Congrats to the Red Sox

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 20:27 (3802 days ago)
edited by hobbs, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:39

and I was so enjoying the Bobby V show. Pity they had to go make a change and all. Its amazing that Boston could in one year go from grease fire to world champions. Of course having a 140 million dollar payroll gives one margin for maneuver in rebuilding.

Not a classic series by any stretch but it had its moments.

STL simply isn't as hateable without LaRussa.

They executed the best salary dump in history of baseball

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:29 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

It's a lesson that could be learned by many teams, starting with the New York Yankees. And that's even acknowledging that Gonzalez is a terrific player and that the Dodgers benefitted.

Does conspiring with Selig to suspend ARod not count?

by San Pedro @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:38 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

Because the Yankees played that one quite well.

Except he hasn't served a day of suspension yet

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:31 (3802 days ago) @ San Pedro

He wasn't playing before August because he had an injured hip. Unless you think that was also a conspiracy.

They should just have him offed.

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:39 (3802 days ago) @ San Pedro

- No text -

George would have done it.

by San Pedro @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:44 (3802 days ago) @ Tim
edited by San Pedro, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:57

The boys don't have Dad's flair for crime.

Hah. Indeed.

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:59 (3802 days ago) @ San Pedro

- No text -

True, but you need a willing and able partner.

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:33 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

That kind of trade is going to remain very rare, especially since two of the highest payroll teams will never trade between themselves.

That trade was just the right situation at the right time for two loaded franchises.

To quote the great Joaquin Andujar, youneverknow

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:30 (3802 days ago) @ Tim

Copycats are all over the world of sports.

I was rooting for the Meteor

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:17 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

But since it wasn't going to happen I had to reluctantly put my allegiance behind the Red Sox.

What was disappointing from the Red Sox, though, is I didn't hear one mention about St. Louis. Look I know Boston fans can be a little self-absorbed and had the whole motivational angle behind them, but couldn't one speaker (hell, even the effing commissioner) congratulate the Cardinals?

I really don't like the Cards, but this may be one of the first times (and apologies if I just missed it flipping channels) where I didn't see any acknowledgment of the opponent.

my Boston cousin's wife paid a nice compliment

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:55 (3802 days ago) @ Domer99

"Bummed the series is over -- I will miss staring at Mike Matheny"

The GMA ladies will probably agree

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:09 (3802 days ago) @ Jay

- No text -

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

He's WAY too old for them. (And it was Today)

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:13 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

- No text -

I'm sort of glad I messed that up

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:11 (3801 days ago) @ BillyGoat

- No text -

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

FWIW, John Farrell opened his PC last night by

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:23 (3802 days ago) @ Domer99
edited by hobbs, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:26

praising STl, specifically, Mike Matheny for the job he did in managing that team.

To me it struck a nice cord.

A - "Before we get into any questions, I just want to congratulate Mike Matheny, the St. Louis Cardinals on a great season, a very, very good team. This was a stressful series; there's no question about it. As close as these games were from start to finish, a very worthy opponent, and we wish them nothing but the best."

I flipped away after the Boston triumverate took the trophy

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:29 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

And not shockingly, Erin Andrews had no idea which one was John Henry, Larry Lucchino, or Ben Cherington.

But good for John Farrell, he seems like a really classy dude.

I am impressed with how Farrell carries himself.

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:30 (3802 days ago) @ Domer99

- No text -

Farrell did congratulate them first, but

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:22 (3802 days ago) @ Domer99

that's the only one I can remember. I thought what Farrell said was nice - easy to be nice when you win, but still - and he made sure to not answer Andrews' question and instead say that first. But a good point on the rest of them, I hadn't even noticed it.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

JF gave congrats/condolences to Matheny.

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:21 (3802 days ago) @ Domer99

And a couple of the hitters in their interviews talked about all the young STL arms. But you're right, there wasn't much mention of the Cards overall.

And by the way, on Ortiz...

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 06:49 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

Here's his final line for the Series:

AVG - .688
OBP - .760
SLG - 1.188
OPS - 1.948

One of his five outs was that spectacular catch in Game 1 by Beltran that robbed him of a grand slam. Just for fun, had Beltran not caught that one, ceteris paribus:

AVG - .750
OBP - .800
SLG - 1.438
OPS - 2.238

I mean, holy bloody shit, what a tear. Why did they take so long to pitch around him? Three of those four intentional walks came in Game 6. He certainly cemented his legend in Boston last night, which probably didn't need the help, and almost certainly laid a solid foundation for Cooperstown. The Hall loves stars who go supernova in October, and in addition to his considerable career regular season numbers Ortiz now carries a lifetime World Series slash of .455/.576/.795. Wow.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Is somebody keeping track of all these HOF #bets?

