Not to mention the backups...
Guys like Filer, Cwynar, Neal, Stockton, Motta, McDonald, McCarthy, G. Gray, etc., who were all consensus 4 star recruits, and most of whom were recruited by the best of the best (Ohio State, Florida, LSU, USC, etc).
If Kelly made a good choice in Diaco...
there's no reason the defense shouldn't make a huge jump into the top 25 or so.
Besides Te'o, every projected starter will be an upperclassmen.
Besides Williams, every projected starter will be at least a Rivals 4-star player.
The key will be the defense.
Between Kelly's track record, the returning starters, and raw talent, I think the offense will at least be solid. This isn't anything like DickRod tearing apart Michigan's offense to run a completely different system.
But I think the defense is capable of making a huge jump forward. Not only do we return 9 starters, including the entire front seven, but the majority of the two deep.
The offense jumped from 65th to 8th last year. If the defense can make a similar leap, from 86th to around Top 30 or so then I think we could make a BCS game.
We shall see.
What your various recruiting data tells me...
is that Kelly is fortunate enough to step into a rare opportunity - going to a power program that has been down to the point that a coaching change was needed, yet still possesses elite, top-10 talent.
Look at the successful coaches who have taken over power programs in the last decade. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first season. Nick Saban went 7-6. Bob Stoops and Jim Tressel went 7-5. Mark Richt was a little better at 8-4.
With the usual caveat that Crist stays healthy, there's no reason why Kelly should need a year to hit his stride as those coaches did. The players are in place for Kelly to make a BCS bowl right off the bat - similar to Weis, I suppose, except the hope is that Kelly will take the program to an even higher level after the first couple seasons rather than crashing and burning.
I've posited this before, but I could see Kelly's path at ND hewing closely to that of Meyer at Florida, with Weis playing the role of Zook as the mediocre coach who nonetheless set a fine table from a talent standpoint. Meyer won nine games in his first season (I expect 10 from Kelly, in part because of an extra game), then won it all in Year 2 (I expect Kelly to at least make a good run with Crist a senior in his second season as a starter). Meyer then took a step back in Year 3 (as Kelly probably will after the stellar 2008 class graduates) before turning into a perennial juggernaut in Year 4.
(Yes, I have very high hopes for Kelly. Sue me.)
Part II: The ND Defensive Recruiting Myth
Again, this is sophomores through 5th years, and the ratings are from Rivals:
FLORIDA
3 Five Stars
19 Four Stars
4 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
7 Top 100
ALABAMA
3 Five Stars
18 Four Stars
8 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
7 Top 100
OKLAHOMA
1 Five Star
20 Four Stars
8 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
9 Top 100
OHIO STATE
2 Five Stars
18 Four Stars
11 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
5 Top 100
TEXAS
3 Five Stars
16 Four Stars
7 Three Stars
2 Two Stars
9 Top 100
NOTRE DAME
1 Five Stars
18 Four Stars
6 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
6 Top 100
GEORGIA
2 Five Stars
15 Four Stars
10 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
5 Top 100
LSU
3 Five Stars
13 Four Stars
11 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
7 Top 100
MICHIGAN
1 Five Star
12 Four Stars
12 Three Stars
0 Two Stars
4 Top 100