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Who do you want?

by Kevin @, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:46

This era is done. Who should ND hire?

Tags:
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I think we should quit football.

by KGB, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 10:04 @ Kevin

I'm basically done with all of this.

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Theo needs a challenge

by JN @, Seattle, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 21:47 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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A non CEO head coach.

by Chris @, Raleigh, NC, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:06 @ Kevin

A guy that holds assistants responsible & oversees them on a daily basis.
Scott Booker can kiss my ass; as soon as Brian Go Fuck Yourself Kelly is done.

---
"F--- everyone who isn't us."
#Team128

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We have to hire a monster

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:25 @ Kevin

Kick the can with him until you have a beast in the bag.

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Petrino

by Grantland @, y'allywood, Monday, November 07, 2016, 07:27 @ HumanRobot

[ No text ]

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Hard pass

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Monday, November 07, 2016, 07:32 @ Grantland

[ No text ]

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I had the same reaction a couple of weeks ago.

by Grantland @, y'allywood, Monday, November 07, 2016, 07:43 @ Jim (fisherj08)

I am sick of this crap.

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he is a monster, though

by Mike (bart), Monday, November 07, 2016, 07:35 @ Jim (fisherj08)

[ No text ]

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We're losing the "kick the can" luxury, i think

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:25 @ HumanRobot

The program is getting worse, not better. Or, rather, the "floor" Kelly built was a lot less sturdy than even his biggest detractors thought it was. You don't have a strong program if you're liable to experience a 3-6 start against a terrible schedule, owed to no particular cause or misfortune.

If we aren't building or maintaining a strong program we may as well kick the can with someone else

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I guess

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:41 @ Mike (bart)

I don't see where hiring Ruhle (or replacement level coach) takes us.

For the first time in a long time I do feel like a monster takes this program to the top. I would have some concerns that a Ruhle type could be a step backwards.

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Removes us from our current predicament

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:56 @ HumanRobot

Kelly is failing but retains some worthwhile arguments in favor of his retention. As Kevin and TC pointed out, if we keep him after this year and he goes back to 8-5, doesn't he then become more difficult to fire?

A decent blank slate coach carries (imo) at least as much upside chance of catching lightning in a bottle (to be clear, I think this chance is in gross terms very small), and it gives us a free hand moving forward

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I don't get this nihilism

by HullieAndMikes, Joe Turner's bookcase, ALHS, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:34 @ Mike (bart)

It's one thing to think BK needs to be fired and there are guys out there right now we can hire to get ND a championship. It's another to just want someone new for the sake of new, even If they are just as likely to be mediocre. And then, what, fire them all after two years when we get bored again?

Maybe I'm misreading you, but that seems like a really bad idea. If we're moving on we should move on because whoever we can get is who we believe can get ND to 14-0. I have no idea who that is, but I'm open to hearing names.

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Don't think it's nihilism. And what's wrong with what you

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:43 @ HullieAndMikes

Laid out? What do we lose? Money? How can it be worse than right now? We will grab at least a decent coach now who will bring hope and excitement and if by some miracle a great coach is grabable ( who our ad should always be trying to hire no matter what is going on) so what? With coaching salaries what they are, why should we do otherwise?

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I think it's cavalier to become a revolving door

by HullieAndMikes, Joe Turner's bookcase, ALHS, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:53 @ Turtlecrack

That would leave the program perpetually unsettled, from offensive and defensive philosophies to rebooting recruiting classes.

FWIW, I view this as a separate issue than whether Kelly himself should stay or go. It's related, insofar as "different" holds no value if it isn't also better.

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Maybe I'm way off on this

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 20:00 @ HullieAndMikes

But with respect to recruiting, I would suggest that making the move this year would be preferable to next year. Most of the guys in the 2017 class are probably going to stick, and this was already heading in the direction of a smaller class. It helps that the current frosh class is playing well and producing, so 2017 guys wouldn't need to contribute for a few years, and could be recruited over, potentially.

Making the move now would allow the new coach to work hard to keep the 2018 kids the staff has already contacted/recruited vs. possibly seeing those kids jump ship during a lame duck Kelly season and ending up with 2 mediocre recruiting classes in a row (which can keep a program down for 2-3 years, as we've seen).

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When Kelly was hired what ND needed was stability

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:58 @ HullieAndMikes

So, while I don't think any performance issues in the first 2 seasons came anywhere near warranting firing, even if I had thought that I would have been very against firing Kelly.