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 14:34 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan

I fully intend to dredge up this thread in future years.

Tags:
bets

I reserve the right to act as if this never happened

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 18:54 (3801 days ago) @ Jay

You know, like Eddie Murphy's old bit about getting caught with another woman.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

No chance at the HOF

by Rob, Buffalo, NY, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:46 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan

He's borderline based on performance. He also used steroids.

Absolutely no chance.

I like that everyone just forgot about his failed PED test

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:55 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

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The one that never was proven to exist?

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:23 (3802 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)

I'm not saying he was clean then -- I obviously have no idea, and certainly there were users within the organization -- but considering that he's never tested positive during the open testing procedures, and the only allegation is that he was on a list that was never published in full and wasn't considered "proof" of anything (because the list contained far more names than there were positive tests, and because the list's veracity was never shown), I think it's a bit strong to tie him in with Ramirez, Rodriguez, and other admitted users.

How many positive tests has A-rod had?

by Rob, Buffalo, NY, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:15 (3801 days ago) @ Savage

You can't use "he has never tested positive" as a serious defense.

Just on the false positives --

by Ken Fowler, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:36 (3802 days ago) @ Savage

The report is that 8 of the 103 were false positives. I wouldn't call that "far more."

Come on, counselor

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:01 (3802 days ago) @ Ken Fowler
edited by Brendan, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:08

Absence of evidence is not evidence in itself. It may be statistically likely that he was one of the 95, not one of the 8, but that doesn't definitively say anything. I thought Mike Piazza was a sure-fire first ballot guy - I mean, he's arguably the best hitting catcher ever, and if you can even have that discussion about a guy he obviously should be in the Hall - but he seems to have fallen under the shadow of suspicion cast by others in his era just because he's a big guy who hit home runs. I won't get into defending him here, but that's just plain wrong.

And here's a dirty little secret: there are an awful lot of guys in the Hall of Fame now who used PED's. People equate PED's to steroids, but that's not right - steroids are PED's but not vice versa. Amphetamines were in wide use in the majors from at least the 60's up until at least the strengthened testing procedures, far wider use than steroids ever were. So where do you draw the line? Should Willie Mays have been kept out because he used speed? The idea of putting Bonds and Clemens into the Hall, who clearly cheated at what should have been the fading end of their careers and put up their biggest numbers and won most of their awards after that, bothers me. But I'll admit that it's a difficult question.

EDIT: And another thing - Gaylord Perry is in the Hall of Fame and the pitch that carried him there, by his own admission, is the spitball. Whither Gaylord? It's a complicated question, and that's before even deciding whether Ortiz was one of the false positives in the Mitchell report.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

I said "just on false positives" for a reason

by Ken Fowler, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:11 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

Savage makes a fair point, but for those who don't know, I pointed out that there are believed to be only 8 false positives.

Fair enough, I apologize

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:46 (3801 days ago) @ Ken Fowler

I assigned an ulterior motive to your comment, which I shouldn't have done. You were making a factual correction to help preserve a healthy skepticism, which I appreciate.

I'm Irish, you know. Sometimes we get fired up a little too quickly.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Hey, it's understandable. I'm a Yankees guy

by Ken Fowler, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:20 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan
edited by Ken Fowler, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:23

I have a healthy suspicion of Ortiz, but I can't ignore Savage's points for the most part.

All we have is a NYT article saying he was on the list that the DoJ got in the Bonds investigation. We can't be sure it's accurate (although I'd lean towards yes), and we can't be sure he wasn't one of the 8 (although the odds are not in his favor if it is accurate).

With that much doubt, Savage is right that you can't just lump him in there with the other guys. (Dollars to doughnuts, I might choose otherwise, but it's still not right to equate him with Ramirez just yet.)

My levels go like this, from most culpable to least culpable:
1. A-Rod and Braun
2. Post-2007 PED users who lied when caught
3. Pre-2007 PED users who lied when caught
4. Post-2007 PED users who admitted it when caught
5. Pre-2007 PED users who admitted it when caught
6. Players, if there are any, who used PEDs to recover from injuries, rather than for pure performance purposes

The problem is, it's really hard to be sure someone is a user or was a user. And it's even more difficult to tell if they're being honest about the reason (and amount) they used.

what's the false positive rate on the test?

