He'll play one more season in college no matter what
If he gets clearance to play immediately, he'll play 2018 and head to the draft. If not, he'll play 2019 and head to the draft. As you might imagine for a kid who was looking at LSU and ended up at Ole Miss, academics are an afterthought at best. One way or another, he's a one and done.
So Harbaugh brought in two transfer QBs in 2015 - Jake Rudock from Iowa as a grad transfer, and John O'Korn from Houston as a standard transfer - and is now seeking to bring in another for 2018 in Patterson. Shane Morris left as a grad transfer last year, and Wilton Speight and Alex Malzone are headed out as grad transfers this year. That is a metric shit ton of churn in the QB room, which can't make redshirt freshman Brandon Peters or true freshman Dylan McCaffrey too comfortable.
Speaking of the young 'uns, let's talk about QB development under Harbaugh:
I submit as evidence... Other than Luck, every QB he has had has either held steady, regressed, or gone on to play better elsewhere. To wit:
- 2012 Kaep: 13 games, 98.3 rating (NFL scale), 62.4% comp, 8.3 ypa, 10 TD, 3 INT
- 2013 Kaep: 16 games, 91.6 rating, 58.4% comp, 7.7 ypa, 21 TD, 8 INT
- 2014 Kaep: 16 games, 86.4 rating, 60.5% comp, 7.0 ypa, 19 TD, 10 INT
- 2014 Rudock (Iowa): 12 games, 133.5 rating, 61.7% comp, 7.1 ypa, 16 TD, 5 INT.
- 2015 Rudock: 12 games, 141.5 rating, 64% comp, 7.8 ypa, 20 TD, 9 INT (a little better but nothing that normal junior-senior progression couldn't account for, and in fact similar to Rudock's 2013-2014 improvement)
- 2015 Morris: Couldn't get on the field.
- 2016 Morris: Attempted 5 passes in six games.
- 2017 Morris (CMU): 12 games, 130.2 rating, 55.5% comp, 7.1 ypa, 26 TD, 13 INT (before you chuckle, note that this stat line is better than anyone who played for Michigan this season)
- 2016 Speight: 12 games, 139.8 rating, 61.6% comp, 7.7 ypa, 18 TD, 7 INT
- 2017 Speight: 3+ games, 121.9 rating, 54.3% comp, 7.2 ypa, 3 TD, 2 INT
- 2016 O'Korn: 8 games (34 attempts), 121.0 rating, 58.8% comp, 5.1 ypa, 2 TD, 0 INT
- 2017 O'Korn: 9 games, 101.2 rating, 53.2% comp, 6.1 ypa, 2 TD, 6 INT
Sample size warnings abound in there, of course. But it's interesting and worth tracking, at least.
It's entirely possible that Harbaugh's reputation as a QB genius comes from having (1) Andrew Luck and (2) a year of Kaepernick before the NFL figured out how to adjust to him.
It's possible I'm completely wrong, too, of course. But it's food for thought at least.
--
"Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." - Yeats
Complete thread:
- Harbaugh may have solved his QB problem -
Buffalo,
2017-12-06, 10:25
- In other news, Urbs just lost a 5 star DE - scriptcomesfirst, 2017-12-06, 16:54
- ehhh...seems like a very Charlie Weis move to me -
Mike (bart),
2017-12-06, 12:40
- Yeah, but Patterson is a really good and experienced QB -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 12:57
- He'll play one more season in college no matter what -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 13:39
- Oh, that is 100% possible - Jack, 2017-12-06, 14:01
- Might I step in here? -
Chris,
2017-12-06, 13:10
- Why yes, yes you may - Jack, 2017-12-06, 13:20
- He'll play one more season in college no matter what -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 13:39
- Yeah, but Patterson is a really good and experienced QB -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 12:57
- And supposedly he might bring a couple teammates with him - BPH, 2017-12-06, 12:04
- How a guy from Toledo ended up at Ole Miss -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 11:17
- He was born in Toledo -
Jeremy (WeIsND),
2017-12-06, 12:31
- Ah, the old get the brother a job game -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 12:35
- He was committed to LSU first -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 13:08
- Considering Harbaugh hired Chris Partridge to land -
BillyGoat,
2017-12-06, 13:22
- That is decidedly not good recruiting, btw. -
KGB,
2017-12-06, 13:32
- Wonder how Peters and McCaffrey will react -
Jeremy (WeIsND),
2017-12-06, 14:40
- Harbaugh might get both of them to stay -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 14:46
- If he thought that either one was the answer - KGB, 2017-12-06, 16:30
- Seems like he's getting pretty desperate to win - Jeremy (WeIsND), 2017-12-06, 15:09
- Harbaugh might get both of them to stay -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 14:46
- Oh, it's ridiculous and it isn't sustainable. I thought it - BillyGoat, 2017-12-06, 13:44
- That's ridiculous - Greg, 2017-12-06, 13:36
- Wonder how Peters and McCaffrey will react -
Jeremy (WeIsND),
2017-12-06, 14:40
- That is decidedly not good recruiting, btw. -
KGB,
2017-12-06, 13:32
- Maybe Duke and Coach K could make an offer - Greg, 2017-12-06, 13:10
- Considering Harbaugh hired Chris Partridge to land -
BillyGoat,
2017-12-06, 13:22
- He was committed to LSU first -
Brendan,
2017-12-06, 13:08
- Ah, the old get the brother a job game -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 12:35
- Who was the recruit to Zook-era Illinois -
CK08,
2017-12-06, 12:31
- Martez Wilson - HullieAndMikes, 2017-12-06, 12:47
- Aurelious Benn? -
Jack,
2017-12-06, 12:35
- Benn was another package deal... - mkmcfrlnd, 2017-12-07, 05:50
- He was born in Toledo -
Jeremy (WeIsND),
2017-12-06, 12:31
- Only if he wins an appeal to play early -
HullieAndMikes,
2017-12-06, 10:30
- It's not us so he'll win the appeal. -
Chris,
2017-12-06, 11:04
- A logical assumption -
HullieAndMikes,
2017-12-06, 11:11
- As part of the transfer, the NCAA will also likely require -
Jeff (BGS),
2017-12-06, 11:20
- In perpetuity, and ND will be required to keep UM on the - Jason93, 2017-12-06, 14:41
- As part of the transfer, the NCAA will also likely require -
Jeff (BGS),
2017-12-06, 11:20
- A logical assumption -
HullieAndMikes,
2017-12-06, 11:11
- It's not us so he'll win the appeal. -
Chris,
2017-12-06, 11:04