It is Year 7 now, though. We are long past the point where "Stability of Tenure" offers any independent benefits for the program, especially considering that "Stability of Team Quality" is non-existent.

We have one of the longest tenured coaches in FBS. We are a full Sarkisian away from revolving door concerns becoming an issue

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It has been 7 years, we've probably passed "revolving door"

by mkmcfrlnd, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:57 @ HullieAndMikes

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You guys misread me

by HullieAndMikes, Joe Turner's bookcase, ALHS, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 03:45 @ mkmcfrlnd

I specifically said this had nothing to do with the wisdom of keeping BK himself. I'm not trying to convince anybody of that.

My point was the apparent willingness to trade mediocries just because one would be different is bizarre. Apparently TC is ok with that, as last as we have a quick yank with the new guy. You guys are talking about Step 1, my point is on Step 2.

I think that's weird.

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Who do we want coaching against Harbaugh?

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 12:48 @ HullieAndMikes

[ No text ]

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I have no idea

by HullieAndMikes, Joe Turner's bookcase, ALHS, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 12:55 @ HumanRobot

And am not going to pretend to know. Right now, from BK to every theoretical replacement short of Urban or Saban, I don't see a definitive answer.

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a quick yank

by Turtlecrack, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 05:28 @ HullieAndMikes

not sure that's what I was looking for. In any event, my point isn't that I want to churn coaches. I'm just saying I think we can definitely upgrade now, and that doesn't necessarily mean we are stuck with that coach for 7 years. If by some miracle a mr perfect becomes available (Saban or urban) we can always fire whomever we have now. Chances are that's not going to happen though so why stay in this bad relationship?

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That's why I'm no longer on board with

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:00 @ Mike (bart)

"Give him 2017 and make the choice then." 2012 and even 2015 Kelly is gone. The coaching staff is completely broken. Sure, excising BVG from the team made things better, but players aren't developing, mistakes aren't being corrected, growth (apart from the freshmen) isn't being realized.

Its pretty exciting to think about the deadcat bounce that any new coach would experience with some of the talent on this roster.

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Exactly. I think we collectivelyfeel like if we make a move

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:49 @ Mike (bart)

We are stuck for another 7 years. This isn't the point you were making mike but.... Why? These coaches are very well paid and that's the nature of the biz now. If we replace Kelly and a Saban or urban shows up...and our current coach is just ok...fire them in year 2 or 3. I'm tired of trying to be tasteful. This is a big business. I don't want to be a football factory but wrt to coaches we need to make decisions that are "big boy."

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I think we have to start from the premise...

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:12 @ HumanRobot

that you can't plan on landing a monster. The only thing you can plan on is hiring the best coach possible when keeping the current coach is no longer tenable. We're about to reach that point, if we haven't already.

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I don't think there's a clear-cut candidate.

by Bill, Southern California, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:14 @ Kevin

My first call would be to Urban Meyer to see if I could pry him away from Ohio State to face his destiny. But that's obviously a long shot.

That said, I'd hate to see Kelly go in to 2017 with a 'lame duck' collar around his neck. That would really tank recruiting going forward. We've got a pretty good class in place now, and we can probably hold most of them with a quick coaching change and quality hire by Swarbrick.

I guess Mike MacIntyre would be the 'most likely' at this point. Given what we're seeing from Kelly, it is probably worth the roll of the dice.

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There's not

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Monday, November 07, 2016, 08:38 @ Bill

And every shitty hire just makes it worse and I don't have a favorite candidate right now that doesn't seem like a pipe dream (Meyer or Peterson). Even Chip Kelly is kind of scary if the field has caught up to his innovations.

I mean, maybe PJ Fleck is a greatest thing since sliced bread. Or maybe not.

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There may be some uncertainty about the replacement

by Kevin @, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:12 @ Bill

But we know we have a failed coach. He's had second, third, fourth chances. He's got to go. There are other options worth trying, none of whom have gone 3-9 against this wreck of a schedule.

This year has been bad from the start -- how much time do they need to think about succession? if they're not ready for this, they need a new AD, too.

The one other thing that confuses me is why he'd need to hit any certain mark next year. If he survives this, he might as well serve at his pleasure, forever. Because if not now, when and why would they ever pull the trigger?