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:45 (3802 days ago) @ Ken Fowler

I know for example that if you have a test with only a 5% false positive rate for a disease with a base rate of .1% of the population, that you really only have a 1/51 chance of having the disease with a positive test. Even with a test with 0.5% fpr, there's still only a 1/6 chance of having the disease with a positive test.

Especially the Boston fans jeering at Peralta.

by PAK, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:01 (3802 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)

- No text -

Here's the David Ortiz file. I'm not a huge baseball guy...

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:54 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

but based on this data, I'm seeing a borderline HOF case, by the numbers. His comparators are not inspiring and neither are his WAR numbers. He has pretty mediocre (by HOF standards) batting average, OBP, and HR numbers relative to his era.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

What's funny to me is that Papi's HOF case appears to rely more on intangibles and postseason performance than does Jeter's.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml

Bill James has him at 132, with 100 a "likely" HOFer.

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:44 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat

He's in. James has 130+ as a "virtual cinch", and Papi isn't done yet.

James' other HOF metric has him as a 44, with 50 as the "average" HOFer - but they can't all be above average.

Looking at the HOF Monitor, Ortiz is the #104 hitter all time. (My two favorite borderline HOFers, Sandberg and Puckett, are #76 and #77).

He will almost certainly pass a bunch of guys if he plays a couple more years - he may have already, if all of his WS champ/AL Champ points haven't been added yet - and that upcoming 400th HR (probably toward the end of 2014) gets him another 10 points and puts him pretty solidly in the Dave Winfield/Jim Rice area.

But for the sake of argument, if he was struck blind tomorrow and had to retire ala Puck, hitters above him who are NOT in the HOF include:

Bernie Williams
Don Mattingly
Albert Belle
Miguel Tejada
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
Craig Biggio
Mark McGwire
Todd Helton
Chipper Jones
Frank Thomas
Miggy Cabrera (#46. Wow.)
Sammy Sosa
Mike Piazza
Vlad Guerrero
Ichiro Suzuki
Manny Ramirez
Ken Griffey Jr.
Albert Pujols (#18)
Derek Jeter (#11)
Barry Bonds (#10)
Alex Rodriguez (#6)

Of that list, Bernie and Donnie baseball aren't getting in on merit, and anyone else who isn't getting in is b/c of steroids, or in the case of Belle, being a jerk.

Stan Musial is #1, FWIW.

Miggy at 46, and he's 30. Hasn't even started DHing yet.

by PAK, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:55 (3802 days ago) @ MattG

And the Tigers should have another couple good looks at the postseason without having to blow it up and start over again.

I love that guy. He's had his troubles for sure, but you can tell he really appreciates being able to play baseball for a living.

Yep, He's absolutely in

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:49 (3802 days ago) @ MattG

And everyone on that list not on steroids is as well.

What's "funny" about Jeter's?

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:36 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat

There is no question Jeter would get in on statistical merit alone.

Jack -- nothing's "funny" about Jeter's qualifications. He's

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:55 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

a first ballot guy, just by the numbers (obviously NY has gotten him more exposure). No brainer. And I've always been a Jeter fan.

What I find funny is that I'd bet many Red Sox fans would argue that Jeter will be a first ballot guy only on the strength of his postseason record and other intangibles (leader of a multiple championship team), whereas it's really Ortiz where that argument will have to be given more weight.

Yes, he'd be a HOFer even if he'd been KC's SS all this time

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:47 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

That said, wearing pinstripes helps. As Phil Rizzuto will tell you.

It is the Hall of "Fame", after all... and you're just more "famous" in NYC.

What would have gone in the gift baskets if he was in KC?

by Greg, seemingly ranch, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:55 (3802 days ago) @ MattG

- No text -

--
The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope

Heaping helpings of BBQ

by Jim (fisherj08) @, A Samoan kid's laptop, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:05 (3801 days ago) @ Greg

- No text -

Yes, but it did take about, what, 30 years for Rizzuto

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:51 (3802 days ago) @ MattG

Jeter even on the Royals wouldn't be waiting more than 5.

How about Reese's and Rizzuto's numbers?

