What your various recruiting data tells me...

by BPH, San Diego, Friday, February 26, 2010, 18:46 (5946 days ago) @ FunkDoctorSpock

is that Kelly is fortunate enough to step into a rare opportunity - going to a power program that has been down to the point that a coaching change was needed, yet still possesses elite, top-10 talent.

Look at the successful coaches who have taken over power programs in the last decade. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first season. Nick Saban went 7-6. Bob Stoops and Jim Tressel went 7-5. Mark Richt was a little better at 8-4.

With the usual caveat that Crist stays healthy, there's no reason why Kelly should need a year to hit his stride as those coaches did. The players are in place for Kelly to make a BCS bowl right off the bat - similar to Weis, I suppose, except the hope is that Kelly will take the program to an even higher level after the first couple seasons rather than crashing and burning.

I've posited this before, but I could see Kelly's path at ND hewing closely to that of Meyer at Florida, with Weis playing the role of Zook as the mediocre coach who nonetheless set a fine table from a talent standpoint. Meyer won nine games in his first season (I expect 10 from Kelly, in part because of an extra game), then won it all in Year 2 (I expect Kelly to at least make a good run with Crist a senior in his second season as a starter). Meyer then took a step back in Year 3 (as Kelly probably will after the stellar 2008 class graduates) before turning into a perennial juggernaut in Year 4.

(Yes, I have very high hopes for Kelly. Sue me.)