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I suppose if your standard is no more hires till you have

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:40 @ Kevin

A star coach in hand. If you take that approach, we should fire him even if he starts 7-0 if one of those someone can be landed. The problem with that is, we'd never do that. You have to fire him when he is begging for it. Like now.

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You both bring up good points

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:19 @ Turtlecrack

There isn't going to be a "cleaner" time to part ways with Kelly than after this season. I think the smart thing to do is make the move...you're hitting the point where the downside risk on a new hire failing is less and less scary.

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BK for 2017. Less than 10-3, then I want Peterson.

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:28 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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Why?

by Kevin @, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:41 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

[ No text ]

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Don't think we can get a replacement this winter

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:49 @ Kevin

that will be an upgrade over continuity + new DC + starters.

I don't think Herman would choose us/am unsure that he's legit. Don't think Peterson will leave Washington after the season they're going to have. Anyone who thinks a Meyer/Saban/Stoops/Harbaugh/Sweeney-level coach will leave what they've got is delusional.

In short, I'll take BK + our returning players over who I think we can get this offseason, despite all of BK's fuck-ups this year.

I hope Texas craters and BK hires Strong as DC.

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If this offense were humming along...

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:19 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

I might agree with you. But it's not. The offense has clearly regressed this season, and I no longer trust Kelly to build an elite offense or defense, not to mention the cluster that is special teams.

We're going to finish 4-8, and Kelly will have no credibility left. If Mike MacIntyre is the floor, then let's go get a new coach. We're not getting Peterson no matter when we're hiring.

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ND had the #6 OFEI in 2015

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:30 @ BPH

Colorado's best offense under MacIntyre is this year at #33. No other year better than #76. At SJSU in 2012 they were #15. 2011 and 2010 were both worse than #100.

I wouldn't make that trade. And I agree that the offense is very poor this year.

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In fairness

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:35 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

Kelly is an offensive coach. MacIntyre is a defensive coach. And he has worked defensive miracles at multiple stops. I'm just impressed by him as a program builder and overall program leader. If Colorado finishes at least 9-3, I'll be sold.

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Save 2016, his defenses as a HC have been bad

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 13:46 @ BPH

SJSU
2010 - #110
2011 - #61
2012 - #31

Colorado
2013 - #95
2014 - #103
2015 - #68
2016 - #5

Are his defensive miracles only at other stops as a DC? Or are we considering his three-year improvement tracks as the turnarounds? His first year at a school is remarkably similar to the year preceding it on both offense and defense.

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You are ignoring some important stats...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:36 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

namely that he took over some programs that were in the absolute fucking dumps. SJSU had something like 3 winning seasons in 2 decades before he showed up. He flipped their record in those 3 years. 2-10 to 10-2.

You are also ignoring some pretty strong trends in those numbers. His defenses have essentially gotten better every single year save one.

I don't think he is Jim Harbaugh, but he's clearly a very good coach. I think the question is could he handle the meat grinder that is ND? At this point, its worth a shot because our current coach has proven without a doubt he cannot.

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I'm not ignoring any of those things (edited re UC)

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:31 @ Mobster

In fact I made explicit reference to them in my questions to BPH below the stats. I noted the three-year turn around times (four years at CU so CU) and the similarities between year 0 and year 1 at each of his stops. My question re his DC tenures was discussed by BPH in his post below.

You say that "he's clearly a good coach" but do we have evidence of that? BK took us to the 'ship in his third year. He turned around CMU and expanded on Dantonio's platform at UC to new heights in his time there too. Do we have the data points on Mac yet such that we're not getting into another BK? If it's gonna be another BK, why not keep BK?

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He very well could be another BK...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:41 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

but its a separate question / decision logic to me.

1) Has BK's performance warranted retention? The answer here is clearly no.

2) Is there a replacement that offers an upgrade? The answer here is more difficult to answer and, I believe, requires one to take an educated chance. Mac could be another Kelly. hell, he could be worse. But at this point, I think we have to take a chance on the devil we don't know because the devil we do know just isn't cutting it. We have a bunch of people making a ton of money to educate themselves and bring in an upgrade. It's time to earn that money.

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POO re: "could be another Kelly"

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:29 @ Mobster

I think it's important to note that there are easily imagined universes in which it really worked out well for BK at ND. There was bad luck, there were mistakes, there were missed opportunities and bad decisions, but with a couple of things having gone differently it could have been a triumphant era.