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:06 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat
edited by Brendan, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:10

Now we're entering into the philosophical debate of how you should decide someone belongs in the Hall of Fame, so things are about to get interesting... Reese and Rizzuto, for example, each had good if unspectacular career numbers but were the leaders of dominant teams of their era. Hell, Yogi Berra's in the Hall because of clutch performances - they called him the best .285 hitter in baseball. Ortiz is the unquestioned emotional leader of a Red Sox team that just won its third World Series in the last 10 seasons, with three very different rosters, and he's come up big in every one of them. That counts for something. EDIT: And, it's worth pointing out, all four of those guys played for marquee franchises, which gives them a bump.

I don't think he's a first-ballot guy, but I do think he'll get in eventually. And I think this performance, at the end of his career, will put a powerful exclamation point on his candidacy in the voters' minds.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Those two guys played premium defensive positions

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:02 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

Ortiz is going to be an interesting test case for DHs. From a pure stats perspective, Edgar Martinez was a much better hitter than Ortiz (though Ortiz's power numbers do make it a closer comparison). And I don't think Edgar has gotten a whole lot of support for his HoF case.

Yes, but I think it was more than that

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:08 (3801 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

Look, what the hell do I know? Reese and Rizzuto both played their last game more than two decades before I was born. But with each of them, I think their contributions outside the box score are what put them over the hump. Scooter was the captain of the great Yankees juggernaut of the 40's and 50's, though, and Reese was the captain of the beloved "underdog" Dodgers and was a big part of Jackie Robinson's story.

It's also worth noting that both Reese and Rizzuto made it in via the Veterans' Committee. They're not necessarily an indication that Ortiz would be voted in.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Definitely agree on your last point

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:15 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan

The Vets love those leader/grinder/whatever types and, rightly or wrongly, put much more stock into purely subjective things like "sportsmanship," or "grittiness" or "leadership" or "classiness" or "played the game the right way."

I don't think that guys like Curt Schilling or Ortiz or Mo Rivera are going to need the Vets, but if for whatever reason they don't get in on the ballots, they will surely be thrown in by the Vets.

A little bit better, but not much better.

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:52 (3802 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

Edgar's lifetime OPS is .933
Papi's is .930 (.962 in BOS)

Edgar's OPS+ is 147
Papi's is 130 (148 in BOS)

Edgar gets the edge on hitting production alone, in a vacuum - but only barely. Papi has a bunch of hits that won games in late October on his resume, and for better or worse, his "career took off in Boston" is going to be a part of his narrative.

OK, then explain first balloter Kirby Puckett

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:40 (3802 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)
edited by Jack, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:44

Ortiz beats him in every category except batting average.

Never mind, I will - Hall-worty eventually regardless? Check. Popular with the press? Check. World Series hero? Check.

No, being a centerfielder doesn't count, because while he was a good fielder, it had squat to do with him getting into the Hall.

I'd also be curious to see

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:08 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

Who else was on the ballot when Puckett came up. Pickings have been a bit slim lately.

Puck is a top 10 all time center fielder.

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:02 (3801 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

And the 5 people who are DEFINITELY ahead of him are among the top 10 players ever to pick up a bat.

I don't think that was really a close call.

Dave Winfield was also on Kirby Puckett's ballot.

Carter, Rice, Sutter and Gossage missed, but were elected later. As was Blyleven, who was WAY down the list in 2003.

Career cut short by beanball?

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:56 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

#77 all time on Bill James' HOF Monitor, even with the injury-shortened career?

2-time Series champion, on teams that were pretty clearly outgunned once you get past Kirby Puckett batting 3rd for them?

Puck had a 130 OPS+ in his FINAL season. He was still a force up until the moment that ball hit his eye.

He got MVP votes in 9 of his 11 seasons. By any objective measure, he's one of the top 10-15 CF ever to play the game, and I think I'm aiming low there.

Doesn't matter

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:04 (3801 days ago) @ MattG

And don't get me wrong, I loved Puckett.

But both players are (were) beloved, which is what I'm talking about.

Of course it does.

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:58 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

Sometimes it is better to burn out than to fade away. Mickey Mantle went to his grave wishing he'd hung it up before his career batting average fell to exactly .299...

It's not all "peak value"... stat accumulation matters, and there's obviously a threshold - for instance, if Mike Trout had a massive coronary this offseason after gaining and losing another 40 pounds, he's not a HOFer.

But when a guy plays long enough and compiles enough stats to be a HOFer anyway, AND they either die doing something noble (ala Clemente) or suffer a career-ending injury on the field (ala Puckett), they're going to get the benefit of the doubt and be thought of more highly than peers who wound up with the same stats after a few years of fading out.

