prop bets: better/worse?
by Jay 
, San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 08:13 (3209 days ago)
Improve or regress from 2015? For each category, guess better or worse over last year's mark.
scoring ppg: 34.2
scoring defense: 24.1
red zone TD%: 58%
red zone TD defense: 65%
total yards rushing: 2,703
rushing TDs: 29
passer rating: 152.27
passing TDs: 25
yards per play: 7.02
yards per play defense: 5.57
interceptions thrown: 10
interceptions made: 9
fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10
sacks made: 24
sacks given up: 26
rushing plays over 20 yards: 27
rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26
long run: 98
passing plays over 25 yards: 34
passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25
long pass: 81
Spinoff prop bet
by Brendan 
, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Monday, August 29, 2016, 12:34 (3209 days ago) @ Jay
Courtesy of Tim O'Malley at Scout (he took the over on both, btw).
Studstill will have more interceptions in 2016 than Redfield had in his career.
Line: 2
Studstill will have more passes broken up in 2016 than Redfield had in his career.
Line: 4
Not to pile on, but the fact that we can even have this discussion is depressing.
--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats
betting affirmative on both
by Jay , San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 13:29 (3209 days ago) @ Brendan
- No text -
My shot at glory!
scoring ppg: 34.2 - Worse
scoring defense: 24.1 - Better
red zone TD%: 58% - Better
red zone TD defense: 65% - Better
total yards rushing: 2,703 - Worse
rushing TDs: 29 - Worse
passer rating: 152.27 - Better
passing TDs: 25 - Better
yards per play: 7.02 - Worse
yards per play defense: 5.57 - Better
interceptions thrown: 10 - Better
interceptions made: 9 - Better
fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10 - Better
sacks made: 24 - Better
sacks given up: 26 - Worse
rushing plays over 20 yards: 27 - Worse
rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26 - Better
long run: 98 - Better
passing plays over 25 yards: 34 - Worse
passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25 - Better
long pass: 81 - Worse
--
2013 Survivor Pool Champion
2014 Survivor Pool Failure
if there is a 99-yard run
by Jay , San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 09:51 (3209 days ago) @ Mike (Embrey)
I will buy you a lifetime membership to TPG (value: priceless)
The guy can't get the VIP All-Access one?
by Chris , Raleigh, NC, Monday, August 29, 2016, 10:06 (3209 days ago) @ Jay
- No text -
--
"F--- everyone who isn't us."
#Team128
shh
by Jay , San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 10:08 (3209 days ago) @ Chris
- No text -
WTF!
![[image]](http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/umad.gif)
--
2013 Survivor Pool Champion
2014 Survivor Pool Failure
Drinking the Kool-Aid
by Brendan , The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Monday, August 29, 2016, 09:31 (3209 days ago) @ Jay
scoring ppg: 34.2
Improve, but barely. That's a pretty good number, especially by ND standards. I think those thinking BK will tone down his offense because he has young receivers don't understand how he thinks.
scoring defense: 24.1
I'm going to say improve again, but again, barely. I think 20
red zone TD%: 58%
Improve. Mauling OL to go with either a more experienced QB (Kizer) or a better improviser (Zaire).
red zone TD defense: 65%
Improve. It has to. That's an ugly number, good (?) for 94th nationally last year. Better secondary play and more even linebacker play should improve this.
total yards rushing: 2,703
Improve slightly, but not top 3,000 yards. I could see another 500-600 yards coming from the QB position, which leaves "only" 2,200 needed from Folston, Adams, Williams, Sanders, etc.
rushing TDs: 29
Regress (more on this in a bit).
passer rating: 152.27
Improve. I think Kizer will be a top 10 QB (about 160 or better).
passing TDs: 25
Improve. I think the offense will score a touch more overall, with a couple more touchdowns coming from the pass this year.
yards per play: 7.02
Man, that's a good number (6th nationally), and missing the two most explosive guys from last year makes it hard to imagine we'd improve. Regress, but stay above 6.5.
yards per play defense: 5.57
That number makes we want to puke. Improve.
interceptions thrown: 10
Push. I know, it;'s a cop out, but that sounds about right.
interceptions made: 9
Is it bad that I'm surprised we had that many? Probably... I'll say improve, barely, so 10 or 11.
fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10
Most random stat in football. Improve, I guess, because it's a 50/50 chance I'm right.
sacks made: 24
Improve. I think Gilmore is going to surprise some people with his line's production this year.
sacks given up: 26
Improve. A lot of sacks last year were on Kizer, and with improved/accelerated decision making that number should go down.
rushing plays over 20 yards: 27
Improve. Sanders should be good for a couple by himself, and we know what Adams, Kizer, and Zaire can do.
rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26
Improve. We have more speed in the second and third level than we've had in a very long time.
long run: 98
"Regress."
passing plays over 25 yards: 34
Regress, but not by much.
passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25
Improve. Better communication in the secondary, and I don't just mean Max, should make this less of an issue.
long pass: 81
Hmm. Regress, because we don't have a guy who can run a 4.3 40 this year, but I'm not confident one way or the other.
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"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats
My take
by Jeff (BGS) , A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, August 29, 2016, 08:54 (3209 days ago) @ Jay
edited by Jeff (BGS), Monday, August 29, 2016, 09:32
My general theme for the season:
OFFENSE: The loss of Fuller is more significant to the passing game than we thought, but ND makes up for it with improvements to the running game. ND chews up more clock, total possessions per game drop, and thus stats suffer a bit.