It wasn't, but it isn't as though this was an inevitable result

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I need a Yes/Yes in your two questions to make a move

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:55 @ Mobster

It's a Yes/No right now for me because I don't think there's an upgrade over what BK has achieved in 2012 and 2015 that we can get in this offseason.

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Last year was nothing special.

by Kevin @, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 08:42 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

They should have been a playoff team, but they beat no one and lost convincingly in their bowl game.

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We lost to every good team we played.

by KGB, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 10:09 @ Kevin

If that's someone's fucked-up idea of success, I'll show myself out now.

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You guys are nuts

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 11:20 @ KGB

I mean that in the most jocular way possible, not as an insult.

ND has one stated goal each year: The national championship. They failed at achieving that goal. The season wasn't a success. Noting that does not make me better or worse than anyone else.

I'm not a part of the team. I never have been and I never will be. All I've ever been and will ever be is an observer and a fan. The team's failure to achieve its ultimate goal is not my failure. Nor are its successes my successes. The most I can do is enjoy the ride.

If you didn't enjoy last year's season, then I think it's going to be a long time before you enjoy ND football again, if ever. I hope that's not the case.

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I'm going to start banging a drum..

by mkmcfrlnd, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:18 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

..that if we replace Kelly this year it's going to be Miles.

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Pretty sure he produced historically good defenses at Duke

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:00 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

As for his head coaching stops, I consider even a multi year turnaround to be borderline miraculous considering the state of the programs he inherited. We're talking similar to what Harbaugh took over at Stanford, if not worse.

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His turnarounds look a bit like BK's

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:36 @ BPH

He turned trash into decent football teams at two stops.

BK turned trash into a decent football team at CMU. He took 8-4 UC to 34-4. He took the Weis ND teams to the 'ship in 2012.

I'm not sure he's an upgrade and probably don't want to take that plunge with all we've got returning next year.

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I'm not sure he's an upgrade either

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:41 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

But I'm confident enough to roll the dice. In any event, I'm done with Kelly and am ready for almost anything different. I guess that's where we differ.

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Someone who can count to eleven

by HCE, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:02 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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We've got another year of the smartest guy in the world...

by MTIrish, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:00 @ Kevin

He'll do enough to hang on after that, probably surrounded by the same characters who can't get 11 men on the field for a punt or for goal line defense.

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What happened on that penalty?

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:04 @ MTIrish

I was chasing my kid around and missed the play. Weird to get 12 men in a punting situation...feel like you're a lot more likely to have fewer guys than you need than more

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Could not get the 12th guy off...

by MTIrish, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:08 @ Mike (bart)

Mystery as to why there were 12 guys to start with.

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Not that it matters now but the ACC

by PMan, The Banks of the Spokane River, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:40 @ MTIrish

crew might have messed up. The play was not reviewable in the booth if the 12th man was outside the numbers and going out of bounds, and the on-field crew did not throw a flag, apparently.

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Is this enough for Nd to fire him?

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:56 @ Kevin

Who do you want? Is there anyone ready to renter who is taking a break right now? Where is our urban?

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I'm okay with giving him another year.

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:08 @ Turtlecrack

Unless Saban or Meyer wants to come to ND, I'm okay with sticking with Kelly. But I care a lot less about ND football than I used to.

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3-7 in the last 10 games.

by PMan, The Banks of the Spokane River, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:05 @ Slainte Joe

7-8 over the last 15.
11-9 over the last 20 games.
14-11 over the last 25.

Not trending nicely.

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14-13 in last 27

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:10 @ PMan

Fun with random endpoints is depressing.

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Ditto

by Mark, Cloud City, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:52 @ Slainte Joe
edited by Mark, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 16:02

I really doubt ND will be able to hire a better coach.

And, even more than that, I doubt ND will be able to get a better AD than Swarbrick.


ND's very young this season and it shows. I'm pretty confident they could be a 9 or 10 win team next season. Who's graduating and leaving? Jarron Jones, anyone else?


EDIT: I looked it up ... the following players are done after this season:

Isaac Rochelle
Jarron Jones
James Onwaulu
Avery Sebastien
(Max Redfield)
Cole Luke
Devin Butler

So, the offense should be a lot better and ND's defense will probably have better LBs and DBs in 2017. DL may be a mess.

---
"After more than a decade of sub-par red zone TD efficiency... wait ... what? ... Hold on!"