Puckett was still absolutely crushing it at age 35. It's fair to assume he would have had at least 1-2 more years of "star" left, and then maybe he'd have hung on another 3-4 years in a Craig Biggio-esque deathmarch to 3000 hits....

....but was Craig Biggio really a better HOF candidate than Puck just because he dragged out what WAS a great career through age 33, for 8-9 years of mediocre-to-bad play, posting OPS in the high .600s and mid .700s, until he was 41?

As CFs in the history of the game go, Puckett was NOT on the first tier:

Mays
Mantle
Cobb
DiMaggio
Griffey

But he fits right in with the second tier:

Speaker
Snider
Puckett
Averill

If you're in the top 10 ever to play at a crucial defensive position which ALSO boasts 5 of the top 10 ever to play regardless of position... you're a Hall of Famer.

.298

by Slainte Joe @, Raleigh, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:35 (3801 days ago) @ MattG

- No text -

Co-sign

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:04 (3801 days ago) @ MattG

- No text -

As I said...

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:12 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

I think he has a case, but it's based upon intangibles -- including his central role on the team that broke the Curse of the Bambino and won a couple more titles -- moreso than even a single dominant career stat.

And I noted in my post that numbers need to be compared within eras. But even (especially) within this era, his numbers are merely pretty good.

For example, Papi can't carry Frank Thomas' jock -- in terms of career numbers or in terms of comparing their best seasons -- and I don't think (even as a White Sox fan) that the Big Hurt is a HOF lock.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomafr04.shtml

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/tools/compare.asp

But I do believe there is much more to athletic "greatness" than is borne out by the pure numbers. He passes my sniff test as a HOF. I think there is something here in terms of how the NFL does it with the HOF, where they seem to take the approach that great teams should be represented in the HOF. I think that consideration is what breaks the dam for me with Papi (and maybe even over Thomas).

Frank Thomas will be elected 1st ballot, with 80% +

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:04 (3801 days ago) @ BillyGoat

It's not going to be close at ALL.

Are you kidding? Frank is an absolute lock

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:52 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat

Especially as a "clean" player in the steroid era. I think he'll get in first ballot.

If he gets in, he won't be first-ballot

by Mo, Charlotte, NC, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:23 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

Writers have really taken the "first-ballot" distinction to another level. I'm not saying I agree with it, but it seems as though the player needs to be a no-doubt lock to get elected first-ballot.

If Roberto Alomar doesn't get in on first ballot, I don't think Thomas does.

Guys who I think will:

Maddux
Ichiro
Jeter
Griffey
Cabrera
Pujols (provided steroid thing is not true)
Big Unit

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few

That's a good short list. But I don't agree with all of

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:33 (3801 days ago) @ Mo

them...

Maddux - yes.

Griffey - not sure. He was incredible at the beginning of his career, but I could see the BWAA knuckleheads deciding that his last 10 seasons or whatever once he started with the injuries are unworthy of a first ballot.

Unit - yes.

Pujols - yes, with your caveat.

Jeter - yes.

Cabrera - as of now, yes.

Ichiro - no.

I'd add Pedro. That guy was filthy and clutch as all hell in the postseason.

I agree on Ichiro

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:36 (3801 days ago) @ BillyGoat

Merits aside - and how dumb is that? - there are probably a number of voters who will discount his time in Japan, and in any case I think his MLB career was very good but not sure it was great.

Pedro is an excellent add - he hung around as a very good pitcher for so long that people forget how incredible his best seasons were. From 1997 to 2003, spanning his last year in Montreal and his first six years in Boston:

W-L: 118-36 (.766 win pct.)
ERA: 2.20
WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 11.3
H/9: 6.4
BB/9: 2.0
K/BB: 5.6
3 Cy Youngs

Over seven freaking years! I don't know how many seven-year stretches in baseball history could compare with that. Over his entire career, he averaged 10 K/9 (3rd all time), 7.1 H/9 (12th all time), and 4.2 K/BB (3rd all time). If you're into advanced metrics, he's 2nd all time in Adjusted ERA, 9th all time in Adjusted Pitching Wins, and 17th all time in WAR. Talk about a guy squeezing every bit of performance out of a non-prototypical body... He was amazing.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

I bet most fans forget his time in Montreal completely

by PAK, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:38 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan

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Hell, he probably wouldn't mind forgetting it too

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:54 (3801 days ago) @ PAK

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--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Poor guy lost a perfect game in extra innings

by Ken Fowler, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 14:07 (3801 days ago) @ Brendan

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I was actually at that game

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 15:53 (3801 days ago) @ Ken Fowler
edited by hobbs, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 16:03

Pedro V Joey Hamilton who himself tossed a 2 hitter. IIRC, "Bip" Roberts broke up the perfect game in the bottom of the 10th with a double.

