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a little grist for the punt return discussion

by Jay ?, San Diego, Monday, August 05, 2013, 08:30

"Mathlete" at mgoblog ran some numbers on fumbles / fumble recoveries:

http://mgoblog.com/content/maximizing-your-fumble-luck

Bullet points:

* Sacks produce fumble at an obscene rate compared to any other play

* Don’t skimp on the fundamentals, poor snaps and hand-offs are a major source of fumbles

* Positive plays are good for the offense, getting past the line of scrimmage greatly reduces the chance that a fumble occurs, but increases the defense’s chances at a recovery if one is forced

* Hitting ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage is a good way for a defense to generate fumbles

* HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL! Punt returns are the most likely play to result in a lost fumble.

* Not all fumbles are created equally, defenses recover nearly 70% of fumbles that are forced and only 45% when they are not.

* Quarterbacks are fumble prone but their teams are better at recovering them than other players’ fumbles

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Tags:
turnovers, special teams

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