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Are you enjoying this season?

by OGerry @, Maine wilderness, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:37 @ Mark
edited by OGerry, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:41

A lot better still sucks barnacles off Niumatalolo's hull.

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Me too

by OGerry @, Maine wilderness, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:51 @ Slainte Joe

As long as we fire Swarbrick this year. Then Kelly next.

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I simply don't understand this.

by Bingo @, Fort Wayne, IN, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 14:59 @ OGerry

Why fire Swarbrick who has proven himself over and over again of being a high quality AD. He navigated the waters beautifully during a real troublesome time when everyone was hopping conferences. Other than the football program, every other program is performing at or above expectations. His Kelly hire was completely understandable, he was clearly the best coach available and it's not like he's been an outright disaster. He took us to a NC game in year three and up until this year and avoided disastrous season. In my opinion Swarbrick is the guy that you want to make the next hire.

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The football program is our crown jewel...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:28 @ Bingo

it, quite simply, is the most important thing about his job. Failing to make a successful move this offseason will be a damning indictment of his tenure.

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Exactly.

by OGerry @, Maine wilderness, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 17:36 @ Mobster

"Other than the football program, every other program is performing at or above expectations."

Other than that, Mrs. Harbaugh, how was the evening?

If he doesn't shitcan Kelly, it's absolute proof he needs to be shitcanned in favor of a person who will.

Irrefutable logic. What's there not to understand?

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Irrefutable logic?

by Eric M, Western New York, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:21 @ OGerry

What do we gain by "showing the world" that this isn't good enough? What magical bonus points will we earn by "holding people accountable" for the current situation?

Will Rockne pop out of his grave and deliver 20 5-stars because we upheld our rich historical standards?

Nailing the next hire is concern 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.

If it happens in 13 months instead of 6 weeks it doesn't REALLY matter that we waited. What the heck is one additional year? These seasons fly by in the blink of an eye.

1) Are things so bad we need to make a move ASAP?

2) Are we more likely to hire a better coach next year?

These are the two most important questions. Now, I understand that for some people the first question overrides everything and that it causes a feeling that something needs to be done in a few weeks.

But, it's not an indictment if Swarbrick doesn't make a move. It's really proof of nothing.

Just like in late 2008, Jack has taken heat for not firing Weis when he first became AD. It was seen as some egregious error on his part. I mean, did it really matter? He took an extra year and moved on.

Hypothetically, if Jack waits another year but brought in Urban Meyer would that still mean he deserved to be fired a year earlier?

Personally, I think we are far, far, far, far, more likely to hire a better coach after next year. Reasonable minds may disagree.

We were -148 in points and -1.3 YPP in 2007 yet we were in the National Championship game 5 years later. This season has been terrible but I'm not too hung up on the program being in such a terrible place that we can't take some time to make sure we shoot straight and steady with a replacement.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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Stone cold lock. Hermetically sealed...erm...hermit.

by OGerry @, Maine wilderness, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 11:31 @ Eric M

Kelly has failed at his job. Nothing personal, but he needs to go. The AD needs to replace him. If Swarbrick can't manage to do that job competently, then he should be replaced by someone who can.

It seems like perhaps you'd even agree with all of that, except you think this year all of the circumstances are against us. Next year, though, there will be a confluence of good cosmic vibes events that will sweep away our current obstacles and make clearer the path to a good hire.

The problems of now usually seem worse against the hope of tomorrow's being better. Except it is, to borrow from you, a fantasy land chimera. There's no good time to hire a coach. We'll face obstacles just as thorny next year. Putting it off just damns the team to a year of marking time, which is a piss poor disservice to them.

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Why is ND more likely to make a good hire next year?

by Rob, Buffalo, NY, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:20 @ Eric M

[ No text ]

---
"I find it hard to believe the average Iranian or Russian is worse than the average Michigan fan."

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Hmmm

by Eric M, Western New York, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:46 @ Rob

1) Showing SOME patience with a coach will be more attractive to potential candidates.

2) We'll be better next year, therefore more attractive.

3) Having a bounce back year (the degree we can debate) will help out the perception that things can improve quickly.

4) The handful of candidates I think would work well either could use another year of seasoning or will be in much better positions to poach a year down the road.

5) This has nothing to do with Jack being prepared or not prepared but I don't think many around the country thought this job would be opening up this December and buying some time will be beneficial to make some moves in a deal that requires a crap ton of luck.