Pedro was absolutely filthy that night. He was hard enough to hit with that 98mph fastball, cutter, and that circle change, but on that night he also had complete command of that nasty 12-6 curveball.

Gwynn was about the only Padre batter who wasn't completely over matched and Gywnn was even working hard to just fight off pitches to stay alive.

Still as dominant as he was I still say the most impressive game I've ever seen thrown was an hour and 40 minute job thrown by Greg Maddux against the Padres that same year. Unlike Pedro Maddux didn't blow guys always with overpowering stuff. You understood how Pedro was getting outs. Maddux was just baffling. He topped out about 88 and just confounded professional hitters with movement, change of speeds, and pinpoint control. To this day I haven't seen another pitcher freeze more guys on stuff in the low 80s than Maddux. And when he wasn't freezing guys he would serve something up that guys could do nothing with except helplessly beat it into the ground.

Wait, GRIFFEY?

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:06 (3801 days ago) @ BillyGoat

Griffey is one of the top 10 players ever to play the game.

He's going into the hall with 95+% in his first year. Dude has 600 HR as a CF.

You might as well try to exclude Willie Mays.

NOT my own opinion. But trying to predict what the

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:39 (3801 days ago) @ MattG

Writers will do. I hope you are right. He deserves it, IMO.

I agree that Thomas *should* be in. It's very hard to

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:29 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

predict what the stupid writers will do with their unwritten rules, in terms of who will and won't be in.

Particularly with the "new" positions of closers and DHs.

I think Thomas will suffer because of his personality

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:57 (3801 days ago) @ BillyGoat

And I don't mean his grumpiness, I mean that for better or worse he wasn't a lot of things that Papi is. He was relatively quite, uncontroversial, workmanlike, productive. I make no judgments on whether that's good or bad - quite frankly I don't really care and it wouldn't enter into my evaluation - but voters do seem to consider that stuff. Personality can overshadow production; they can forget that Thomas was the dominant run producer in the game for a considerable stretch because he was a quiet guy.

I agree with the rules for admission being completely arbitrary. It's ridiculous. Ty Cobb was as big a bastard as has ever played the game and he got in on his first ballot of the inaugural class. Meanwhile, Albert Belle, who has very respectable career numbers - .295 avg, .933 OPS, 381 homers, 389 doubles, 1239 RBI's, 9 consecutive years with at least 100 RBI's, 8 consecutive years with at least 30 HR - can't even get a sniff because the writers hate him. I'm not comparing Belle to Cobb as a player, obviously, and I'm not necessarily making a case for Belle to be in the Hall of Fame. It's just that the inconsistency of the voters is maddening. Belle only appeared on two ballots, collecting 7.7% on his first and 3.5% on his second. He was better than that.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

There are only 40-some 1st ballot hall of famers.

by PAK, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:57 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

I agree that he is in, no doubt, but being a 1st ballot guy is an honor that sports writers do not throw around very lightly, especially for a guy who spent so much of his career on the bench as a DH.

DH is a position in baseball

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:08 (3801 days ago) @ PAK
edited by Jack, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:17

It should make no difference. And his best years hitting were when he was playing first anyway. First basemen and leftfielders do not get in due to fielding in the first place, so it really shouldn't be relevant when you get right down to it.

The only players eligible for the Hall but not yet in with a higher lifetime OPS are Bonds and McGwire, who, like Thomas, both walked a hell of a lot, but they obviously won't be getting in soon. His OPS is almost 100 points higher than Sammy Sosa's.

I'm not a White Sox fan

by Deshi Basara, Indy, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:49 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat

But it would be a crime if the Big Hurt was left out of the Hall, IMO. He's a .300/.400/.500 guy, and there are only 7 of those in baseball history, all amazing players (Cobb, Ruth, Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Chipper Jones, and Stan the Man.)

Sure, this will open up the debate about how to choose Hall candidates, but that's pretty rarefied air.

