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chart challenge: playcalling tendencies

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:25

What can you make of this?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aqu7YH9xlSk0dEU1dUo0dzdHVEVkSk9xeHNXbXVkTX...

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Here's something interesting

by Mike (Max) @, Orlando, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:50 @ Jay

Plays run while leading: 278
Plays run while trailing: 281
Record: 8-3

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I would suspect an inverse correlation exists

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:54 @ Mike (Max)

With a lead, teams will often want to take as much time as possible between offensive plays.

When trailing, teams will often speed up their offenses.

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Seems easy enough to find out.

by Mike (Max) @, Orlando, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 11:07 @ Ken Fowler
edited by Mike (Max), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 11:18

We are just below 50%, so this would suggest we may have overperformed a bit, compared to other teams who play as much from behind as we do, more in line with a 6-win team than an 8-win team. But you are correct inasmuch as a 50% trailing/leading ratio does not translate to a 50% win percentage.

[image]

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I think your printer is running low on ink

by Mike (bart), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 11:16 @ Mike (Max)

[ No text ]

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I would love the context of other teams or CFB as a whole...

by PAK, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:02 @ Jay

but that generally looks exactly like I would expect. Run when you win, not run to win.

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I'm going to try and answer this question in the offseason

by NDTex ⌂, Dallas, TX, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:47 @ PAK

Get all the data from the season from CFB stats and try to find a way to split it out.

Current ideas:

1) CFB average as a whole
2) BCS Top 25
3) BCS Top 10
4) BCS Confernces
5) Teams over .500
6) Non-AQ teams
7) Teams below .500

Any other split suggestions are certainly welcome.

---
Her Loyal Sons | Twitter

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A few thoughts

by Eric M, Western New York, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:55 @ Jay

I'm working on a series of posts that looks at these splits versus elite teams.

It's not yet done without the '13 season full stats but here's what I know so far...

1) Kelly's teams consistently run the ball well early in games. The first quarter stats are really solid across the board over 4 years. I expect the '13 numbers to take a hit following Stanford and possibly the bowl game.

2) We both suck a lot more at running and also abandon the run a lot more in the second quarter. In comparison, the top teams run the best in the second quarter.

3) No big surprise but we need to get 15 to 20% better in picking up first downs on first down runs and picking up first downs on third and short.

4) We need to improve picking up first downs and running better on third down and medium. We've only picked up first downs on third down with 4-6 yards to go 11 times over 50+ games.

5) Simply put, the whole team needs to get better. It all trickles down. Better defense and the staff will trust running the ball more. Better offense and a more potent rushing attack builds bigger leads to then run the ball 75% in the second half.

---
-Ya boy Jackmerius Tacktheritrix

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Our median play is a run, just like everyone else

by Mike (bart), Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:50 @ Jay

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one nice thing this pointed out to me

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:29 @ Mike (bart)

We've never been losing by more than 14 at any point this season.

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I was thinking about this last night.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:43 @ Jay

Other than the Alabama game, has there been a game under Kelly in which ND was blown out? I couldn't think of one. Hell, that in itself is progress after the last 2 coaches.

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Yes:

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:51 @ Bryan (IrishCavan)

Stanford 2010 was a 28 point game midway through the 4th, ended up a loss by 23.

Navy 2010: I think you probably have to call an 18 point loss to Navy getting blown out, too, especially since it was 35-10 at one point.

Alabama in the NCG was definitely a blowout.

USC and Stanford 2011 were solid defeats, and both probably could have easily been larger margins, but I'll demur from saying they were blowouts.

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Thanks.

by Bryan (IrishCavan), Howth Castle and Environs, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:56 @ Savage

I must have blocked those games out.

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a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:44 @ Jay

[image]

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The tower? Rapunzel, Rapunzel!!!

by FunkDoctorSpock, Your Nightmares, B* tches, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:53 @ Jeff (BGS)

[ No text ]

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I knew this was the wrong week to stop sniffing glue

by Jack @, Monday, November 25, 2013, 21:44 @ FunkDoctorSpock

[ No text ]

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Adding quarter would add to the story, if there is one.

by Mike (Max) @, Orlando, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:35 @ Jay

As it is, it looks almost exactly as one would expect, with the slightest tendency toward more passing, but that's sometimes the reality when it's 3rd and long, even if you're winning.

Alternately, comparing those numbers to the rest of CFB might be interesting.