6) To go with #5 above someone like Chris Petersen (my #1 guy) just inherently isn't someone who WANTS to coach at Notre Dame. There will be a lot of candidates, especially among the proven P5 guys who feel that way. Taking some time to grease those wheels and rearrange the cards to make them feel comfortable and sell them on the idea is fine by me.

It's a complicated matter and a complex road of negotiations. Six months ago I probably wouldn't have said someone like Chris Petersen should be a #1 type of target therefore I don't blame anyone if they need to spend time adjusting their plans and making new moves given the current situation. It's simply not about Jack pushing or not pushing a button.

Too often, we go into this type of stuff falsely thinking Jack needs to prove something to us. About 95% of his job in this situation is convincing people with no affinity or love for Notre Dame to come here and I think people lose sight of that quite often.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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Uhh 5 and 6 are signs that JS isn't prepared...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 20:37 @ Eric M

I'm not sure what 5 says other than, we didn't think this would happen so we need some time to get our minds right and prepare. 6 is precisely what should have been happening all along. JS or any good AD should be maintaining relationships with potential replacements. Note I'm not saying they go out for drinks in a public place but his ass needs to be at making connections through whatever means are available (coaching conventions, speaking engagements, charities, etc.). A significant part of his job should be to meet and make cultivate a network of coaches (even if that means through intermediaries) that he may want to hire someday. That means doing precisely what you are arguing he hasn't been doing. Making them feel comfortable with a job that may or may not eventually open up. This happens all the time in every industry.

As to your other points:
1) We are in year 7. This isn't letting a guy go before he had a chance to do his job. This is letting a guy go for failing at his job. Coaches know the score. They produce or they are gone. I think all any good coach would want is a fair shake to make the program his. 7 years proves we have done that IMO.

2) Not sure I agree. Remember we were a consensus preseason top 10 this year. We could be better, but we could also be a complete shit show. Lets not forget we are likely losing our best player on offense (Kizer), a good chunk of our OL (McGlinchey and Nelson), and our two best DL (Rochelle and Jones). I'm not seeing a ton of talent waiting in the wings to replace alot of that. I think its 50-50 that we'll be significantly worse next year. BUT, lets presume you are right. A good coach wouldn't look at the prior years results but rather how he is set up to perform when he is coaching, so the question isn't, how will we be next year, its how will we be 2 years from now. I would think given this years turd of a recruiting class paired with whatever a lame duck coach can pull next year would put us in a worse position for most coaches considering taking the job.

3) I think Kelly was successful at removing alot of the stigma around ND. But as I mention above, another year could just dig the hole deeper not make it shallower.

4) I'm actually interested in this. Specifically, who you got your eyes on. Fleck? MacIntyre? I can understand the rationale, but I think that to hire a great coach we're going to have to beat the market a bit. Seasoning can potentially lower the risk of a hire but it can also make the probability of a hire much lower.

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You must not understand

by Eric M, Western New York, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 21:15 @ Mobster
edited by Eric M, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 21:18

That means doing precisely what you are arguing he hasn't been doing.

Again, I haven't said Jack isn't prepared. That's your belief.

You're trying to convince me that he hasn't done ANY preparation? Like, any at all?

My points re #5 and #6 is that a lot of this is outside of Swarbrick's control. I would think this would be common sense but you're framing this like Jack has omniscient power to bend the craziness of college football to his will and he's simply caught off guard after fiddling away in his office for 7 years because he loves Kelly.

Swarbrick could be maintaining relationships and doing everything he should be doing but it doesn't guarantee the situation is where he wants it to be. He might have 3 guys he's really hot on but if they won't jump right now but he has some belief one of them will come aboard next year, well, that's the way shit goes sometimes.

To address your replies...

1) I don't disagree. I wouldn't care if Kelly was replaced this December. I just think we'll be in a much better position of power to make a move next year.

2) I'm not surprised you don't think we'll be better next year. We'll probably return our entire OL and about 17.5 starters with just about everyone in the two and three-deep. I do agree there are some entertaining thoughts in favor of making a move now if that were to happen.

3) I really doubt we'll be worse.

4) I don't think I have some golden list to share. But I think for most of the candidates a strong case can be made that we can poach them a year from now, rather than right now.

Regarding Petersen, there's just no way he'd leave Washington at the end of this year. After 2017, Browning might be going pro, he'll be losing a lot starters, and he MIGHT feel like he's reached his ceiling at UW after 4 years. Jack could've been wooing him for 3 years in some form or another and at the end of the day there's only so much he can do while dealing with all of the moving parts in front of him.

