Navy.

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I have no idea what the offense looks like outside of this video

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That's one notable (and obvious) difference between army and navy.

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the Polo Grounds

How should the Diaco issue be framed this week?

B....

Probably C. He merits a second year at this point.

Army has a pretty solid offense, actually

C

I agree with an asterisk

I am with you completely

I think that approach is correct

I'm sure that Kelly was

I really hope he acquits himself well

Diaco is off-limits to the media again the week

cue Bobbi Fleckman

My take:

Awfully inconsistent year

My numbers rate ND's defensive performances differently

You have put a lot more thought into this than I did

"opponent adjusted" is the key

Compare to 2009

Also, their last 10 points were "garbage time" per my data.

you're pretty generous with the garbage time!

Feel a little bad for taking away Marecic's pick-6 ... nah.

do you have a link

This game rank stuff isn't posted, no. I do a few

thanks. really puts into stark relief

And there are some shitty ass teams on that list

what's the overall rank for each of those

Here you go

great, thanks

Yep, ND ranks 41st this week in overall DFEI.

I'd move Tulsa into the "Good/Very Good" column

my take as well

I think he does too, and that certainly has not helped Kelly

his comments made it worse, however--

Agreed.

Agreed.

We play Air Force and Navy next year

Is air force a 3 options team still?

I thought Airforce was downright pass happy by comparison

117th is Passing O. 2nd in Rushing.

Yep

without watching any of their film I will guess they are

exactly

if he doesn't improve on Navy, he'll be in trouble

Kelly's comments in the presser today...

If we don't improve on Navy, we have 0 chance to win this

OK, so we lose and fire Diaco

everyone has a bad day at the office

Don't get me wrong, I'm a Diaco fan

Harrumph.

if he gives up 35 points to an option team (again)

"option specialist"

You know anyone who can fix my tape deck?

I think that's why Lou was on campus last week. No?

This is how rumors happen.

that's ridiculous

our offense needs to help as well

I'd like to know more about Army's offense (more)

youtube video from before the 2010 season began

more footage

They use a lot of split back formation.