I bet he'll be making his speech in about 9 months

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:54 (3802 days ago) @ Deshi Basara

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He'll get in

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:55 (3802 days ago) @ Deshi Basara

It might take longer than it should because there are some incredible guys coming on the ballot in the next handful of years. But I can't envision a scenario in which he's not in the HoF.

There is no limit on the number of players in any year

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:00 (3802 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

I fully expect Maddux, Glavine and Thomas to get, especially since no one got voted in last year. Maybe Piazza and Schilling, too.

Isn't there a mathematical limit?

by MattG, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 13:09 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

You have to be on 75% of ballots, and voters can only select 10 players on their ballot.

Which means that the number of electable players in a given year is something greater than 10, but less than 15, right?

Sure, but voters can only put 10 names on the ballot

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 11:03 (3801 days ago) @ Jack

And this is the first time in quite a while that there are going to be at least 10 guys with legitimate cases.

And those numbers were inflated by cheating.

by Kevin @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:20 (3802 days ago) @ BillyGoat

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He's in the Hall, no question. Maybe first ballot

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:31 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

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I don't think so

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:15 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

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I didn't say he deserves it. That's completely different

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:34 (3802 days ago) @ Jay
edited by Jack, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:46

I don't think he should be in on the first ballot, but I think he will get in on the first ballot. I do think he should get in eventually.

But you know, it doesn't say "first ballot Hall of Famer" on the plaque, so I don't care that much.

His speech would be great.

by Pat (Moco), Bar, Urban Chophouse Short North, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:48 (3802 days ago) @ Jay

"I'm so happy to be a member of this fucking hall of fame."

Imagine if Ozzie Guillen ever got into the Hall

by Jack @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:47 (3802 days ago) @ Pat (Moco)

They'd have to have a 7 minute delay, not a 7 second delay.

See my post above-- not so fast, my friend.

by BillyGoat, At Thanksgiving with Joe Bethersontin, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:02 (3802 days ago) @ Jack

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Still can't believe that guys career transformation

by hobbs, San Diego, CA, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:05 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan
edited by hobbs, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:11

from being released outright by the Twinkies to a possible HoF career in leading one of MLB glamor teams to 3 world series championships in one of sports most pressurized markets.

Ortiz was even riding the pine in Boston behind Jeremy Giambi until G. Little tired of his clown shoes act and gave Ortiz a shot. The rest, as they say, is history.

Steroids.

by Rob, Buffalo, NY, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 12:43 (3801 days ago) @ hobbs

Now it makes sense.

He also seemed like he was done 2-3 years ago

by Jeremy (WeIsND), Offices of Babip Pecota Vorp & Eckstein, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 09:57 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

And now he's back to being as great as he was in his "prime." I hate to say it, but a cynical person might consider that a bit suspicious.

Alternate explanation

by Greg, seemingly ranch, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 10:05 (3802 days ago) @ Jeremy (WeIsND)

His body was literally falling apart because of the PEDs he had done up to that point; he and his team of trainers have responded with "just barely legal" supplements to help him rebuild the stuff he destroyed when he was using in the 2003-2007 time frame. At this point, the fear of a positive test is huge for him because he is looking at the twilight of his career and he needs to keep his image up for post-baseball opportunities more than anything. So he's not cheating because of that risk, but he's walking as close to the line as he can get in order to eke out a few last good seasons before he knows he's done. And the down years two to four years ago were the by-product of the cheating that came before; he's just now been able to overcome the prior stresses on his body put there by the excess muscle.

This may not be the correct explanation, but it's an alternate and one that isn't overly naive.

--
The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope

for all that hitting, he didn't do a ton of damage

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 06:59 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

He had six RBIs for the series. They pitched to him because the bases were mostly empty when he came to bat.

Weird stat: the Cards actually outhit Boston in the series (even with Papi's line).

Aside from snatching Game 2 away from St. L, you mean?

by Slainte Joe @, Raleigh, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:28 (3802 days ago) @ Jay

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he was an on-base monster

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:41 (3802 days ago) @ Slainte Joe
edited by Jay, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:57

Not minimizing his hitting performance in the slightest. But in the end the Sox won the series on others' timely hits. Game 2, for example: Papi's 2-run shot didn't hold up. And over the last three games he scored 4 and drove in 1. Meanwhile Gomes, Ross, and Victorino delivered the big game changers. And I would have given the MVP to Lackey or Lester, who had more to do with winning the series than Papi.