DEFENSE: More consistent play from the defense, particularly the secondary, with fewer big plays given up. Again, fewer possessions per game mean a lot of stat totals tick downward a bit.
WORSE: scoring ppg: 34.2
BETTER: scoring defense: 24.1
BETTER: red zone TD%: 58%
BETTER: red zone TD defense: 65%
BETTER: total yards rushing: 2,703
BETTER: rushing TDs: 29
BETTER: passer rating: 152.27
WORSE: passing TDs: 25
WORSE: yards per play: 7.02
BETTER: yards per play defense: 5.57
BETTER: interceptions thrown: 10
BETTER: interceptions made: 9
WORSE: fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10
WORSE: sacks made: 24
BETTER: sacks given up: 26
BETTER: rushing plays over 20 yards: 27
BETTER: rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26
WORSE: long run: 98 (pretty tough to do better here)
WORSE: passing plays over 25 yards: 34
BETTER: passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25
BETTER: long pass: 81
--
At night, the ice weasels come.
I'll play
Improve or regress from 2015? For each category, guess better or worse over last year's mark.
scoring ppg: 34.2
WORSE: But just under.
scoring defense: 24.1
BETTER: But not by a whole lot.
red zone TD%: 58%
BETTER: Creeps closer to 60%.
red zone TD defense: 65%
BETTER: Improved run defense should be a big help here.
total yards rushing: 2,703
WORSE: But not by a whole lot.
rushing TDs: 29
BETTER: But only by a few.
passer rating: 152.27
BETTER: Barely.
passing TDs: 25
WORSE: Barely.
yards per play: 7.02
WORSE.
yards per play defense: 5.57
BETTER.
interceptions thrown: 10
BETTER.
interceptions made: 9
BETTER. Possibly significantly better.
fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10
BETTER.
sacks made: 24
BETTER. But not by much.
sacks given up: 26
BETTER.
rushing plays over 20 yards: 27
WORSE. We miss you CJ.
rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26
BETTER. By a significant margin.
long run: 98
HA. UMM, WORSE.
passing plays over 25 yards: 34
WORSE. We miss you Will.
passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25
BETTER. Again, by a significant margin.
long pass: 81
WORSE.
as poor as some of the defensive numbers were last year
by Jay , San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 08:37 (3209 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)
I have a hard time going "better" on almost all of them.
Red Zone defense might be the only one. I agree that we'll be better against the run in general and definitely in the red zone.
I don't have a whole lot of confidence in some of those
Obviously the fumbles forced/gained being one. Sacks is probably another, since Okwara very quietly had a good 2nd half of the season in that department.
I do think the additions of Crawford (particularly in nickel) and Studstill could significantly increase the interception numbers, particularly given the green QBs on the schedule, and my (perhaps misplaced) belief that the experience on the DL and increased athleticism in some of the LB corps could make it easier to hurry said green QBs.
The scoring avg and yards per play were a roll of a dice for me. But I do believe if we stay relatively healthy, the run defense should be very, very good. The pay site guys have me drinking the Nyles Morgan Kool Aid in a big way.
on linebackers
by Jay , San Diego, Monday, August 29, 2016, 08:52 (3209 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)
Bill Connolly was on Rakes' podcast a few months ago talking about some of his stat analysis, specifically his studies on which returning starters have the most impact on success. He found that linebackers have no detectable impact, which was pretty interesting. (Quarterbacks and defensive backs have the most impact). So that may bode well for losing a guy like Jaylon. Yeah, he was an amazing talent, but maybe linebackers are like the running backs of the defense: plug and play, mostly.
Let's see...
by Jim (fisherj08) , A Samoan kid's laptop, Monday, August 29, 2016, 08:25 (3209 days ago) @ Jay
Improve or regress from 2015? For each category, guess better or worse over last year's mark.
scoring ppg: 34.2 - Worse, probably? Lack of Fuller/Prosise will deflate numbers, although Zaire/experienced Kizer should help in the red zone.
scoring defense: 24.1 - Better! I believe the hype!
red zone TD%: 58% - Better! More experienced QBs, plus Zaire's feet should give us better numbers.
red zone TD defense: 65% - Let's say better, because it can't get much worse.
Total yards rushing: 2,703 - Worse, without Prosise and Dexter William's status questionable.
rushing TDs: 29 - Worse, for the same reason.
passer rating: 152.27 - Better! Two experienced QBs.
passing TDs: 25 - Better, same reason.
yards per play: 7.02 - Worse, because 7.02 yards per play is insane.
yards per play defense: 5.57 - Better!
interceptions thrown: 10 - Better!
interceptions made: 9 - Better!
fumbles forced/recovered: 20/10 - ...better? I guess.
sacks made: 24 - Better
sacks given up: 26 - Worse, last year's line was really good.
rushing plays over 20 yards: 27 - Worse without Prosise's big play ability
rushing plays over 20 yards given up: 26 - Better, I'm still believing the hype
long run: 98 - That would be really be something if it was better, wouldn't it?
passing plays over 25 yards: 34 - Worse without Fuller
passing plays over 25 yards given up: 25 - Better
long pass: 81 - Worse without Fuller