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yscore - 2013 in the matrix

by Supe ⌂, VA, Sunday, December 08, 2013, 19:10

Ok, prepare to have your mind blown.

So, with my yscore stuff, i develop rankings for teams. Now that the regular season is done, i thought it would be interesting to see how teams performed broadly by what they yscore ranking was (btw, FSU ended up #1, Auburn #20). So - I made a massive matrix.

Here's what the matrix is:
- each axis is the universe of FBS teams, starting at #1 in the upper left and then moving on down
- each red or blue dot is a game. blue = vertical axis beat the horizontal axis
- each black dot is nothing - no game was played
- each yellow block is the impossibility of a team playing itself

You can see squares in the chart - they are at 25 team increments (top 25, top 50, top 75, top 100). The two horizontal bars across are Auburn (at 20) and ND (at 25).

Some things I think about when I see this:
- I'm excited that the team with the higher yscore won 81% of the time (not adjusting for home field drops it to 79%)... how awesome is that?
- ND's loss to Pitt (that red dot on the far right in the 2nd horizontal row) is pretty bad. Although, it's not unheard of. But, it's still pretty bad
- ND was 2-1 vs top 25, 2-2 vs top 50, 0-0 vs top 75.
- SOS has a massive impact on W/L - I know this is a no-duh, but look at the rows in the top 25. FSU is 1-0 against the top 25 teams. Stanford is 4-1.

[image]

Tags:
charts

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Great stuff. Thanks.

by Slainte Joe, Raleigh, Monday, December 09, 2013, 11:32 @ Supe

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nice work Supe!

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Monday, December 09, 2013, 08:48 @ Supe

I look around for some easy interactive tools.

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I think I like mine better.

by Chris @, Raleigh, NC, Monday, December 09, 2013, 06:56 @ Supe

[image]

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"F--- everyone who isn't us."
#Team128

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ah, that is definitely better

by Supe ⌂, VA, Monday, December 09, 2013, 07:07 @ Chris

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Awesome.

by fightinamish ⌂ @, Sunday, December 08, 2013, 21:57 @ Supe
edited by fightinamish, Sunday, December 08, 2013, 22:08

Man, if that chart was interactive I wouldn't have left the house today. It's really easy to get lost in it.

That Pitt game really sucked. Worst lost suffered by any team in the Top 25.

Looks like Wazzou over USC, Tennessee over other USC, and Pitt beating us were the three most improbable events of the year.

Marshall (ranked 21 in yscore as a 4-loss C-USA runner-up) is an interesting case -- they played horrible competition (4 wins against teams in the bottom 11) and handled them expertly, which I guess made up for their 4 close-ish losses against middling-to-bad competition in yscore? Something tells me they found some way to game the system.

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one other thought...

by Supe ⌂, VA, Monday, December 09, 2013, 07:06 @ fightinamish

Marshal is a team that is one-sided. So, their offense is at +0.9 and defense is at 0.0. I'm going to do some analysis to see if one-sided teams are not as strong as their yscore suggests.

So - looking at Marshall, you can see one loss was a turnover loss (Ohio - lost turnover battle 4-0). Two losses I would argue are defensive gaps... such as Middle Tennessee - where they gave up 585 yards and 51 points. Or Rice, where they gave up 487 yards and 41 points.

I have a theory that when teams are one-sided, they are not as good as their yscore suggests. If the data proves this to be true, i might do something like applying a 20% discount on the delta of a yscore. So - for Marshall. The gap between offense & defense is 0.9. So, 20%*0.9 = 1.8. So, their new yscore would be 0.72.

Anyway - this is one thing I will test likely over the holidays.

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I wish I knew how to make it interactive.

by Supe ⌂, VA, Monday, December 09, 2013, 06:45 @ fightinamish

I'll have to go through and find the biggest upsets and some other fun stuff. I'll likely do it over the next few weeks.

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Sweet chart.

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Sunday, December 08, 2013, 19:41 @ Supe

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awesome - great work

by Mike (bart), Sunday, December 08, 2013, 19:35 @ Supe

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