Well, you could make the case that he added pressure

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 07:19 (3802 days ago) @ Jay

He did score 7 times, so with the 6 RBIs he directly accounted for 11 runs in six games (taking out two for the double-counting in his two home runs). Almost two runs per game isn't shabby. Pedroia basically sucked, but Ortiz's presence had to have made a difference in what he saw at the plate anyway.

It's certainly not the most dominating World Series performance, or even close to it, because of the run production. But it was pretty damned good and I think set the tone for his team.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Only 19 more to go, Sox fans.

by Slainte Joe @, Raleigh, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 05:36 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

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Sox

by Grantland, y'allywood, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 05:30 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

Pretty odd, wild series.

by San Pedro @, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 05:23 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

You won't find stranger back to back game ending plays than we saw in games 3 and 4. And the erros. Oh, the errors. What a combination of outstanding pitching and piss poor defense from both sides. On a personal note, it's been a surreal experience taking care of my two week old daughter during this playoff run. I'm getting all news from the outside world filtered through Buck, mccarver hicks and Mayock. I am going to pretend Aaron Taylor didn't work the afa game.

The Cards will go far with that young pitching staff in the future. They just need a bat or two.

disgruntled Tigers fan here

by JD in Portland @, Portland OR, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 20:38 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs
edited by JD in Portland, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 20:43

Boston played well in all phases and deserved their Series win.
Ortiz was unbelievable. Great pitching.
But man those beards are ridiculous. They look like homeless guys or just disgusting morons.
I'm glad i don't have to look at them one more night.
I bet their locker room has lice.
In other words, fuck em.
Next year is our year, Cabrera will be healthy....
So, ND nat'l championship and Tigers World Series win in same year...plus Golson Heisman, Miggy triple crown, 30 wins for Verlander....

I'm with you on this one

by Mo, Charlotte, NC, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:37 (3802 days ago) @ JD in Portland

Looking at this series and the way the Cards played, I can't help but think the Tigers just gave away the ALCS, even with Cabrera hurt. We should have been going back to the D 2-0 in that series. Very disheartening.

I'm very confident about next year, though. Hopefully Caberea will be 100%, and there's no way Scherzer is getting traded. Ilitich wants a WS championship too badly. Plus, it will be the last year with Martinez, Hunter, and probably Scherzer.

Fix the bullpen, and we'll be okay.

Not sure if I should laugh or be offended, but...

by Jim (OFD) @, Naptown, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 06:36 (3802 days ago) @ JD in Portland

my wife's cousin (a huge Tigers fan) made a comment during the Detroit-Boston series that left me wondering just that.

He said he thought the Al-Qaeda beards that the BoSox were sporting were really in poor taste.

NOTE: Given the sensitive nature of the reference, I completely understand if this comment gets deleted.

A hockey writer comment last night...

by PAK, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 06:49 (3802 days ago) @ Jim (OFD)

Why do hockey playoff beards come in so glorious while these red sox players look like hobos?

I mean, compare this:

[image]

to those... things... the Red Sox had all season. It's just baffling.

"I don't remember this part of The Hobbit."

by Slainte Joe @, Raleigh, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 05:37 (3802 days ago) @ JD in Portland

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Apparently the B's put them up to it.

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 20:43 (3802 days ago) @ JD in Portland

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That Beckett-Gonzalez-Crawford deal looks pretty good now

by Brendan ⌂ @, The Chemical and Oil Refinery State, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 20:36 (3802 days ago) @ hobbs

Objectively there was good reason to think it looked good at the time for both sides, but it sure felt like the Sox were blowing it up and starting over. Excellent job by the whole organization.

--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats

Was really hoping for multiple seasons in the cellar

by BPH, San Diego, Wednesday, October 30, 2013, 21:56 (3802 days ago) @ Brendan

I'm still not quite sure how they did it. I thought that lineup was going to be a disaster this year. I'm also bummed that the Cards couldn't find a way to force a Game 7, because I'm fairly certain Peavy would have stunk up the joint again.

I still can't figure it out.

by KGB, Belly o. the Beast, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:25 (3802 days ago) @ BPH
edited by KGB, Thursday, October 31, 2013, 08:55

That lineup looks pretty mediocre on paper. Daniel Nava in the 5-hole? The Artist Formerly Known As Stephen Drew? Jonny Gomes? Hell, the Reds essentially threw Jonny Gomes in the trash. But there's no arguing with 853 runs scored, I guess.

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