I think we have a better shot against GT than USC.
by Kevin , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 05:02 (3436 days ago)
GT plays a great, but solvable, offense. The approach Diaco took in 2012 against Navy is the basic answer to those systems -- close the inside gaps, shed blocks with violence, then let them come to you. You don't have to, and shouldn't try to, blow up the attack. Just take its oxygen away and limit the touchdowns.
Georgia Tech is also beatable on defense.
The games that worry me are the ones with any semblance of a passing attack. ND has no ability to rush the passer. The worthless blitzing yesterday was strong evidence of this. BVG knows he has no one who can get there on a three or four man rush. I think it's time to just say "tough shit, DBs. Their guy will have time. Cover your man." Blitzing and not getting there is the absolute worst. That mediocre QB yesterday was just playing find-and-replace: see where the blitzer's coming from, then throw it there. Couple that with the fact that we have one good CB and one good Safety, and that's a problem. Kessler will go nuts on us, again, if we don't figure out a different approach.
we're going to need 5+ TDs to beat them
by Jay , San Diego, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 08:56 (3436 days ago) @ Kevin
That's with merely competent defensive play. And as many others have noted, our capability to achieve competent-level D is in serious doubt. Might need 42 to beat these guys.
To get 5 or 6 touchdowns on offense we'll need to be very efficient. Seems like a tall order, unless we can throw in a defensive or ST score.
I think we'll hold them to less than 21.
by Kevin , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 10:46 (3436 days ago) @ Jay
I'm serious. We have the horses to shut this shit down.
our best bet is for transcendent games by Day and Jaylon
by Mike (bart), Sunday, September 13, 2015, 11:27 (3436 days ago) @ Kevin
I think Rochell, Shumate, Tranqull, Russell and Farley can really help us win some individual battles as well. Tackling by guys not named 'Max' was actually decent yesterday. I don't think it will happen, but our guys are going to be a significant step up from anything GT has seen so far.
Well, they are the best DL and LB of the Kelly era.
by Kevin , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 11:40 (3436 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
If anyone can be transcendent, those two can.
That seems like a tall order for a QB starting his first
by Rob (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:05 (3436 days ago) @ Jay
game.
I think we can reasonably expect him to put up 4 TD's. We will need some good kicking from Yoon and potentially a special teams touchdown or defensive touchdown.
Looking at GTech over the last year or so, the lowest point total was 27 against Virginia Tech. They usually score in the 35 point range against most FCS teams.
I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet, but Georgia Tech is a really good team. We will need some help to win this game.
was curious about turnovers
by Jay , San Diego, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:13 (3436 days ago) @ Rob (Rakes of Mallow)
With the way GT operates (not much passing) I was thinking they'd be spectacular in holding onto the ball. Turns out they're merely average over the past few years.
They forced a ton last year, though: 29, for a +11 overall.
They created a turnover on 26% of opponents' possessions
by Rob (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:30 (3436 days ago) @ Jay
best in FBS.
Their DC is Ted Roof. Decent DC. Won a national championship as a DC with Auburn. Used to coach under Bill O'Brien as well.
Another of the names O'Leary was bringing with his staff.
by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 10:42 (3436 days ago) @ Rob (Rakes of Mallow)
- No text -
I think we're just about
by Mike (bart), Sunday, September 13, 2015, 08:19 (3436 days ago) @ Kevin
fucked. Two games in, and our major programmatic and personnel goals are all but out of reach. We will (most likely) not seriously compete for a playoff spot, we will (most likely) not establish our defense as a nationally respected unit, we will not figure out the QB situation. The latter point is stomach-churning: even in the rosiest of world's, we're going to enter next seasons with another QB controversy, one (or possibly two) of our current players is going to transfer, and we will have split leadership and disparate offensive identities with the opportunity cost of developing championship-level aptitudes in either category.
I would be more hopeful for an OSU-level championship run if I thought our coaching were on the same level or if I thought we had comparable talent in essential spots. We haven't gotten, held onto or developed enough guys to generate a meaningful pass rush. Our defensive scheme is (to me, at least) a huge albatross. BVG tries to call specific defensive plays all game long, in in era where most offensive systems are built around flexible constraining concepts. Essentially, an offense reverses the Diaco dynamic and can force our defense to "execute down the field." Once any O gets our D on its heels even a little bit, the defense seems to dis-integrate: responsibilities alter dramatically from play to play as do the techniques required of the players. Instead of having our guys inhabit core responsibilities on a regular basis and gain confidence in how to perform them, they flail around and seem to play below their natural abilities in the transition. Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day can pull off this trick, but the rest of our guys cannot. We're not in an era where defenses can dictate to offenses right now, but we keep trying to do that.
I hope I'm wrong, but I think the GT game is going to be very bad, like 49-24 bad. Everyone on this team was locked into a championship-or-bust mindset, and once that goes bust it is going to be a tough thing to keep guys locked in; and we are going to have to try to manage that without our best leader.
