the Polo Grounds

Back to the forum index
Linear

football metrics

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 10:59
edited by Jay, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:15

I whipped this up thinking about the different ways to analyze football games, and the different levels you can look at. Games are made up of drives, and drives are made up of 4-down series, and series are made up of plays. And some measurements have been developed to look at each level. Supe's "y-score", for instance, goes down to the play level. Fremeau's FEI looks at drives and possessions.

I think most people look at outcomes and then dive straight down to per-play measurements. I like FEI and drive-based measurements (like Available Yards) because plays don't happen in isolation: oftentimes it's the combination of plays that make for a good offense (or bad offense).

"Drive Efficiency" is another good one that I don't see anybody doing for college football (FO does it for the NFL). It's basically the percentage of first downs + touchdowns / # of 4-down series.

[image]

Tags:
charts, stats

locked
  693 views

At a high level...

by Jim (OFD) @, Naptown, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 16:34 @ Jay

I think a high level metric like total yards per point scored could go a long way in describing overall offensive efficiency. An efficient offense would net out around 10 yards per point.

locked
  338 views

Comic Sans, eh?

by oaknd1 ⌂, Notre Dame, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 15:33 @ Jay

Courageous.

passive aggressive smiley face :)

---
It's really pathetic when someone includes a link to their Twitter profile in their signature.

locked
  371 views

Chalkboard!

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 16:03 @ oaknd1

[ No text ]

locked
  325 views

(grumble grumble)

by oaknd1 ⌂, Notre Dame, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 16:52 @ Jay

[ No text ]

---
It's really pathetic when someone includes a link to their Twitter profile in their signature.

locked
  317 views

Oh my.

by irishoutsider @, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 13:55 @ Jay

[ No text ]

locked
  361 views

THIS IS AWESOME

by Supe ⌂, VA, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 13:41 @ Jay

At work now - I will respond more later

locked
  393 views

I've played with some series data.

by LaFortune Teller ⌂ @, South Bend, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 12:20 @ Jay

I think I want to do more, but I haven't had an opportunity to dig into as much data there. See the top right charts:

[image]

locked
  416 views

I've been thinking about a way to visualize a drive chart

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 15:14 @ LaFortune Teller

Something similar to a baseball inning line, you know, like:

0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 | 3
1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 - | 4

I think you could it with symbols or colors and easily show opportunities missed & made on a per drive basis.

locked
  359 views

On yards-per-play

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:41 @ Jay

This stat just feels incomplete by only looking at averages without also looking at standard deviations, which would bring some sense of how consistently or "chunkily" a team gets its yards.

Consider a team that has a 50% chance of an 8-yard gain and a 50% of no gain on every play. That team is going to have a drive stall when only one-of-three after a first down come up 8 yards, which will be 50% of the time. It's YPP will average a 4.

Consider another team that has a 100% chance of a 4-yard run on every play. That team is going to have a time consuming TD on every drive. It will never lose. It's YPP will average 4.

I guess the mean in and of itself isn't useless, and coming up with standard deviations is probably unbelievably time consuming work, but I just can't bring myself to care too much about the average yards per play without more of the picture being exposed. Does anybody in the #SPORTSMATH universe produce these numbers?

locked
  423 views

i think you can guess my bias

by Supe ⌂, VA, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 17:25 @ Tim

I like the ypp because I think it's non-judgmental. While the big plays can skew it - over time, the larger numbers help to average it out.

So - at this point in the season, we can determine's ND's success by 4 data points (3-1 record). Or by 560 data points (assume 70 plays game for two teams for four games).

Granted, with the mix of big vs small plays can skew that, but the volume of data creates a very powerful simple metric.

I think what ypp is missing is a measure of ultimate drive/series success. So, I find measures that are based on a drive basis compelling. Although, I would argue that, at its core, the ypp is a core metric of ability. And a mix of drive/series + a measure of turnovers/special teams would be a very compelling measure.

locked
  326 views

exactly why I like the drive-based stats

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 15:11 @ Tim

You're exactly right that the long plays can skew the yards per play averages quite a bit. So which is the better offense: the one that hit an 80 yard bomb but went three and out the other three times, or the one that moved the ball effectively on all four drives, but without the long bomb?

locked
  354 views

I think plays can be "won" or "lost" independent of yardage

by Jeff (BGS), A starter home in suburban Tempe, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 18:21 @ Jay

Not completely independent, but gaining 1 yard on 3rd and 1 is a "win" for the offense, while gaining 9 yards on 3rd and 10 is a "loss". A 6 yard gain on 1st and 10 might also be considered a "win" while a 6 yard gain on 3rd and 7+ is again a "loss". I suppose that is what you are going at with the series measure, but the per-play metrics always seemed a bit suspect to me.

locked
  325 views

This is an excellent point I hadn't considered.

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Wednesday, September 25, 2013, 07:06 @ Jeff (BGS)

[ No text ]

locked
  291 views

definitely. We kicked this around before

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 20:17 @ Jeff (BGS)

Maybe dumb question: series is a subset of drives?

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:40 @ Jay

[ No text ]

locked
  406 views

just shorthand for a 4-down series

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:42 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

A drive may have one or more 4-down series.

locked
  414 views

Thx. I guess I'd never verbalized it that way. Makes sense.

by MHB (Rakes of Mallow), Chicago, IL, United States, Earth-199999, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 12:17 @ Jay

[ No text ]

locked
  367 views

I assume series begins on 1st down

by Tim, Chicago, IL, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:42 @ MHB (Rakes of Mallow)

[ No text ]

locked
  386 views

BTW, Pat Forde was complaining about the NCAA site.

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:12 @ Jay

I was too busy yesterday, but I noticed he was complaining about the new site layout on Twitter yesterday. I wanted to dig up the e-mail address this gang had found and send it to him. He had, essentially, very similar complaints as this board.

---
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

locked
  461 views

Mark posted this the other day

by Domer99, John Wesley Powell's Expedition Island, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:53 @ domer.mq

http://bluegraysky.com/forum/index.php?id=172083

Apparently the name is Jeffrey S. Williams.
jswilliams@ncaa.org

locked
  404 views

that's awesome

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:09 @ Jay

I've been thinking of something similar as well.

The other important concept might be how data is cleaned (what is the definition of garbage time or other dropped data) and normalized.

locked
  463 views

Getting the data is more difficult, but you also have the

by Jason93, Raining debris all over Europe, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:22 @ HumanRobot

individual player performances/decisions on every play on both sides of the ball. The play is essentially the aggregation of the individual performances.

EDIT

This would also vary from team to team and would require knowledge of the play call, etc, so probably only available as internal metric.

---
I think the children like it when I "get down" verbally.

locked
  430 views

Individual Player Grades

by PBurns ⌂ @, Ah Denver, the Sunshine State. Beautiful, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:52 @ Jason93

If they could be somewhat normalized, could realistically be combined with some of these statistics. To what end, I have no idea.

---
Just run 4 verts

locked
  392 views

garbage time, SOS, FCS competition, kneeldowns

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:14 @ HumanRobot

short yardage situations. All things that can prejudice the data. (Is that a real phrase? "Prejudice the data"?)

And there's there situational cuts: Home/Away, Night/Day, for example. In the Red Zone. Or 3rd down. Running the ball. Passing the ball.

locked
  450 views

Probably "skew" or "confound" rather than "prejudice".

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 15:10 @ Jay

[ No text ]

locked
  324 views
374417 Postings in 32688 Threads, 204 registered users, 98 users online (6 registered, 92 guests)
Contact
powered by my little forum