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Team Recruiting vs NFL Talent Produced

by suave_andrew, Tuesday, November 19, 2013, 06:40
edited by suave_andrew, Tuesday, November 19, 2013, 06:45

I posted a version of this a few years ago and thought it'd be a good time to refresh as we approach the end of the regular season and begin 'draft season'.

- The average rating on the 'x-axis' is the team's long-run average rating, not the average rating of specific players. The comparison is the average team rating versus the total number of NFL players produced in that time frame.

- The draft year is similar to a bowl year in that the year of the draft is +1 over the season played (i.e. this year will be the 2014 draft).

- Recruiting scores are more correlated with the amount of NFL talent that a team produces (~80% over a long time frame) than it is with the winning percentage of a team (If I remember correctly, about 35-40%).

- Overall I'd say that Rivals does a pretty good job at evaluating football talent if you view their role as evaluating the future prospects of players, not necessarily a player's ability to contribute to a football program's success.

- The blue dot is Notre Dame. ND has recovered closer to the 'expected' line since the last time I did this. Weis had great recruiting scores but much lower than expected contribution of players to the NFL. The team that has contributed the most NFL talent is USC, but they've largely regressed towards expectations since Pete Carroll left.




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