More globally, I think we're more likely than not headed into the wind-down of the BK era. I think the guy is a damn good coach and has done a lot of good for the program. The stretch from Utah 2010 through approximately Pitt 2013 was nationally elite and our unquestionable post-Holtz apex. Again, the guy is a damn good coach. Instead of having a global, tragic flaw like Davie, Willingham or Weis I think Kelly's epitaph will end up speaking of two critical, determinative errors:
- He put too many eggs in the Everett Golson basket. For better or worse, Kelly determined that Golson would be the rock upon which he would build his program. There were certainly many great moments and stretches where everything clicked, but three successive times (2013 suspension, 2014 meltdown, 2015 transfer) where Golson burned Kelly, creating vulnerabilities that ended up biting us in the ass each time.
- Hiring BVG. As stated above, I simply think the modern college game has passed by schemes such as Van Gorder's. BVG's past record was certainly impressive and the hire was at-the-time defensible, but at the end of the day it is up to the head coach to make the right, winning choices for the program, and while I will be happy to be proven wrong and eat crow, it looks like we bet big on Van Gorder and will end up drawing snake eyes.
Tags:
big picture
A little overboard, but you do make a good point
by Rob (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:40 (3436 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
about the championship or bust mindset. It is key that Kelly keeps this team locked in. I don't think anyone is expecting a championship, but we can still win a lot of games. Of course, if he loses this team, we can also lose a lot of games.
I hope Kelly got some rest last night. He looked like someone punched him in the gut after the game. Rightfully so. But he has to make sure he stays locked in, along with the rest of the team.
yeah, hard not to feel for the guy
by Mike (bart), Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:42 (3436 days ago) @ Rob (Rakes of Mallow)
if we win 11 games it will be an all-time great coaching job. He's got to be terribly concerned about the defense as well.
That's the thing concerning me the most
by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:54 (3436 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
I figured with our QB stable set up as is, and the consistent successes in recruiting on the offensive side of the ball, that we were set up to rip off a couple seasons of double-digit wins, and perhaps even a playoff run or two if things broke right.
But now we're almost certainly have to going to regime-change on the defensive side of the ball, and coupling that with the attrition we're going to face over there after this year, we might not be ready to field a competent-to-good defense for 2-3 years.
In 2012, we opened with a convincing win against Navy
by Bill, Murrieta, CA, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:02 (3436 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
and then stumbled through a squeaking victory against Purdue. We somehow managed through it.
Suffice it to say that I think it's a wee bit early to start writing obituaries for this team.
can we shelve the big picture wailing until we lose a game?
by Jay , San Diego, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 08:54 (3436 days ago) @ Mike (bart)
edited by Jay, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:13
Edited to add: I agree with the bulk of your post, but once you started down the rabbit hole of unraveling the entire season (and then the program), you lost me.
It's free content!
by Mike (bart), Sunday, September 13, 2015, 09:41 (3436 days ago) @ Jay
we're getting Disrupted to oblivion by Slack! I'm trying to help!
In seriousness, I should have emphasized my caveats more. I swear I'm not coming at this from a place of cynicism - I just wanted to offer what I think will be some relevant frames of reference as we watch the rest of the season unfold.
When your MLB is Joe Schmidt
by Spesh
, Los Angeles, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 07:18 (3436 days ago) @ Kevin
I don't think you can count on shedding blocks. Not a good sign for your defense against an attack like that. Too bad, too, because the DL has been playing really well against the run.
I know he is the captain, but I am tired of seeing him miss diving shoestring tackles. I hope he has a career game against GaTech, but I am not hopeful.
Is he less active and effective post injury? Seems off
by JD in Portland , Portland OR, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 07:50 (3436 days ago) @ Spesh
He didn't have half a step to lose.
I hope they have the courage to play Morgan if he'd be more effective
He definitely seems slower to me
by scriptcomesfirst , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 07:57 (3436 days ago) @ JD in Portland
I'd like to see Morgan in there more often.
I don't think he was ever fast to begin with
by Jack , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 08:35 (3436 days ago) @ scriptcomesfirst
I love the guy, but there's a reason he had to walk on, and I think it was speed, or rather lack thereof. His smarts and desire are beyond reproach, but there's only so much you can do if you're just not that fast.
DE recruiting is hurting our pass defense.
by San Pedro , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 06:33 (3436 days ago) @ Kevin
We don't have anyone other than jaylon who can put his hand on the ground and get after the QB. And he's too small to do it consistently against OTs.
And he's too important in coverage.
by Kevin , Sunday, September 13, 2015, 06:46 (3436 days ago) @ San Pedro
edited by Kevin, Sunday, September 13, 2015, 06:52
Onwualu, Luke, and the Safeties did not have great games yesterday. Jaylon is great, but he's one guy. He can't be a DE and our second-best coverage player at the same time.