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Some charting of talent in college football

by suave_andrew, Thursday, October 10, 2013, 19:47

I've been keeping track of a weighted talent index statistic over the past few years. I actually thought about making some posts about some of this in the summer but never found the time.

My yearly talent index is nothing more than a team's rivals rating divided by the average rivals rating for every team that year. This generally filters out the 'rating inflation' that has occurred as more and more players are rated each year and you have a lot more three star players heading to smaller programs simply due to more players being rated and not because those programs have improved their talent pools. The index makes it more of an apples-to-apples comparison.

The four-year index rating are the yearly indexes weighted by the number of players in each of the four previous year's recruiting classes.

On the chart below, the "max" and "min" are whomever has the most and least talent in a given year.

My takeaways below are:
1) The difference between an average team and the most talented teams are shrinking generally, but there still remains a major have's and have-not's gap.

2) I would argue that ND has not closed the talent gap between itself and whomever is considered the most talent-laded team since Weis has left. Thankfully, it has not dropped off either. Given that Kelly's M.O. coming into Notre Dame was player development, it's not ideal, but also not necessarily bad that ND has more or less only maintained its relative talent levels. It might actually be an accomplishment given the amount of stress from the fan base that recruiting would suffer under Kelly.


The explanation below is that the compound annual growth rate is quantifying how well teams have grown their talent on average on a year-to-year basis since 2005. Posting these ones without commenting and wondering if anything stands out?




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