That's all I really mean to say. Couching things in terms of Jack being prepared or not prepared is hilariously too simplistic.

That's why I think you're kind of sounding the alarm that next year will be just as bad as this year for ND. Because it adds more weight to the "we have to make a move now" movement.

I don't agree that the odds are likely that we'll be just as bad next year, and even more, I don't agree that if Jack waits that it means he's not prepared.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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You can't have it both ways...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 22:13 @ Eric M

He can't both be performing adequately at his job and need more time to source a suitable kelly replacement.

Of course I don't believe that JS has done nothing to prepare for a situation like we find ourselves in. BUT At some point a continuum of "preparedness" boils down to a binary decision. I fire kelly or I don't. If we presume that Kelly's performance warrants firing (which I thought we agreed) then the only thing preventing a firing is the ability to hire a suitable replacement. If you are saying (in points 5 and 6) that, in fact, he cannot hire a good replacement this year, then by default you are saying he is not prepared to fire Kelly. Whether he does some prep or none is largely irrelevant when the outcome of either is the same. He can't be preparing adequately yet also be unable to act here. The two situations can't coexist IMO.

I never framed this in the way you are saying. I simply stated that Jack's job is to be ready to hire a suitable replace in the event that our coach needs to be replaced. Going all the way back to the comment that started this subthread, if he needs a year to make that happen, then he is not performing adequately in his job. I was willing to give him some leeway when he was first hired and Weis was aboard. That was his first year on the job and it would be unrealistic to expect him to have laid the groundwork to adequately source a replacement in that time. he's now been here 8 years.... with a coach that has openly interviewed for other jobs in the past. with a coach that has had 2 double digit win seasons in his 6 prior years here. This season may have caught us by surprise, but the need to potentially replace our coach quickly simply should not be a surprise. If he isn't ready to replace a coach this year, he is, by definition, not performing in the most important role of his job.

But hey, thats just like my opinion man.

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Notice

by Eric M, Western New York, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 22:46 @ Mobster

How you didn't bring up one word about things outside of Jack's control?

If we presume that Kelly's performance warrants firing (which I thought we agreed) then the only thing preventing a firing is the ability to hire a suitable replacement.

No! It's not "the only thing." And there's a crap ton of gray area when discussing a "suitable" replacement.

He can't be preparing adequately yet also be unable to act here.

The only people who believe this don't want to deal with all of the complex issues surrounding hiring a new coach. It's a fantasy land.

I never framed this in the way you are saying.

Funny, I'd say the same thing!

I simply stated that Jack's job is to be ready to hire a suitable replace in the event that our coach needs to be replaced.

And you have what evidence that he isn't doing his job, exactly?

Anyway, that's not what you simply stated. You're trying to say that if Swarbrick doesn't fire Kelly now then he isn't prepared.

And I'm not having it both ways. Jack COULD find a suitable replacement in December. I just think it's less likely than next year largely due to forces outside of Jack being "ready" and for which you continue to not want to discuss.

Honestly, if you're this hell bent on making Jack look inept you're probably better off going with the "He's too tied to Kelly" line of thinking.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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It isn't about scoring "magical bonus points"...

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:44 @ Eric M
edited by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:49

it's about making Notre Dame a high performing organization. The logic you describe is precisely what has paved the road to our current predicament.

If Jack is not ready to fire a coach at any time, it clearly shows he hasn't been doing his job. We can't rationalize waiting another year to allow our AD to be better prepared when that is precisely his fucking job. What if instead of this shit sandwich of a season, Kelly was caught with a dead girl or a live boy. JS would have to hire a new coach this year. Would you be willing to give him a pass for being unprepared in that situation? I sure as shit wouldn't.

My point is that a significant part of the job of the Notre Dame athletic director is to be prepared to fire and hire a football coach at all times. Hell it should be responsibility 1 - 50.
If he isn't prepared to fire Kelly and hire a suitable replacement this year..... any year, then he himself should be relieved of his duties. If we don't hold people accountable to perform the most important function of their job, then what the fuck are we doing?

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Or a heart attack or a lightning bolt or Bruno beat the

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:17 @ Mobster

Out of him

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Who said Jack isn't prepared?

by Eric M, Western New York, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:16 @ Mobster

I know I didn't.

