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football metrics

by Jay ?, San Diego, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 10:59
edited by Jay, Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 11:15

I whipped this up thinking about the different ways to analyze football games, and the different levels you can look at. Games are made up of drives, and drives are made up of 4-down series, and series are made up of plays. And some measurements have been developed to look at each level. Supe's "y-score", for instance, goes down to the play level. Fremeau's FEI looks at drives and possessions.

I think most people look at outcomes and then dive straight down to per-play measurements. I like FEI and drive-based measurements (like Available Yards) because plays don't happen in isolation: oftentimes it's the combination of plays that make for a good offense (or bad offense).

"Drive Efficiency" is another good one that I don't see anybody doing for college football (FO does it for the NFL). It's basically the percentage of first downs + touchdowns / # of 4-down series.

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