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I'm confused

by ndphilo @, Seal Beach, Thursday, December 07, 2017, 15:40 @ Jack
edited by ndphilo, Thursday, December 07, 2017, 15:45

Your post starts disagreeing with me, and then you go on to seem to make exactly the point I was making.

There are 4 democrats who wouldn't be there if a more moderate Republican won the primary. If establishment Republicans boot Moore, that will only anger the anti-establishment wing of the party. My suggestion is that anger over this may drive turnout and result in more anti-establishment candidates winning primaries. Such candidates will either go on to win the general election (bad for McConnell) or lose to dems (as in your examples, also bad for McConnell).

If the establishment candidate does pull out the primary, greater anger will make it harder to turn out the anti-establishment voters, which might tip close races that could have been won otherwise (bad for McConnell).

Making the fight between establishment and anti-establishment Rs worse in no way benefits McConnell. The only play is to try to make peace, and keep all oars pulling in the same direction. That may not be possible, but its the only option with any upside. That is why my guess is they will seat Moore.


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