I think it depends as much on the "quality" of the loss.

by Greg, seemingly ranch, Monday, March 08, 2010, 13:34 (5936 days ago) @ MadisonDomer

Let's look at this year's ND team. If ND opened with a loss to Purdue, we would immediately be viewed as being a non-contender and subsequent wins over Michigan, MSU, etc., would probably not be enough to change that perception unless we ran the table and then beat a strong SC team to close the season. Conversely, a close loss to MSU after a couple of strong wins might be viewed as a setback, but not a fatal one, if we ran the table.

Similarly, a string of big wins through the first 2/3 of the season, with a 2-point loss against a Utah team that was itself undefeated at the time (but which subsequently lost) from which we rebounded to wax Army and a good SC team while all other remaining contenders wound up losing at least one would maybe be enough to get us in. Conversely, running the table and then losing to a mediocre SC team in the last game of the year would almost certainly relegate us to being also-rans.

So it's when you lose, to whom you lose, and what you have left after the loss to make up for it.

And that's not even taking into account what else happens the week you lose. Consider that other teams lost on the day Michigan lost to Applachian State, but we really can't remember who those teams were -- so their losses wouldn't hurt them as much in the overall scheme of things. Similarly, I can recall weekends in November where it seemed like each set of games throughout the day (noon ET, 3:30 ET, 7:30-8:00 ET) provided greater upsets, with the upshot being that the team that lost early in the day was overshadowed by day's end.