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I'd say Kelly is a pretty standard play-caller.

by Bill, Southern California, Monday, November 25, 2013, 18:29 @ Jay

Nothing really 'pass happy' about that. I expected that if you looked at most "high-level" coaches, you'd see similar tendencies. Our problem this year is that we haven't been ahead enough. Chalk that up to poor red-zone performance and a less than stellar defensive year.

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my guess is

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:05 @ Bill

In the "Losing by 1-7" range, Kelly skews more pass than average.

I'm going to dig up the national average numbers today and also provide the quarterly breakdown (or perhaps time left in the game).

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I tried time left--the data is not really available

by Mike (Max) @, Orlando, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:58 @ Jay

I have almost everything you're looking for, just cleaning up a few things. I'll email it to you shortly.

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I'd say Kelly is also more prone to pass

by Bill, Southern California, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:15 @ Jay

on 3rd down and short yardage plays than other coaches as well. There is definitely a bias towards the pass in Kelly's playcalling, but I don't think it is as tilted as many make it out to be.

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I'd argue it's more of a general trend than people think

by NDTex ⌂, Dallas, TX, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:44 @ Bill

I need more data, but I think we are in a "new era" of offensive strategy with the advent of the spread. I know Bill Connelly had something on this as well with the increase of 5-wide formations on 3rd and short.

The theory is that on 3rd and short, yes you can run, but everyone knows it's coming and you have a shorter area of the field to cover/contain.

If you spread receivers out and pass, you are wagering that there is no way that the entire secondary will cover every short route and at least one will be open for the easy first.

Kelly obviously espouses the spread/pass theory in 3rd and short and definitely leans that way more often than not (again, this is based on what I've seen, not data yet).

Like I said, I feel like I've seen CFB gravitate more in that direction for two reasons:

1) Counter size disadvantages
2) Leverage speed advantages/secondary mismatches

This is part of the data that I want to check out in the offseason. See what the actual tendencies are in CFB and see if it matches my hypothesis or not.

---
Her Loyal Sons | Twitter

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I know comparing NCAA to NFL is apples/oranges

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 08:26 @ Bill

But I was still pretty surprised how often the Patriots and Broncos were throwing on 3rd and short the other night. Particularly given the weather conditions.

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The power run game is based on overpowering the other team

by Greg, the 'Dena, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 11:19 @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

When their front can stack the line and their safeties can creep up and fill gaps because you are lined up to run on short yardage, in today's NFL you are not going to overpower them for more than a yard or two. That's why running on 3rd-and-3-or-more is not seen all that regularly while running on 3rd-and-goal from the 1 or 2 always seems to work. It's literally the difference of a yard that gives the LBs and safeties time to get to the line and stop the runner (so long as the DL does its job).

I think we'll see more runs on 3rd-and-3 and 3rd-and-4 next year, but they'll be option runs where Everett can hand off based on a read, and if he doesn't hand off then he can roll/run to one side of the field where there will be a receiver/TE available for a dump-off pass; Everett will have the choice to run it himself or dump off based on his read of the defender. This year, we can't do that. So we're stuck with deciding whether we think we can out-power for 3 or 4 yards (as opposed to 1 or 2) a team that knows we're running the ball.

I'd like to see us line up to run and then have a TE release, because I think Tommy could hit him on play action and pick up more yardage than we consistently get by spreading the field. Of course, that would only work for one game. But hey, we only have one game left!

---
#asshat

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I think that also has to do with 3 fumble-prone RBs

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:00 @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

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We've lost two fumbles all year

by Mike (bart), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:04 @ Ken Fowler

while leaning on the RBs more than any other season under Kelly. And one of the guys who fumbled doesn't really play anymore.

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I meant Ball, Blount, and Ridley.

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:04 @ Mike (bart)

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Am I wrong?

by Mike (bart), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:06 @ Ken Fowler

Am I wrong?

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I feel like there's a reference I'm not getting

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:09 @ Mike (bart)

But, in seriousness, I was just hypothesizing about why Denver and New England were throwing more than (even teams with Manning and Brady) otherwise might in those conditions.

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Am I wrong?

by Mike (bart), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:12 @ Ken Fowler

[image]

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I'm confused and unsure if we are fighting.

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:16 @ Mike (bart)

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you've never seen the Big Lebowski?

by Mike (bart), Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:47 @ Ken Fowler

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Correct.

by Ken Fowler, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 11:31 @ Mike (bart)

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Grounds for expulsion from TPG

by Spesh ⌂ @, Los Angeles, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 12:06 @ Ken Fowler

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he's our Donnie

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, November 26, 2013, 09:48 @ Mike (bart)

[ No text ]

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