Bill Connelly's Notre Dame preview
by Jim (fisherj08)
, A Samoan kid's laptop, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:27 (4772 days ago)
he expects big things from ND this year
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/5/16/4334450/notre-dame-football-2013-sea...
pretty solid preview
by Pat, in the cloud, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:09 (4772 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)
outside of forgetting about Amir Carlisle and having Cam McDaniel's position wrong he did a very good job.
I have no idea how he can crank these out for every team like he does. I can't even imagine how hard it is for teams that don't have tons of online resources for info.
and he wrote a book this offseason, too
by LaFortune Teller
, South Bend, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 18:10 (4771 days ago) @ Pat
program trajectory: It's strong. Really strong.
by Jay, San Diego, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 09:54 (4772 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)
One fun way to figure out where a team stands is to play the "How many ifs?" game. How many "Ifs" does it take to put a team at a certain level?
Top 15: If Golson avoids a serious slump, and if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, this should be a Top 15 team based solely on defensive potential and some decent big-play ability on offense.
Top 10: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, and if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, this is likely a Top 10 team.
Top 5: If Golson avoids a serious slump, if a young running back can provide some level of reliability, if one of the freshman or sophomore DBs breaks through, and if one more receiver breaks through alongside Jones and Daniels, this is likely a Top 5 team.
This isn't an overt number of "ifs." Notre Dame broke into the Top 15 in 2011, then played like it in 2012. I think slight improvement is likely again, though another undefeated record in close games probably isn't. Against a slate the features seven teams projected in the Top 31 (four at home), the Irish will need a couple more breaks to again make the title game, but at this point one cannot question the program's trajectory: It's strong.
Really strong. Whether people saw it 12 months ago doesn't really matter; they see it now.
that's exciting
by HumanRobot
, Cybertron, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 09:58 (4772 days ago) @ Jay
Where's the "if Golson becomes a 500 foot tall football robot" scenario?
probably top -10. concept drawing
by Jay, San Diego, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:01 (4772 days ago) @ HumanRobot
edited by Jay, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:04
![[image]](http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20121223034549/protagonist/images/d/d6/Iron_Giant.jpg)
So the next Shamrock Series game will be Reykjavik?
by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 11:39 (4771 days ago) @ Jay
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Not gonna lie: That F+ progression graph is sexxxy.
by PAK, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 09:48 (4772 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)
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I think the "F" in "F+" stands for "Fuzzy"
by Jay, San Diego, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:05 (4772 days ago) @ PAK
It is a witch's brew of a stat.
witch's brew!
by HumanRobot
, Cybertron, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 13:29 (4771 days ago) @ Jay
Bitches Brew
by Samari, Bahston, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 16:10 (4771 days ago) @ HumanRobot
Except the 2007 part
by CK08, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 09:56 (4772 days ago) @ PAK
We were stunningly bad that year.
This is always interesting
by CK08, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:39 (4772 days ago) @ Jim (fisherj08)
Connelly's adjusted scores from last year (i.e. what the score would have been had we been playing an average team with an average number of turnovers and penalties):
Navy: W, 39-26
Purdue: W, 24-19
MSU: W, 29-13
Michigan: W, 25-20
Miami: W, 41-19
Stanford: W, 34-22
BYU: W, 51-19 (!!)
Oklahoma: W, 34-20
Pitt: W, 35-18
BC: W, 35-24
Wake: W, 44-17
SC: W, 37-26
Alabama: W, 42-33 (!!!!!!)
This is where Bill's approach and mine are most distinct.
by LaFortune Teller
, South Bend, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 13:01 (4771 days ago) @ CK08
Using adjusted scoring margins as listed here, Bill ranks ND's performances as follows:
BYU
Wake
Miami
Pitt
Michigan State
Oklahoma
Navy
Stanford
USC
BC
Alabama
Michigan
Purdue
My FEI adjusted performances in order are as follows:
Oklahoma
Michigan State
Miami
Stanford
USC
Michigan
Wake
BYU
Navy
BC
Pitt
Alabama
Purdue
Poot and I were discussing the BYU game via twitter
by Jim (fisherj08)
, A Samoan kid's laptop, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:41 (4772 days ago) @ CK08
Tommy Rees at QB + 200 yards rushing + really good BYU defense + ALL OF THE MISSED OPPORTUNITIES = a weird adjusted score.
Sports Math!
by NDTex
, Dallas, TX, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:40 (4772 days ago) @ CK08
Perhaps Kelly studied the F/+ rankings along with game film when he said we were close.
--
Extra Life | Twitch | Twitter |
I like sports math
by Greg, seemingly ranch, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:58 (4772 days ago) @ NDTex
And wings. And beer.
--
The 2007 ND-UCLA game was a once in a lifetime experience, I hope
I come here mainly for the math.
by scriptcomesfirst
, Thursday, May 16, 2013, 08:57 (4772 days ago) @ NDTex
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![[image]](http://i.imgur.com/bHhJf.png)
![[image]](http://speechdudes.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/robby-the-robot.jpg)