I'm not giving him a pass, either. Especially on those grounds. I'm not buying into the dumb ass trope that "he doesn't have a list!" or that he's not prepared to make a move if needed.

He'd have to be the biggest moron in college athletics and his moves as AD don't warrant that. Anyway, how could anyone prove he isn't prepared?

You read all of what I wrote and you want to argue that Jack isn't prepared? Sounds like a huge waste of time to me.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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If he is prepared, why would he not make a move?

by Mobster, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:25 @ Eric M

being prepared isn't about "having a list."

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Maybe the negotiations are just starting

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 19:28 @ Mobster

[ No text ]

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The problem regarding questions 1 and 2, though

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:28 @ Eric M

Is that a person in charge of making those decisions has a vested interest in the probabilities assigned to each answer being low. Like, it is always possible to convince one's self that we aren't that bad, and it is easy to think the odds will be higher of hiring a better coach next year.

I don't claim to have an answer as to the next hire but I think we are wasting our time with Kelly at this point, and retaining him is not a benign option, but instead several notches worse than that.

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Right. If he knows he is gone, isn't that going to fester

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:33 @ Mike (bart)

And rot from within? How can we expect him to give his all?

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That was very good and very on point.

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 18:10 @ OGerry

[ No text ]

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I can understand why that's the case

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:13 @ Slainte Joe

Just underscores how many disappointments we've borne since graduating

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It's been a shitty 25 years.

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:45 @ Turtlecrack

But honestly—and I hate to give them credit for this—it was Michigan 2011 that broke me. I've been able to achieve a level of detachment since that game that I never imagined I could muster. Probably the straw that broke the camel's back, but that was definitely the moment when I started caring less.

So if we fire Kelly? Okay. If we keep him? That's fine too.

Oh well.

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I agree

by Greg, the 'Dena, Sunday, November 06, 2016, 16:26 @ Slainte Joe

But honestly—and I hate to give them credit for this—it was Michigan 2011 that broke me. I've been able to achieve a level of detachment since that game that I never imagined I could muster. Probably the straw that broke the camel's back, but that was definitely the moment when I started caring less.

I don't know whether it's a bad thing or a good thing. But that night, after a bunch of heartbreaking losses in the decade or so prior, and maybe because it was them, and surely because my kids were of a certain age and my life was in just the position it was in, that loss snapped something. I haven't been as rabid since, and I don't think I ever will be. I'm a lot happier in general. But I don't think I'll weep tears of joy if and when ND ever hits the mountaintop again.

---
#asshat

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And if yes, any reason to wait on firing?

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:03 @ Turtlecrack

[ No text ]

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You dont need Urban Meyer to beat 3-6

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:58 @ Turtlecrack

Remember, we got more or less pasted by MSU, who is currently losing to Illinois

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I don't need, I want! It's my turn to get lucky timin like

by Turtlecrack, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:00 @ Mike (bart)

Michigan and Ohio state.

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The rest of the bandaid was just ripped off.

by Pat, Right behind you, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:53 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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An AD willing to cancel the Navy series for a while.

by PMan, The Banks of the Spokane River, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:51 @ Kevin

Or, at least to get them on a rotating schedule with the other academies.

No upside to playing them at all; can't buy a holding call, and everybody's knees will be thankful.

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Everyone except Kelly knew it was over when he kicked the fg

by suave_andrew, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:51 @ Kevin

[ No text ]

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It would have been over even if we scored a TD.

by ReginaldVelJohnson @, (FaytlND), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:00 @ suave_andrew

That's the most disheartening part. We simply were incapable of getting them off the field on D. Whether through their own execution or our own fuck ups.

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Very open minded

by Mike (bart), Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:51 @ Kevin

McIntyre is my latest flavor of the month but there are lots and lots of coaches who I would support over the prolonged dimming of the BK era

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Anyone. Literally anyone different.

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:50 @ Kevin

I certainly hope Swarbrick was on the phone today.

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The disheartening thing is that he probably wasn't

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:27 @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

[ No text ]

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If we're taking a flier, I'm sold on MacIntyre.

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 11:49 @ Kevin

I'd prefer to swing for the fences first, though.

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The revenue generated by 3 National Championships..

by mkmcfrlnd, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 15:46 @ Tim

..would more than pay for the 12 million+ a year Saban would want, right?

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Seconded

by BPH, San Diego, Saturday, November 05, 2016, 12:27 @ Tim

[ No text ]

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