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rivals stars of first round picks

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:38

[image]


* as many 2-stars (unranked) as 5-stars

* split between 2/3 and 4/5 about even

* top overall pick was a 2-star


players:

Tags:
charts, draft

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interesting that nearly all of the 3- and 2-star players

by Spesh ⌂ @, Los Angeles, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:43 @ Jay
edited by Spesh, Friday, April 26, 2013, 12:30

were Big Skill. I think all of them but two were, and both of those were CBs.

EDIT: Not Big Skill. I meant Power.

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Of those, avg. height is 6'5"

by Mike (bart), Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:56 @ Spesh

and that's including the DTs, who are of a stout derivation. A decent piece of data for the "profiling" school of thought. Probably supports the NFL-esque focus on 'measurables."

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I think this year is exceptionally wonky

by HumanRobot @, Cybertron, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:14 @ Jay

what with the high number of OL that were drafted. Wasn't there some study from a couple years back that OL was one of the least correlated between star rating and NFL selection?

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Yep

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:48 @ HumanRobot

re: "unranked as 5-stars"

by PAK, Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:46 @ Jay

Compare the raw numbers of each.

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Are you saying that there are more 2-stars than 5-stars?

by CK08, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:13 @ PAK

So even though the same number went in the first round, a higher percentage of the total 5-stars were first round draft picks?

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Yes that is what I was getting at. Numbers in my post below.

by PAK, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:20 @ CK08

[ No text ]

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?

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:52 @ PAK

[ No text ]

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Comparing number of 2 stars drafted vs. 5 stars drafted...

by PAK, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:19 @ Jay

without also comparing total number of 2 stars recruits vs. 5 star recruits is kinda useless.

In 2008, when most of these guys signed their LOIs, 2 star recruits made up 53.8% of the total number of NCAA FBS signees. 5 star recruits made up 1.2%.

To put it another way:

2.7% of 5 star players became 1st round draft picks.
0.067% of 2 star players became 1st round draft picks.

Source

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old TPG topic here

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:32 @ PAK

Without rehashing everything, see precision vs recall, etc: http://www.bluegraysky.com/forum/index.php?id=86534

[image]

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I imagine he's getting at

by Pete, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:14 @ Jay

what we also mention when discussing this issue. There are WAY more unranked players than five-stars. So pointing to the draft to somehow suggest that the whole thing is a crapshoot is misguided. NFL teams may end up drafting as many unranked recruits as five-star studs, but the percentage of successes is significantly higher in the five-star pool than with the also-rans.

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More millionaire high school dropouts than Harvard grads

by Flann, Central New Jersey, Friday, April 26, 2013, 15:20 @ Pete

[ No text ]

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yeah, but

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:37 @ Pete
edited by Jay, Friday, April 26, 2013, 10:40

I mean, anybody can pick al-Zawahiri out of a lineup and identify him as a 5-star terrorist and stop him from coming into the country. It's those 2- and 3-star terrorism recruits who might be just as dangerous.

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You'd think NFL GMs would be immune to groupthink

by Dylan, Santa Barbara, CA, Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:45 @ Jay

But last night was like that moment in every fantasy football draft when the run on tight ends happens. The Bears were the guy who picked Owen Daniels in the third round.

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Why was Pugh's score so low?

by NDTerp, I am not Jay. I never have been Jay., Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:42 @ Jay

Does he have small arms or something?

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apprently so

by Jay ⌂, San Diego, Friday, April 26, 2013, 09:44 @ NDTerp

Maybe he would have graded higher if people thought of him as a OG.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/justin-pugh?id=2540195

BOTTOM LINE Pugh is a seasoned starter at offensive tackle with very good movement skills. However, he lacks adequate arm length and size to stick at offensive tackle going forward. His best fit will likely be as an offensive guard in a zone-blocking scheme.

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